Live Cash Puzzler. This is a good one!

[rssurfer54]

Fold preflop

+100.

 

[rssurfer54]

I don't mind opening with Axs there. It's calling the 3bet that's bad.

Even with only 50 bb?

 

[tpb221]

But this does beg an interesting question. What if someone does notice? I'm gone. There's no way to identify me. What happens to the pot?

Did youu have a player's card. They could identify you by that and bag up your chips after you left.

 

[fkucdaw0rld]

Did youu have a player's card. They could identify you by that and bag up your chips after you left.

yea if it was misread then they'll definitely find a way to contact you and get you ur money back somehow....they wont just leave it be if they were wrong

 

[WVHillbilly]

Even with only 50 bb?

In a live game with a smallish raise like OP made I think it's likely +EV since we're likely to get lots of callers and we're fairly likely to win a decent amount if we hit.

 

[cAPSLOCK]

Live 1/2 plays a lot more like 2/5 on-line.

Hrm? you mean 2cent/5cent?

 

[Four Dogs]

Filter those hands by ones where you call a 3bet OOP and see if it's the same

Sorry for the delay. This is a good question, maybe one that deserves it's own thread but for now I'll just post the short answer. Folding everytime you get raised is bad poker, calling everytime is worse. So what do you use as a criterion for calling and folding. Well, in the case above had I simply been raised by the one in position oponenent I certainly would have folded. But after the BB called with good reason to believe the cut-off would as well, I'm getting pretty good odds to stay in the hand with anything other than absolute junk. In this case I think A2s qualifies as a keeper.
This is a pretty specific situation and I'm not sure I have a large enough database to make meaningful conclusion but here it is.
First I ran a filter for everytime I open raised at a full table (7-9 players) with any hand and then called a 3 bet. There were 444 occurances and the results were pretty horrifying. -2.84BB/100 with a 30.18% winrate for a loss of $389.99.
If we looked no closer we might conclude that we should just always fold to a 3 bet right? But in the example above I was getting tempting odds to call so I changed my filter to include only hands where 3-4 people see the flop. Things changed considerably. There were 188 occurances, as expected my winrate dropped to 28.19% but my BB/100 rose to .62BB/100. My 2 biggest winning hands were AJs and A5s.
Conclusion, Fold spec hands to one raiser, call with 3:1 or better odds.
Gotta go.

 

[WVHillbilly]

Did you also filter for hands where you only had 50bb? I doubt it.

It's a losing play. I guarantee it.

 

[Four Dogs]

Did you also filter for hands where you only had 50bb? I doubt it.

It's a losing play. I guarantee it.

Not sure the best way to go about doing that but when I filter for only the hands I won my avg BB/100 = 24.43. That's Big Bets, not Big Blinds so we're pretty close to the 50 I was carrying. There were 53 hands. Of those, 18 were hands where I won less than 50bb's 32 were more. The biggest win in terms of BB's was JTs with 101BB/100 = 200bb/100 +/-.

 

[Four Dogs]

Did you also filter for hands where you only had 50bb? I doubt it.

It's a losing play. I guarantee it.

Not sure the best way to go about doing that but when I filter for only the hands I won my avg BB/100 = 24.43. That's Big Bets, not Big Blinds so we're pretty close to the 50 I was carrying. There were 53 hands. Of those, 18 were hands where I won less than 50bb's 32 were more. The biggest win in terms of BB's was JTs with 101BB/100 = 200bb/100 +/-.

 

[Pascal-lf]

When you filter it only for hands won? That's completely irrelevant, of course you are going to have a high average bb when you only win money...

Flatting here pre is bad. You have put 1/5 of your stack in the middle playing for effectively two pair or better. A pair of 2s will never be good, and a pair of aces will likely lead to you losing your stack. Therefore, the number of flops you actually like is tiny. Given the strength shown by the other players in the hand, and the fact live players find it basically impossible to fold a pair or a draw, your stack size of essentially 1 pot sized bet is never going to let you bluff anyone, and if you call a flop bet you are essentially committing yourself.

Basically, fold pre. It's plays like these which are the reason you are doing badly these last few weeks.

 

[Four Dogs]

When you filter it only for hands won? That's completely irrelevant, of course you are going to have a high average bb when you only win money...

Flatting here pre is bad. You have put 1/5 of your stack in the middle playing for effectively two pair or better. A pair of 2s will never be good, and a pair of aces will likely lead to you losing your stack. Therefore, the number of flops you actually like is tiny. Given the strength shown by the other players in the hand, and the fact live players find it basically impossible to fold a pair or a draw, your stack size of essentially 1 pot sized bet is never going to let you bluff anyone, and if you call a flop bet you are essentially committing yourself.

Basically, fold pre. It's plays like these which are the reason you are doing badly these last few weeks.

lol. ok. I'm not doing bad. I'm up $900 in 3 week.

 

[Pascal-lf]

Which means you are either running like god, the rest of your game is amazing, or you are just better than everyone else. If it's #1, then expect it to turn around at some point. If it's #2, then I applaud you, but it's still part of your game which is a leak and you should work on. If it's #3, then if you do this twice a session and played 6 sessions in 3 weeks, then that's effectively $120 of $900 you've burnt flatting 3 bets OOP, and if you've won say two then you are running above EV and it won't keep happening.

Don't be results orientated just because you are winning, however easy it is

 

[Four Dogs]

Which means you are either running like god, the rest of your game is amazing, or you are just better than everyone else. If it's #1, then expect it to turn around at some point. If it's #2, then I applaud you, but it's still part of your game which is a leak and you should work on. If it's #3, then if you do this twice a session and played 6 sessions in 3 weeks, then that's effectively $120 of $900 you've burnt flatting 3 bets OOP, and if you've won say two then you are running above EV and it won't keep happening.

Don't be results orientated just because you are winning, however easy it is

I am not results oriented, I just don't think you should be making comments about my recent success or lack thereof based on one posted hand. A leak it may be but if so, it's a small one, at least as far as on-line play goes. Based on my own hand histories, raising from middle to late position with this kind of hand has been +/EV, whether or not I'm getting the right odds to call a 3 bet with is another matter. But if I was results oriented I'd point out that I didn't lose the hand due to any mislpay and that my turn shove almost certainy succeeded in getting a better hand to fold and a worse hand to call. The results were unfortunate but aside from probably misreading the final board, I'm not unhappy with the way I played the hand.

 

[Pascal-lf]

I'm not saying raising isn't proper, but peeling 3bets off that size of a stack isn't profitable and in that hand if you peel and then fold you are essentially blowing 10bb, which I'm not sure can be considered a "small" leak..if you do it twice a session, which is probably 200 hands at most, that's -10bb/100 to your winrate which is huge

 

[WVHillbilly]

I'm not saying raising isn't proper, but peeling 3bets off that size of a stack isn't profitable and in that hand if you peel and then fold you are essentially blowing 10bb, which I'm not sure can be considered a "small" leak..if you do it twice a session, which is probably 200 hands at most, that's -10bb/100 to your winrate which is huge

A 200 hand live session??? That's like 8 hours worth of play! That's another reason why trying to infer anything just because you're up/down/BE after 3 weeks of live play is worthless. Maybe after 3 years.

 

[Aldito]

I am not results oriented, I just don't think you should be making comments about my recent success or lack thereof based on one posted hand. A leak it may be but if so, it's a small one, at least as far as on-line play goes.

Not a small leak