Little thing about pocket pairs

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Dingodaddy23

Guest
I believe its +EV to call a reasonable flop bet with a pocket pair IF their is already a pair on the board. Reason being that IF you hit your set on the turn, you most likely will de-stack the guy with the trips. Huge implied odds. Just something to think about.
 
starfall

starfall

Visionary
It's something that has to be done very rarely - because you've only got a small chance of improving since you only have 2 outs. A minimum raise when the blinds are relatively small compared to both of your stacks, and it may be worthwhile calling sometimes, but given that you're likely to have to pay on the river as well, you're not looking to put money in unless it's less than 4% of either stack - most of the time it will be more than this so the cost of the times you don't hit will exceed the payout when you do. Even the implied odds of getting one or other of you all-in when you have the best hand can't help you if the odds against you hitting your hand are too high.
 
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Dingodaddy23

Guest
Sorry, I should have wrote to call just one bet, not a bet on the turn if you dont hit. I think I would be more inclined to make this call deep in a MTT than in a SNG, and definately not make this call as a shortstack. Its something to put in your arsenal for playing bigstack poker.
 
Coryan

Coryan

Guest
I would almost never make this play. The odds are so poorly against me hitting my set with just one card (4%). I am going to pay 25X for the one time that I get the set on the turn. So now I have to get at least a 25X return on my investment to make it pay. 25:1 implied odds are VERY hard to find.

There are so many things that will cause me not to get that 25X. Maybe my opponent wasn't betting the trips and won't call anything big bets on the turn. Maybe the stacks are not deep enough. Maybe the board is flush or has other scare cards that worry my opponent. Maybe my opponent hit a better FH and I am drawing dead (or nearly so). Way too many problems for me to assume I will stack my opponent for 25X the call of his flop bet.

Therefore, I really don't like this play.

CORYAN
 
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AceZWylD

Visionary
Depends on the PP and the size of the bet after the flop. Sitting at a 1/2 table I wouldn't call a $8 bet with 22. I don't care about the "possibility" of hitting a set in the next 2 cards because the PROBABILITY is against me. Sure, there is a 3/10 chance that I would hit my set, but 7/10 times i'm losing $15 on that bet. I'll play it safe and wait for a better opportunity.
 
spore

spore

Rock Star
My personal philosophy with pocket pairs (less than pocket 10s) is basically.. I hit the set or I'm gone. However, if the board pairs lower than what I have.. ie flop is 337 and I have pocket 9's.. I will bet aggressively. But if I have pocket 5's and the board is TT8, I'm waving bye bye! ;)
 
Coryan

Coryan

Guest
Better check your math.

AceZWylD said:
Depends on the PP and the size of the bet after the flop. Sitting at a 1/2 table I wouldn't call a $8 bet with 22. I don't care about the "possibility" of hitting a set in the next 2 cards because the PROBABILITY is against me. Sure, there is a 3/10 chance that I would hit my set, but 7/10 times i'm losing $15 on that bet. I'll play it safe and wait for a better opportunity.

Am I missing something? How do you get 3 in 10 odds to hit a set with a pocket pair? Are you thinking those are the odds to hit on one of the five board cards? If so, you are still overestimating your odds.

CORYAN
 
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Dingodaddy23

Guest
this post was more geared toward the latter stages of MTTs. I would never make this play in a cash game
 
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AceZWylD

Visionary
Coryan said:
Am I missing something? How do you get 3 in 10 odds to hit a set with a pocket pair? Are you thinking those are the odds to hit on one of the five board cards? If so, you are still overestimating your odds.

CORYAN

My experience is that I hit a set somewhere on the board 2 or 3 times out of 10. If I haven't hit it on the flop, then the odds obviously go down. I was rushing to get this post up because my son was crying. The odds on turn/river drop to about 1/10. Either way though, not enough to commit any chips to the pot if I don't hit the set on the flop.
 
Marklar

Marklar

Rock Star
too many times i've been burned on three of a kind. This last time I had a pair of Ks then a pair of Tens get thrown out. I didn't take the guy seriously, I know him personally, he checked, I bet, then he raised my bet. I thought he was just pulling my chain. So I stick it out through to the end and he does indeed have that third ten.

I'm now much more cautious about any pair thrown out there on the board. I view the pocket pairs as the weakest poker hand, besides nothing at all, and that you should only bet on with caution.
 
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Dingodaddy23

Guest
pocket pairs are one of the STRONGEST hands in holdem. When they get help from the flop. If they dont get help, then it's easy to toss them. Thats the beauty. You can turn a big hand with them, but if you miss with them, they're easy to toss.
 
spore

spore

Rock Star
I view the pocket pairs as the weakest poker hand
I would say you have this notion because you have been burned before. It is entirely possible, however.. AA-55 are all +EV, and thusly are strong Hold'Em hands. You do have to be cautious when the board pairs.. but that's just down to putting your opponent on a hand. If you get check-raised with a pair on the board.. you're probably beat ;)
 
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Coryan

Coryan

Guest
Pocket pairs weak?

Marklar said:
too many times i've been burned on three of a kind. This last time I had a pair of Ks then a pair of Tens get thrown out. I didn't take the guy seriously, I know him personally, he checked, I bet, then he raised my bet. I thought he was just pulling my chain. So I stick it out through to the end and he does indeed have that third ten.

I'm now much more cautious about any pair thrown out there on the board. I view the pocket pairs as the weakest poker hand, besides nothing at all, and that you should only bet on with caution.
First, welcome to CardsChat and making your first post! (want to start positive)

BUT COME ON! The hand you describe is not about your KK being weak...it is about your opponents hand being strong...much stronger than yours. You have to be able to let the big pairs go when the board conspires against you...and learn to respect the check-raise. I dropped AA a couple days ago when the board flopped 9-8-7 (all diamonds) and another 9 on the turn. Opponent had called my pot sized bet on flop and raised my 1/2 pot bet on turn. I folded. My AA weren't weak...but they sure as hell were not strong with that board and my opponent's aggression.

Middle to small PPs can also be dangerous weapons. But, as has been said, you play them for set value...flop it or drop it! When you hit the set you have a hidden monster that can make a killing at NL/PL games...and do well in limit games.

Again, welcome to CardsChat, but I encourage you to rethink your position on pocket pairs and learn how to play them for maximum return and minimal loses.
 
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