Level 17 big stack tourny dilemma

[Four Dogs]

This is a real situation from last nights 30k guaranteed at poker stars.

It's the very late stages of the tournament and with over 400,000 chips I'm 4th with 40 players remaining out of a field of about 3100.I've been sitting at this table for 25+ hands and have a pretty good read on the talent. At this stage, most raised hands are won outright and I raise from early position with AKo.The table folds to the CO who shoves his entire stack of 600,000 chips.

My read on him. His enormous stack is not representative of his skill. He's a one trick pony who open shoves with any pair, any A9+, any AXs, any KQ, any e suited high cards QJs+. His range is as big as his chip stack. His OPR is about 12% with about 6% ITM.His success is based on a lot of luck and a lot of bad calls from equally poor players at the table. It's a miracle he got this far.

His read on me. I don't know if he's using any tracking software, but I've been agressive lately, having raised the 2 previous hands and won without a showdown.My success to this point has been based largely on open raises and loose calls from the blinds with good Pot odds.If he's paying attention, there's no way he can put me on a hand as good as AK which makes the lower end of his range all the more likely.

Under ordinary circumstances, a call here is a no brainer, but concidering my almost equally huge stack, do I sacrifice an almost certain final table for a chance to double up to nearly a million chips? Winner takes $5000, if I go out here I walk away with about 60 bucks for 5 hours work.I could do nearly as well in a 1 table SnG.

 

[Joe Slick]

I raise from early position with AKo

How big was the raise and what did you have left for chips to make the call? If you folded, that would have moved you from 4th to what?

 

[Four Dogs]

How big was the raise and what did you have left for chips to make the call? If you folded, that would have moved you from 4th to what?

I don't have access to the HH atm, but I believe the blinds were 3500/7000. I raised to 21,000. Winning the hand would have moved me from 4th to 2nd with about 900,000 chips.

 

[blankoblanco]

Under ordinary circumstances, a call here is a no brainer, but concidering my almost equally huge stack, do I sacrifice an almost certain final table for a chance to double up to nearly a million chips?

at 4th place with 40 players left, it's pretty unlikely that you're looking at an "almost certain final table". 55 big blinds is a lot only relative to the late stages of a tournament, where everyone is usually shortstacked. the fact is, you're really not very deep at all

basically, if his play and range is as you represent it, it's a fistpump call. the call is probably +EV even if tournaments operated on a flat payscale. when you consider how topheavy they are, that 1st place is usually worth like five 6th place finishes, it makes it a very profitable call against the type of range you're talking about

 

[Steveg1976]

I wouldn't hate either a fold or call. In this spot though I think I call and expect to have him crushed when he turns over KJ, or A9. I would do this for two reasons. One is the obvious you are way ahead of his expected range and two it sounds like if you win this hand you can cruise to the final table.

 

[Joe Slick]

Based on the additional information, I'd fold here. You're not pot committed to this hand and AK is hardly the nuts. You're probably in a coin flip situation, at best.

A better opportunity should come along. If it doesn't, you should go out with a bigger payoff.

 

[Steveg1976]

^^ If he has his opponent dominated which is very likely from the description of the hand this is not a coin flip it is closer to an 70-30 or even 80-20 with him as the favorite.

 

[Effexor]

I fold this.

Late in an mtt, the ONLY times I'll take a coinflip is (1) If I am getting short stacked, which in this case you are not and (2) Against people with smaller stacks where I won't get crippled from losing, and in this case you'd be out.

MTTs are about survival, and with 40 people left, 4th in chips, there is no reason to play bingo with some Kill Phil retard.

If he had lots less chips, call.
If you were on the FT, call.
If you had lots less chips, call.
As the situation was though, fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

Based on the additional information, I'd fold here. You're not pot committed to this hand and AK is hardly the nuts. You're probably in a coin flip situation, at best.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.129% 54.49% 03.64% 1892047512 126496860.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 41.871% 38.23% 03.64% 1327511280 126496860.00 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, A9o+, KQo }

 

[Four Dogs]

Good answers all, er.. except for kall3 who seems to have missed the point. Since I'm not gloating over an amazing victory, the results must be obvious. I insta called and he turned over 77. His pair held and I went to bed.
In a very real sense I feel as though I took a match to a $1000 bill. I'm not incapable of folding AK preflop, in fact I did just that with AKs earlier in the tournament, but in this case, I think I needed to make that call. As combuboom pointed out, the final table was far from a sure thing as this hand illustrates. Anything can happen and with blinds crawling up your ass, you can easily see that huge stack evaporate. Perhaps I was wrong, but I just can't see myself folding AK vs this range. If this had been a satellite no problem, but in this case, the only meaningful money is found at the final table.

More responses please. I'm not done thinking about thisyet.

 

[Effexor]

T At this stage, most raised hands are won outright

So why not skip the coinflip and steal blinds instead? I think the risk vs reward with such a deep stack just isn't worth it in this situation.

 

[Joe Slick]

Don't be so hard on yourself.

You had enough skill to make it that far into the tournament. Believe that it's not an isolated incident. There are other final tables in your future.

Congratulations on a well played game!!

 

[Dwilius]

Late in an mtt, the ONLY times I'll take a coinflip is (1) If I am getting short stacked, which in this case you are not and (2) Against people with smaller stacks where I won't get crippled from losing, and in this case you'd be out

This is my philosophy, even though it wasn't clear it would be a coinflip here. It sounds like the table was letting you stay in good shape by picking up blinds and maybe you could have waited to get villain into a sure 70/30 or better with him pushing that range of hands (if a couple others don't bust him first).

 

[Steveg1976]

I think this may be one of those cases were the results are swaying your opinion. If this was an $3 180 man S&G with the same information wouldn't you make the same call wanting to win it rather than just cash? Just my thoughts.

 

[Joe Slick]

I think this may be one of those cases were the results are swaying your opinion. If this was an $3 180 man S&G with the same information wouldn't you make the same call wanting to win it rather than just cash? Just my thoughts.

This is a great question but, perhaps, a bad example. He's already in the final 40 out of 3100. In a 180 player tournament, proportionally speaking, he would already be heads up or at least in the final 3.

Maybe a better question would be something like "Would you do the same thing in the wsop Main Event?" where there is a huge amount of money on the line.

BTW, I'm interested in this because this is something I struggle with all the time. I get into the money a high percentage of the time and usually find a way to screw up, often within reach of the final table. Sometimes it's tough to tell whether you made a bad play or were just unlucky. (I usually go with "bad play" because then I get to beat myself up. )

 

[ChuckTs]

Well at least he's giving his thoughts rather than just saying I AGREE NH

 

[putnam11]

What were the payouts? If you folded what place would u be in?I hate when i get that close to the final table and some luckyass rtard takes me out lol.
Personnally at that close Id fold. Id stay out of hands with him, and when he folds just play with the others, theyd probably be playing really tight trying to survive, you could bully them

 

[Four Dogs]

^^ If he has his opponent dominated which is very likely from the description of the hand this is not a coin flip it is closer to an 70-30 or even 80-20 with him as the favorite.

Even though I put him on a wide range which included some easily dominated hands, I have to give the edge to the pocket pairs as he wasn't open shoving but reraising all-in vs an early position raiser, laggy as I may have seemed to him. I think the Poker Stove odds ChuckTs posted below are more realistic.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 58.129% 54.49% 03.64% 1892047512 126496860.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 41.871% 38.23% 03.64% 1327511280 126496860.00 { 22+, A2s+, KJs+, QJs, A9o+, KQo }

So why not skip the coinflip and steal blinds instead? I think the risk vs reward with such a deep stack just isn't worth it in this situation.

Yeah, therein lies the dilemma. I think I'm a better than average tournament player. and I think my advantage really does lie with my ability to outplay my opponents either by picking away at the blinds and antes, or by choosing my spots post flop when I do get called. By allowing my less skilled oppoents to see 5 additional cards I'm playing their game, not mine. Any skill advantage I might have is taken away. But still, if you fold every time someone comes over the top you might as well not raise at all. Granted, he was the only stack at the table that had me covered, but AK is AK: where do you draw the line?

Don't be so hard on yourself.

You had enough skill to make it that far into the tournament. Believe that it's not an isolated incident. There are other final tables in your future.

Congratulations on a well played game!!

Thanks Joe

This is a great question but, perhaps, a bad example. He's already in the final 40 out of 3100. In a 180 player tournament, proportionally speaking, he would already be heads up or at least in the final 3.

Maybe a better question would be something like "Would you do the same thing in the WSOP Main Event?" where there is a huge amount of money on the line.

BTW, I'm interested in this because this is something I struggle with all the time. I get into the money a high percentage of the time and usually find a way to screw up, often within reach of the final table. Sometimes it's tough to tell whether you made a bad play or were just unlucky. (I usually go with "bad play" because then I get to beat myself up. )

Isn't that crazy? I actually did win a 180 seat SnG the other day for $560. It took about 2-1/2 hours. In this case I slogged through over 3000 other players in almost 5 hours and finished in the top 1.5% for 1/10th as much.
I may reconsider playing in these PS Guarantees where the payout structure is so rediculously weighed in favor of the final table.

I think I feel another thread topic coming on.

 

[aliengenius]

In a tournament, when you take a "coin flip" it's 50/50 chipEV, but it's actually negative $EV, as when either player loses the "lost" EV goes to the remaining player as a result of the (elimination).

Understanding this and exploiting others understanding of it the bubble) iis key to winning.

You can plug his range into pokerstove, but that only gives you the +chipEV, not the acutaly +$EV of the situation.

fwiw (I didn't plug it in, and a call might still be good: combu's comments are spot on :, but a fold isn't terrible here either, especially if you have a situation where you can easily steal repeatedly in the future without risk).
See Moshman, p. 8-11.

 

[Four Dogs]

I haven't read this book, but I do understand the concept, and believe me when I say, I would have folded AQ even though I would still have been well ahead of his range (as I saw it). But in making these decisions one must also concider the overwhelming advantage a chip stack of this magnitude would give you, especially when the prize structure is so weighted in favor of the final table and particularly the last three spots. With 40 players remaining, I wonder how much value I really gave up.