How many outs do we REALLY have?

[FixIt]

Now it sounds like you're saying that the 20% to hit a 9-out draw with one card to come already takes into account the fact that outs might be missing. Is that what you're saying? Is the 20% merely an average?

Wait, shouldn't you have done 28:9 for remaining cards in the deck to 9 good cards, which is 3.1 to 1 or less than 25%?

It's 20% because there are 9 outs in all unknown cards in the deck (45 after the turn). In reality if all 9 outs are still in the deck after dealing the turn card, then in a 9 handed game there are 24 cards gone. 18 dealt to players, 3 on the flop, 1 on the turn, and 2 cards were burned on the flop and turn. This leaves 28 cards in the deck, 9 good 19 bad. Therefore the likelyhood of hitting your draw is 19:9 or 2.1:1. Now you're hitting your flush 32.25% of the time.

 

[bilgert]

It's irrelevant whether or not the outs have been dealt or not. It's only relevant that you don't have them and you don't know who has them- be it with players, the burn pile or the active deck.

I want to better understand the risk associated with playing drawing hands, and I'm publishing two poker books next year in which I want to address this. If we find out in a test that in those 'unseen' cards, let's say 50% of the time there is an average of 1 or more outs missing in a draw then we would need to consider altering the conventional odds of hitting. At the very least, players should consider the risks of not having all their outs available when playing drawing hands.

 

[Mase31683]

No, there would be 28 cards remaining. 9 of them are good, 19 of them are not. In straight odds it is 19:9 against.

And yes, that's correct. 20% can be described as the result of taking missing outs and such into account.

 

[cardplayer52]

This is just incorrect.

i used the 15% and 85% as an eg. but no it's not incorrect. those times you take outs away will be compensated for those times you take non-outs away.

 

[SavagePenguin]

...sometimes others are holding some or some are burned by the dealer. So those hands have less actual outs. Its never more than the maximum outs. So how would it even out.

You're looking at it wrong.

What matters is "outs in relationship to the cards that are left." If you only had a two-outer, it's no big deal if there are only three cards left in the deck.

If one of the other eight people at the table has a heart and you're going for a heart flush, that is good! Yes, you are down one out, but that means that there are fifteen fewer bad cards in the pile to draw from.
That is, on a 2 heart flop instead of having 9 outs you might have only 8 outs, but 9 outs in a pool of 47 remaining cards (15%) is worse than 8 outs in a pool of 31 (26%).

 

[WVHillbilly]

I'd say you have about a 100% chance of your two books being horrible based on this thread, but who knows maybe you still have outs.

 

[Egon Towst]

I'd say you have about a 100% chance of your two books being horrible based on this thread, but who knows maybe you still have outs.

Unkind, but sadly true. It`s usually considered wise to develop a grasp of the basic principles of one`s topic before writing about it.

 

[blankoblanco]

oh my god this thread is hilarious. publish your book asap sir

 

[SavagePenguin]

However, built into that formula is the assumption that you ALWAYS have 9 outs...in other words, only the times they do not hold your outs, so there is no evening out. If tests show that on average you miss 2 outs on a flush draw, then the conventional theory of hitting cards and pot odds is in question, or just needs to be tweaked.

No, your missing the context of those outs.
Tthe calculation is based on the relationship between the outs you need and the number of cards you have to draw them from.

A two outer is bad when there are 47 cards to draw from.
A two outer is excellent if there are only three cards to draw from.

In fact, with that formula you are already *assuming* that your opponents have some of your outs.

If you flop a flush draw, you have 9 outs. Against 8 other people, you're assuming that their 16 cards hole cards have as many hearts and they would on average. If they have more, your chances of winning drop. If they have fewer, you chances of winning increase. But you do not know, so you just calculate based on known factors.

Sometimes you will have a worse chance than you calculate, sometimes you will have move, but in the long run you will be pretty close.

 

[switch0723]

adsgjhsdfkgjsdfk wv stole the 'insert joke about published books not working out' post before i could get here

 

[IcyBlueAce]

Well if your good at reading people based on how fast they bet, how much they bet, how often they raise preflop, ect. then you should be able to caculate better probable outs -- but thats the best you can do without flipping cards over.

 

[Panamajoe]

Sometimes you will have a worse chance than you calculate, sometimes you will have move, but in the long run you will be pretty close.

So SP, are you saying that those chances you mentioned are incalculable, or just not worth calculating?

That's all that seems odd to me now, that we can not actually figure out what your chances "really" are.

 

[thepokerkid123]

So SP, are you saying that those chances you mentioned are incalculable, or just not worth calculating?

That's all that seems odd to me now, that we can not actually figure out what your chances "really" are.

The chances can't be calculated because you don't have the information as to where the cards are. It's random, it's like saying will I be above my expected proffit for my next session or bellow? For both problems it's variance, that's all.

If you wanted to do this, you'd need to base it on pre-flop action as that would indicate where some of the cards are, for straight draws a large number of folds would reduce the number of small cards left in the deck and this would also help flush draws because say the flop was AKQ with two to a flush and you hold J9s, now there's a good chance that a lot of the low cards that you need for your flush are in the muck rather than still in the deck.

 

[XPOKERCHIC]

Does anyone know of a website, a poker research company or software that can answer the following question:

When on a draw (minimum 6 outs), how often are we missing at least one of our outs due to someone holding it, folding it or the dealer burning it? What about two or more outs?

Thanks!

This would be very hard to do. Table size may have to be considered as well. Ex: 6-max=12 cards dealt out vs 9-max=18 cards dealt out. Great theory though. X

 

[FixIt]

Easy, boys. I'm so used to working with the beautifully simple rule of 4 and 2 to calculate pot odds and implied odds that I actually haven't thought about the theory behind it for a long time. Thanks for the refresher.

Unkind, but sadly true. It`s usually considered wise to develop a grasp of the basic principles of one`s topic before writing about it.

 

[rcrocketman]

Quick and simple:
Having a decreased chance of hitting your outs because they are burned or being held by someone else is exactly offset by your *increased* chance of hitting those outs when the burn cards or your opponents do not have them.

In other words, it equals out.

Since we do not know the burn or opponents cards, we calculate out outs on the known factors.

Don't worry about things you cannot know and calculate your outs vs the rest of the deck.

I concur with this.
One thing you would also want to consider is whether or not you have 'clean outs'.

 

[rcrocketman]

So SP, are you saying that those chances you mentioned are incalculable, or just not worth calculating?

That's all that seems odd to me now, that we can not actually figure out what your chances "really" are.

Why would it seem 'odd' when we're talking about information that we can't possibly know?

 

[SavagePenguin]

So SP, are you saying that those chances you mentioned are incalculable, or just not worth calculating?

That's all that seems odd to me now, that we can not actually figure out what your chances "really" are.

They are calculable as long as you are given the information.
...and we don't.
...so yeah they are incalculable.

But if you average out those incalculables over the long run you are left with the same outs/percentages as you would against the entire remaining deck, so that's what we calculate against.

 

[Makwa]

Har har har

I like Egon and Savage here, the reasoning is true. Most of the other stuff is fluff.

BUT

If you are really concerned with more accurately calculating outs, play Stud or similar game instead. At least then you can mainly see which cards are live and which aren't.

If you don't know what Stud is, it doesn't matter how many outs you have... IMHO.

 

[Egon Towst]

Easy, boys. I'm so used to working with the beautifully simple rule of 4 and 2 to calculate pot odds and implied odds that I actually haven't thought about the theory behind it for a long time. Thanks for the refresher.

I take that to mean that you recognise your error. In which case, respect, sir. It`s a good man who can see when he is mistaken.

 

[belladonna05]

oh lawd.....these threads all need their own sticky.....thanks for the lols
https://www.cardschat.com/forum/poker-goals-challenges-wins-46/i-lost-pocket-bulls-again-119565/

 

[Rldetheflop]

Ok I see the point now.

the 4 and 2 rule does not use max outs to figure pot odds but the average number of outs in that situation.

I thought that this calculated best case scenario but now I see that it doesnt.

 

[Rldetheflop]

It's 20% because there are 9 outs in all unknown cards in the deck (45 after the turn). In reality if all 9 outs are still in the deck after dealing the turn card, then in a 9 handed game there are 24 cards gone. 18 dealt to players, 3 on the flop, 1 on the turn, and 2 cards were burned on the flop and turn. This leaves 28 cards in the deck, 9 good 19 bad. Therefore the likelyhood of hitting your draw is 19:9 or 2.1:1. Now you're hitting your flush 32.25% of the time.

This is the quote that did it for me. This explains it perfectly. Thank you

 

[Panamajoe]

Why would it seem 'odd' when we're talking about information that we can't possibly know?

Well, we can't possibly know the outcome of a coin flip, but we CAN calculate the probaility and odds of it hitting a particular outcome. How is the analysis fof how many diamonds are available post flop any different?

 

[dj11]

The fixation with exact odds, to multiple decimal places is semi-absurd.

The first time Bond sees Le Chiffre (http://www.universalexports.net/Movies/royale06-pokergame.shtml) spout 3 digit odds was a great disservice to most poker players. I don't doubt there are some savants playing the game today that actually could spout of the odds further than 3 decimal places. But what they can do computationally is made up for by the fact they are seldom good at playing against real live players or even real online players.

As each piece of new info on any hand is revealed, the odds change somewhat. But at any point actual odds can only be calculated by the facts you have. Separate calculations about implied perceptions (does villain hold a pair of a card I need?) while exciting, are often disastrous.

I am less of a exact odds kind of player, and more organic about my odds. Don't take this wrong, perhaps I have internalized the odds charts into useable info and I seldom break out actual numbers in my thinking.

The notion of .xxx odds over complicates things IMHO. When you get to the point of splitting the 2nd or 3rd decimal place you have already made up your mind and are more likely looking for some justifiable snappy comeback post hand.

All that said, if you find something interesting covering tests or examples with sample sizes in the millions of hands range, please post em here......