thanks for the replies!
ok maybe i should describe my strategy more in detail:
i know it is exploitable but most limpers are passive fish who just wanna hit something and wont exploit anyone. but true it doesnt work that well with the more agressive and tricky ones.
so i bet every dry flop with air and every river if villain checks back flop and turn (vs 1-2 oponents). its just unlikely that he got something strong and he cant just always call a pot sized bet cause i also bet for value like that. only way that comes to my mind how that can be exploitet is that they know exactly that i have a hand when i bet turn or check on a dry flop.
I don't play against passive fish often.. I wish I could consistently find games with full tables of these players, but it just doesn't happen at the stakes I play. I understand what your strategy is and can see it working against certain opponents.
my rebuttal was how often are you up against said opponent, and how do you know that the other opponents such as players like myself have not seen this happen and purposely play this line to exploit you?
If you make it to the river to do the pot sized bet, I understand that you balance your range here and that is a good thing, but the facts are that you will have the goods a lot less than you will have it. So on that fact alone your
expected value is negative in the long run.
I would 3 bet you most of the time on your flop bet. This is another reason why it's exploitable.
Again if you are playing in games with consistent passive fish that don't pay attention to player patterns then absolutely continue on with your strategy because I'm sure it will work, I'm just saying against any opponent paying even half a bit of attention to the game you will get picked off and lose long term.
You need to remember it's not the river bet that will be your downfall in this strategy as much as the bet on the flop. Even though a player like myself will flat call your bet with strong hands and draws and 3bet you with most air hands. If you balanced your flop bet you wouldn't run into this problem, the river pot bet is not horrible but you will get called off light.