Help with expected value

[pokernut]

I feel that I have a good understanding of poker. It's nowhere near where I want it to be but I read, study, and I'm always learning new things so I'm on the right track.

FPaulson or any of you others who seem to have a good understanding of expected value please help me with this concept. This post may make me look stupid because it's obvious that the higher the EV the better. That's a no brainer, but like everything else in poker, I know it can't be that black and white.

Ev seems to be used more with limit and I am a NL player 98% of the time. I am sure there are reasons to still gut a better grasp of EV for NL as well. Is it something that you use strictly preflop or do you use it as a tool post flop as well? How would it change with betting patterns pre-flop? Is it something as simple as the more raises in front of you the more your EV would go down, or is there a more calculated way to figure it out? Really I am just trying to get a better understanding of this to help my game get more solid.

Sorry if this has been posted before but I couldn't find a thread on it.

 

[joosebuck]

it's just the understanding that the move you make is justified by the long run gain.

e.g. calling with your flush draw when getting 4:1 on your money. you are 3:1~ to hit, so in the long run it's a very good +EV move.

 

[pokernut]

So basically if you have a good understanding of pot odds and implied odds (which I feel like I do) then you don't really need to worry about EV because you moves will be justified through odds.

Hey Joose---Have you played much at the local casinos? I'm looking for some live tourney action. I here Harrah's is the best for it. It you've played there or any others, how is it?

 

[Jack Daniels]

You can also check out this Expected Value article in the Articles Section

 

[F Paulsson]

EV is very, very applicable to NL as well. It's the basis of all poker. I'm being forced out of my apartment, though, so I'll have to get back to you. If you're unlucky, it will be late tonight when I get home drunk, and my reply won't make much sense.

Or maybe that's if you're lucky. I'm not sure.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

It's essentially ((probability of winning)*(amount won when we win)) - ((probability of losing)*(amount lost when we lose))

so say we roll a 6-sided die and guess a number, if we're correct we gain $80, if we're wrong we lose $15.

EV = ((1/6)*$80) - ((5/6)*$15) = 13.3 - 12.5 = 0.8

So your EV would be $0.8 (80 cents) per roll of the dice, so obviously it's a good bet. Yes, it's somewhat related to odds, returning to the dice example for instance you know if you're getting better than 5-1 odds that the bet is good because you know the odds of rolling any given number are 5-1.

More complicated instances arise in poker though, because we don't have complete information available to us, so we have to operate through a kind of 'educated guesswork' in giving our opponent possible hands and working out from there what is +EV and what isn't.

 

[joosebuck]

"Hey Joose---Have you played much at the local casinos? I'm looking for some live tourney action. I here Harrah's is the best for it. It you've played there or any others, how is it?"

competition is pretty soft, i play there weekly. however the blind structure sucks for the most part. they rarely have deepstack tourneys so it becomes a push/foldament pretty quickly.

 

[pokernut]

EV is very, very applicable to NL as well. It's the basis of all poker. I'm being forced out of my apartment, though, so I'll have to get back to you. If you're unlucky, it will be late tonight when I get home drunk, and my reply won't make much sense.

Or maybe that's if you're lucky. I'm not sure.

Dorkus laid it out pretty good for me but i'll still look forward to the drunk reply .

 

[Tammy]

Some of FP's best work happens when he's drunk...I'll be looking forward to it as well...

 

[ChuckTs]

Read the article FP wrote. It should clear up any misunderstandings.

 

[pokernut]

Read the article FP wrote. It should clear up any misunderstandings.

Yeah, I just read it, good stuff. I am still finding my way around the site as you can tell. I am quickly realizing that all of the questions I have are touched on already in either a previous thread or article or blog. This place is a plethera of information . I'm glad I stumbled across it.

 

[F Paulsson]

It seems you're unlucky enough to get the hungover reply, but here goes.

By figuring out the action atht gives the highest EV for a certain situation, you sometimes end up taking a course that is counter intuitive. The best example that comes to mind is holding the absolute nuts, something like quad aces. Your opponent is very tight, and you have very little chance to get him to call with a bad hand.

It could very well be that moving all-in gives you the highest EV, despite making him fold the vast majority of the time. The idea is that those few times that he figures you must be bluffing, or he calls with a full house (no one ever folds a full house!) more than makes up for all those times he folds. Sure, you could bet a tiny amount that he'll always call, but again, the few times he calls an all-in can often make up for that as well.

Playing a +EV game means doing what you think will net you the most money against this particular opponent in this particular situation.

 

[joosebuck]

all in +ev moves


pokerstars Game #8071697030: Hold'em No Limit ($0.10/$0.25) - 2007/01/22 - 17:13:48 (ET)
Table 'Algol V' 9-max Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: mahoney01 ($29.40 in chips)
Seat 2: stechyshyn ($7.25 in chips)
Seat 3: Mikele BaBa ($9.55 in chips)
Seat 4: eykey ($12.85 in chips)
Seat 6: Nikkihundo ($10.25 in chips)
Seat 7: nostra3 ($21.95 in chips)
Seat 8: joosebucklol ($40.10 in chips)
Seat 9: TTMaster222 ($47.40 in chips)
stechyshyn: posts small blind $0.10
Mikele BaBa: posts big blind $0.25
skrpec: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to joosebucklol [4d 4c]
eykey: folds
Nikkihundo: folds
nostra3: folds
joosebucklol: calls $0.25
TTMaster222: raises $0.75 to $1
mahoney01: folds
stechyshyn: folds
Mikele BaBa: folds
joosebucklol: calls $0.75
*** FLOP *** [Th 7d Kc]
joosebucklol: checks
TTMaster222: checks
*** TURN *** [Th 7d Kc] 4♠
joosebucklol: checks
TTMaster222: checks
*** RIVER *** [Th 7d Kc 4s] 3♥
joosebucklol: bets $39.10 and is all-in
TTMaster222: calls $39.10
*** SHOW DOWN ***
joosebucklol: shows [4d 4c] (three of a kind, Fours)
TTMaster222: mucks hand
joosebucklol collected $77.55 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $80.55 | Rake $3
Board [Th 7d Kc 4s 3h]
Seat 1: mahoney01 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: stechyshyn (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Mikele BaBa (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: eykey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Nikkihundo folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: nostra3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: joosebucklol showed [4d 4c] and won ($77.55) with three of a kind, Fours
Seat 9: TTMaster222 mucked [Ks Tc]

 

[pokernut]

LOL, that is +EV. I play like this normally. If I think someone will either fold or call no matter what the bet is and you hold a great hand, might as well go all in. The exception to this is when there is 4 to a flush on the board and you hold the A (no straight flush possibility). It's hard to get an all in call here but you can generally get a few bucks from someone with the K.