Hand quiz, v2.0

[F Paulsson]

Let's see how you handle this one. There's apparently no stopping the know-it-alls (and I should know - I'm the worst one), so post away how you feel - just remember to vote first!

Again, God Almighty turns up just as you're about to make a move. As a freak accident, the action up to you is identical as in the last hand quiz. The cards that your opponents hold are different, however. In your epiphany, you see this:


The first player to act raised with

(God knows why, but you forgot to ask him)

He was cold called by a player with


Then, a call came from


The player on the button 3-bet with


Small blinds folds.

And you look down to see that you're holding, in the big blind:


What do you do?

Edit: I happily copy/pasted the old poll answers, which are not entirely valid right now. Anyway, the options are still "fold", "call" or "raise", but you can happily dismiss the reasonings that the answers give and insert your own!

Edit2: There's a slight chance that Dorkus will fix up the poll answers for me, in which case these edits will be hopelessly useless. But there you go!

 

[twizzybop]

You would more than have to cap the bet here. Best starting pre-flop hand, you wouldn't need the god allmighty to show you anybody elses cards.

Be afraid to bet with best starting pre-flop hand would be nuts.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

The first player to act raised with

(God knows why, but you forgot to ask him)

Rep+ just for that, laffos.

Anyway, without pumping anything into an odds calc, this seems even more clear-cut than the last example. You have a much greater than 20% chance to win, probably ~30%, and are getting 4 to 1 on your money. Cap cap cap!

Edit: Pumped into pokerstove...

equity (%) win (%) tie (%)
Hand 1: 35.1324 % 35.12% 00.02% { AdAs }
Hand 2: 18.5670 % 18.55% 00.02% { 5c4c }
Hand 3: 13.2239 % 13.21% 00.02% { Ks7s }
Hand 4: 16.4991 % 16.48% 00.02% { Td9d }
Hand 5: 16.5776 % 16.56% 00.02% { QhJh }

 

[Freakakanus]

I know nothing of the math behind it, but if I have that many people in a pot and I have AA, I'm going to Raise and get as much money out there as possible before the flop. Then I will close my eyes and hope to hit another Ace on the flop. I think for me it is just get your money in with the best hand and hope for the best type of situations.

 

[Tammy]

Yeah, why wouldn't you push as much as possible here? Maybe your cap-bet will get Mr. 4/5s raiser out of the hand and the cold callers (but only God knows if that will happen ).

 

[F Paulsson]

It does seem obvious, doesn't it? Now ask yourself: Knowing full well that your equity in this particular hand is just about the same as in the previous hand quiz, do you feel that your decision was made easier just because you happened to have AA this time?

My point in all this, of course, is that you must not be hypnotized by AA anymore than you should fear JJ. Look at both cases rationally - and you will see that the decision in both of them is to chuck in a raise.

This was a "checkpoint" hand quiz. I was going to make one where AKs had a 33% equity as well, but I think you get the idea - you should raise in that situation as well.

 

[Freakakanus]

do you feel that your decision was made easier just because you happened to have AA this time?

Yes, that's why I need to learn the math aspect of poker. I hate that because I'm terrible at math. No matter how many times something is explained to me involving numbers it just seems to go in one ear (get mixed up in my brain) and then out the other ear. :withstupi I'm hoping that by reading your posts FP that by some miracle something just seeps in and sticks. Thanks for all your help, you definatley know your stuff!

 

[Tammy]

I totally agree with Freak. It's not that I'm bad at math, just that I start to regress to nightmares that was my pre-calculus days in high school. That, and the odds thing just goes in one ear and out the other, like Jesse said. You might as well go all Charlie Brown on me and say, "Wah, wah, wah, wah WAH WAH." Guess I need to concentrate on that aspect of the game too.

 

[F Paulsson]

In fairness, the math is just a tool to back my more practical points: You must raise when you have the best of it. And especially, not to let emotional responses to hands get in the way of how you should act. Pocket jacks is an awesome hand, and should be welcomed and raised preflop. It's true that you'll lose more often than you win with it, but profitable poker is not about winning the most pots: It's making sure that you walk away from the table with more money than you sat down with. To maximize your chance of doing this, you have to be willing to gamble with the best of it - and in both of these quizzes, you have had the best of it. Raise, raise, raise!

 

[Freakakanus]

You must raise when you have the best of it. And especially, not to let emotional responses to hands get in the way of how you should act.

This is the best way to explain it to someone like me. Very common sense type of stuff. It's nice to hear this type of advice from someone that IS STRONG in math. Sorta like "stop second guessing yourself, if you got the hand PLAY IT!"

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

If this is the case (of which i agree), can you tell me why these players did or said they would do in this case. In the thread, "What would you have done?" you will see, to me, what I consider crazy play.
You can see by my comment what i thought.

I can't seem to link this here.

 

[joosebuck]

I would raise hard, but it wouldn't be hard to get away from them if the flop put anyone on a flush..

 

[t1riel]

I think a big raise here is required here. Granted, you have the best hand. So, protect it. If you raise it to a big amount, I'd say at least two players will fold. Therefore, it increase your odds of winning. You can't just call on Pocket Aces. You have the best starting hand in poker, bet hard!

 

[j1a1m1]

this is a limit game, then obviously at least call, but raise is good, if it was no limit I'm all in

 

[beardyian]

I wont go on and "do the science bit" to quote a certain hair advert
but everything you hear is right - first get your positional play right, then you
can get the maths bit sorted.

Its not as daunting as it seems, start small with 'is it worth a call' or 'how much can i bet before it becomes too expensive?'

Since reading up on this my game has florished this step then leads to playing people and not the cards.

Every little step helps, dont fear the numbers for they will help you win

IanT

 

[beardyian]

Oops

As to the question (doh!) i would raise

1. As is often heard - play the premium hands strongly
2. Also not only would a big raise should get rid of any junk cards left - but if they are decent enough players they would also know that more than 2 strong raises preflop, 1 is very often with AA.*

*This fact was raised by Mr Brunson and has already helped me in games.

IanT