c9h13no3
Is drawing with AK
Silver Level
I'm bored again, and I figured I'd write a little bit about flop play in NLHE, since most people seem to focus a bit too much on preflop play.
I've seen a lot of people mention "floating" flops, or calling a continuation bet with the intention of stealing the pot later in the hand. And most people I've seen do this wrong. So, first lets consider the factors we need to make floating a profitable play:
1) We have a tight opponent who raises most hands he plays preflop & plays ABC poker. We do not float bad players. Bad players continuation bet less, and have a much harder time folding marginal hands. So when you're choosing which players to bluff, pick tight ones, who often raise preflop. Also, we'd prefer an opponent who will not be double/triple barrel bluffing us without a good hand.
2) The flop texture is unlikely to hit our opponent's range. If our opponent raises preflop, we call in position, and the flop comes out:
This is not a good flop to float your opponent! I generally prefer to have the flop be queen high or lower when I float an opponent.
3) Position. Floating players works much better when you are in position. The ability to control the potsize & act last is very important when making plays against good opponents.
4) We have a hand with some equity in the pot. While bluffing is good, semi-bluffing is much better, since our bluff doesn't have to work nearly as often. Additionally, bluffing with some outs allows us to win a big pot when we hit our outs.
5) Our opponent has at least a 100bb stack. Bluffing pot committed opponents is a losing play in the long run!
Aight, so now that we know who we're going to make this move against, lets look at some scenarios, and the types of hands that we're looking to have when we're floating our opponents. Take this hand for example:
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$0.1-$0.25 No Limit, 6max
Hero has $25 on the button with a good table image
Villain has $25 and is in middle position, and is a decent player who we have this read on: Cannot fold top pair, plays straightforwardly. Stats: 26/15/2
Hero is dealt
Villain raises to $0.85. Hero calls $0.85, blinds fold.
Potsize = $2.05
Flop:
Villain bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35.
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This is a situation where many players would give up too easily. They think "gee, I have bottom pair, this hand isn't that strong, I should fold".
However, they're simply just playing their cards, and not playing the situation. All the factors are here for us to float this player. He's as a fairly tight raising range, if he didn't flop anything he's going to fold to us on later streets. If he has a legitimate hand, he's going to pay us off big if we make a big hand on later streets.
Additionally, 15% of hands (what he's raising preflop) is a range of { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }, which our hand fares well against:
{ Hand Range } - Equity
{ 8s4s } - 49%
{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } - 51%
So while our hand may just have bottom pair, our hand has a lot of "hidden equity" in this pot, for the following reasons:
1) Bottom pair allows us to make trips or two pair, giving us 5 outs.
2) We have several back door draws we can hit on the turn. Any spade gives us a flush draw, any Jack or 7 gives us an open ended straight draw. And any 6 or Q will give us a gut-shot straight draw. These draws, since they are back door draws, are well disguised, and will be hard to see coming.
3) Our pair of 4's may well be the best hand, since hands like AQ, AK will have missed the flop completely.
So for example, against pocket queens, our hand has a 25% chance to win by the river. Against AT, we have a 27% chance of winning. And against AK, we are a 77% favorite.
We call here on the flop to bet any turn when checked to, or call a bet with any card that gives us 8 more outs, or a hand of 2 pair or better.
Lets check another situation, where our hand likely has a lot more equity than people think.
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$0.1-$0.25 No Limit, 6max
Hero has $35 on the button with a good table image
Villain has $30 and is in middle position, and is a TAGGY player who we have this read on: Doesn't two-barrel bluff overcards on turn. Stats: 18/15/2
Hero is dealt
Villain raises to $0.85. Hero calls $0.85, blinds fold.
Potsize = $2.05
Flop:
Villain bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35.
-----------------------------------------------------
Once again, our hand has a lot of hidden equity to it. We again have the backdoor flush draw, and this time, we have a gutshot straight draw and two overcards. So against villain's range, here's how we do:
{ Hand Range } - Equity
{ QdJd } - 40%
{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } - 60%
This situation isn't quite as favorable, since our outs to over-cards are dirty. Hitting a Q or J on the turn will not allow us to play a big pot, and we will be crushed by hands like AQ.
However, the gutshot & runner flush draws allow us to have a large amount of equity, even against strong holdings. We are 22% to win against pocket aces, and 17% to win against a set of tens! And while that isn't a lot of equity, it is enough that when combined with bluffing out other hands that are showing weakness, this can be a profitable play in the long run.
I've seen a lot of people mention "floating" flops, or calling a continuation bet with the intention of stealing the pot later in the hand. And most people I've seen do this wrong. So, first lets consider the factors we need to make floating a profitable play:
1) We have a tight opponent who raises most hands he plays preflop & plays ABC poker. We do not float bad players. Bad players continuation bet less, and have a much harder time folding marginal hands. So when you're choosing which players to bluff, pick tight ones, who often raise preflop. Also, we'd prefer an opponent who will not be double/triple barrel bluffing us without a good hand.
2) The flop texture is unlikely to hit our opponent's range. If our opponent raises preflop, we call in position, and the flop comes out:
This is not a good flop to float your opponent! I generally prefer to have the flop be queen high or lower when I float an opponent.3) Position. Floating players works much better when you are in position. The ability to control the potsize & act last is very important when making plays against good opponents.
4) We have a hand with some equity in the pot. While bluffing is good, semi-bluffing is much better, since our bluff doesn't have to work nearly as often. Additionally, bluffing with some outs allows us to win a big pot when we hit our outs.
5) Our opponent has at least a 100bb stack. Bluffing pot committed opponents is a losing play in the long run!
Aight, so now that we know who we're going to make this move against, lets look at some scenarios, and the types of hands that we're looking to have when we're floating our opponents. Take this hand for example:
-----------------------------------------------------
$0.1-$0.25 No Limit, 6max
Hero has $25 on the button with a good table image
Villain has $25 and is in middle position, and is a decent player who we have this read on: Cannot fold top pair, plays straightforwardly. Stats: 26/15/2
Hero is dealt
Villain raises to $0.85. Hero calls $0.85, blinds fold.
Potsize = $2.05
Flop:
Villain bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35.
-----------------------------------------------------
This is a situation where many players would give up too easily. They think "gee, I have bottom pair, this hand isn't that strong, I should fold".
However, they're simply just playing their cards, and not playing the situation. All the factors are here for us to float this player. He's as a fairly tight raising range, if he didn't flop anything he's going to fold to us on later streets. If he has a legitimate hand, he's going to pay us off big if we make a big hand on later streets.
Additionally, 15% of hands (what he's raising preflop) is a range of { 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo }, which our hand fares well against:
{ Hand Range } - Equity
{ 8s4s } - 49%
{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } - 51%
So while our hand may just have bottom pair, our hand has a lot of "hidden equity" in this pot, for the following reasons:
1) Bottom pair allows us to make trips or two pair, giving us 5 outs.
2) We have several back door draws we can hit on the turn. Any spade gives us a flush draw, any Jack or 7 gives us an open ended straight draw. And any 6 or Q will give us a gut-shot straight draw. These draws, since they are back door draws, are well disguised, and will be hard to see coming.
3) Our pair of 4's may well be the best hand, since hands like AQ, AK will have missed the flop completely.
So for example, against pocket queens, our hand has a 25% chance to win by the river. Against AT, we have a 27% chance of winning. And against AK, we are a 77% favorite.
We call here on the flop to bet any turn when checked to, or call a bet with any card that gives us 8 more outs, or a hand of 2 pair or better.
Lets check another situation, where our hand likely has a lot more equity than people think.
-----------------------------------------------------
$0.1-$0.25 No Limit, 6max
Hero has $35 on the button with a good table image
Villain has $30 and is in middle position, and is a TAGGY player who we have this read on: Doesn't two-barrel bluff overcards on turn. Stats: 18/15/2
Hero is dealt
Villain raises to $0.85. Hero calls $0.85, blinds fold.
Potsize = $2.05
Flop:
Villain bets $1.35, Hero calls $1.35.
-----------------------------------------------------
Once again, our hand has a lot of hidden equity to it. We again have the backdoor flush draw, and this time, we have a gutshot straight draw and two overcards. So against villain's range, here's how we do:
{ Hand Range } - Equity
{ QdJd } - 40%
{ 77+, A7s+, K9s+, Q9s+, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QJo } - 60%
This situation isn't quite as favorable, since our outs to over-cards are dirty. Hitting a Q or J on the turn will not allow us to play a big pot, and we will be crushed by hands like AQ.
However, the gutshot & runner flush draws allow us to have a large amount of equity, even against strong holdings. We are 22% to win against pocket aces, and 17% to win against a set of tens! And while that isn't a lot of equity, it is enough that when combined with bluffing out other hands that are showing weakness, this can be a profitable play in the long run.
