Faking a Flush Draw

vanquish

vanquish

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I played a whole bunch of SNGs and found this to be a working strategy for extracting much more value when in position.
You are 6 handed. (stacks are deep enough - let's pretend blinds are 10/20, you have 2500 and villain has 2400 - purely for the sake of argument)
You are dealt 8d8h on the button.
UTG+1 (villain) raises 3x BB.
You call.
Flop hits: 2c4c8s
Villain bets 1/2 pot.
You call instantly.
Turn hits: Jd
Villain bets pot.
You raise him all-in.
If he is on a flush draw, his semi-bluff failed (he would have hit on turn only <25% of the time, and now has no odds to chase his flush.
If he has overpair, you probably take all his chips.
If he has something like TPTK, you extracted an entire pot-sized bet from him on the turn, with him trying not to give you odds to chase your flush.

When to use this play:
You have to make sure villain's flop bet is not a utility underbet (he's not trying to give himself odds to chase a flush), and that your hand is powerful enough to not let him improve vastly on the turn (ex: you have a set, and you put him on TPTK or something of the sort). If turn is a complete blank, and villain makes a small enough bet, consider insta-calling again to support his read that you are on a flush draw and extract more on river.

Thoughts? I think this is not obvious enough not to warrant a discussion, please do not respond with "obvz that's what you do, duh."
 
jaymfc

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obvz thats what you do,duh. oh sry . maybe i missed something but it does seem the obv play except i make a large bet instead of the all in .pot is to small to sloplay another card and then have him just fold.
 
dj11

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Got to thinking, that on the river the odds of him filling his flush are just about the same as the board pairing giving you the boat. It might get tricky as to what 'almost' means, but it is close. This being the case there is almost never a time to back down with trips against the flush draw.

The idea of trying to make him think you are on the flush draw rather than a str8, or 2 pr or these trips seems as much like a standard value approach to a hand as any trickery. For it to be trickery, if he gave you an opportunity to check, you would have to check, hoping he saw that move as weakness and when the flush doesn't come on the river he bluffs at it, and you then come over the top.
 
joosebuck

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fyi: his odds are about 20% for his flush on the flop since 1/3 of his 35~% are negated by your filling a boat 1/3 of those times.
 
S

shallow33

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Got to thinking, that on the river the odds of him filling his flush are just about the same as the board pairing giving you the boat. It might get tricky as to what 'almost' means, but it is close. This being the case there is almost never a time to back down with trips against the flush draw.

The idea of trying to make him think you are on the flush draw rather than a str8, or 2 pr or these trips seems as much like a standard value approach to a hand as any trickery. For it to be trickery, if he gave you an opportunity to check, you would have to check, hoping he saw that move as weakness and when the flush doesn't come on the river he bluffs at it, and you then come over the top.

7 cards can come for you to beat a flush (6 for a full house, 1 for a four of a kind).
9 can make his flush but only 6 of those wont give you a better hand.

so technically, you have the best hand and the best draw. i guess you could check since 1/3 of the time he hits his flush you'll hit your full house/4-of-a-kind so you theres a 99% chance to felt him. personally, i have a really hard time folding trips even with 3 suits on the board, so i just bet out making sure that doesnt happen.

also keep in mind weird straight draws are possible, in the above example a hand like 5-6 gives a double gut-shot straight draw with 8 clean outs to beat you. you can usually assume these hands will fold to pre-flop bet or even on the flop, but i've seen weirder things... i like to gamble as little as possible with big hands (unless its the absolute nuts) winning medium sized pots rather than gambling on winning or losing big.

edit: just realized something interesting, if you dont hit your full house of four of a kind on the turn, you get 3 more outs. chance to pair on turn is then ~13%, on river ~19%
 
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dj11

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Early in my posting career here, I mentioned that as we all progress, we run across that one nugget of info here and there that brings something together.

The flush or flush draw on the board always freaks me out. Until this thread, I had never really worked out how close trips was to that flush draw. I would usually temper my bets fearing the flush filling. The OP here clarified the notion, and I have a new found respect for trips, which had seemed to suffer badly at the hands of the flushes. From either side of the equation, trips versus the flush draw or flush on board happens often enough that a good understanding of the odds is more important than in many hands. You can always know with the flush it is good if there is no pair showing. With trips or the hidden set, you can't be as sure the xxx will hold against the flush on the board.

So assume for a second that the odds, being as close as they are, assume they are exactly even. What then?

The flush on the board does offer more bluff opportunities than holding trips might. However, one can hold trips, and still execute the flush bluff. Only and A hi flush should come back at you. Any pair on the board should be able to bluff off a flush, even a made flush. But we know that seldom happens, whereas the flush bluff often takes down the pot.

I think it is because it is easier to quickly see the flush, where as the pair on the board is not defined. From the flushes POV, it could be 2 pair, or trips, or the boat. The flush beats 2 of those 3. So right off he sees he has 67% odds in his favor. He is betting at that pot.

The set on the other hand, sees the flush board, and at whatever street it is, that flush can beat his trips. He should probably proceed cautiously.

Bottom line here is that as OP has it set up, the flush is the more playable bluff. Holding the set is a damned if you do, and damned if you don't thing. The set is gold till that 3rd flush card hits. So, It is better to bluff the flush, while holding the set, than visa versa.

Sorry Van, I had to work that out in my head before what you were really getting at made any sense to me.
 
NineLions

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edit: just realized something interesting, if you dont hit your full house of four of a kind on the turn, you get 3 more outs. chance to pair on turn is then ~13%, on river ~19%


Yep, one of those interesting things that I never realized until someone slowplayed/check-called my set when they flopped a flush, and then got stacked because I hit the full house on the river.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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Yep, one of those interesting things that I never realized until someone slowplayed/check-called my set when they flopped a flush, and then got stacked because I hit the full house on the river.

If there's one thing I learned after starting to actually read books about poker, it's that slowplaying a flush is a stupid idea. If another card of that suit hits the turn, your action is dead, and the other person can easily improve to beat you while you can't.
 
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shark vs fish

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You obviously need to read more, as your all-in turn raise is wrong lol.

2 cards of the same suit, with villain showing no initiative by the turn, isn't even a flush draw for him most likely. If you can't see that then.... ;-) He hasn't tried at all to get more of your chips into the pot, so either he's on a flush draw and being very stupid, or he's not on such a draw. And you going all-in forcing him to fold, is like you saying to him that YOU have a flush draw plus top pair or something... "join me if you can and I will bust you".

So he folds most most of the time to your all-in turn bet, unless he is a loose donkey. OR.............. he holds JJ and busts you. Your bet makes no sense whatsoever.
 
vanquish

vanquish

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You obviously need to read more, as your all-in turn raise is wrong lol.

2 cards of the same suit, with villain showing no initiative by the turn, isn't even a flush draw for him most likely. If you can't see that then.... ;-) He hasn't tried at all to get more of your chips into the pot, so either he's on a flush draw and being very stupid, or he's not on such a draw. And you going all-in forcing him to fold, is like you saying to him that YOU have a flush draw plus top pair or something... "join me if you can and I will bust you".

So he folds most most of the time to your all-in turn bet, unless he is a loose donkey. OR.............. he holds JJ and busts you. Your bet makes no sense whatsoever.

What are you talking about? Villain bets 1/2 pot on flop and bets pot on turn. How is he showing no initiative and how is he not trying to get more of your chips into the pot?

I don't see why the bet makes "no sense whatsoever" seeing as how you would either be pushing him off a semi-bluff or getting a call from a hand that you are in great shape against (overpair, smaller set, anything other than the one hand that beats you). I suppose I should have written that you would raise to 3x villain's bet instead of shove since the stacks are so deep. Let's pretend I wrote that you raise 3x villain's bet on turn, am I right now? Or should I go read all the books and come back and ask for forgiveness?
 
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drizzt

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His betting after the flop and turn suggest that he doesn't put you on anything more than a flush draw at best. He figures his raise was sufficient enough to eliminate the possibility of 2 pair on that flop, and the possibility that you called with pocket 2's or 4's is very low. It might have crossed his mind that if you had pocket 8's or higher, you'd have reraised pre-flop. However, your all in on the turn probably tells him you either had pocket jacks and hit the trips, had pocket 8's all along and slow played him, or you're just hyper aggressive. I might do a smaller reraise, one that looks suspicious, like im trying to bluff with a reraise. This might prompt him to go all in in a bigger bluff, or figures he has you hooked and he's either got more bets out of you with your attempt at a big bluff or because you overplayed the non-nut hand. And If he's already set that he wont go all in with his semi-bluff or top pair, a small reraise has a better chance at getting you a bit more money before the river and possibly a bit more at the river as well, compared to no more betting after he folds to your all in. He'll either think you're bluffing/semi-bluffing with the reraise, or that you know your hand isn't the nuts, but are assuming that he doesn't have anything either, so the small reraise covers your ass incase you happen to be wrong.

hope this made sense and is somewhat correct! Im trying to really get better at reading situations and opponents
 
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