EV query

tenbob

tenbob

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A gambler approaches you, this gambler is a student of the horses. He studies the form, he watches the races but he bets every race.

This gambles give you a tip, at what stage does his tip become +EV, he gives you a tip on a certain inerval.

1--> every race
2--> Daily
3--> Monthly
4--> yearly

At which stage does his tip become a +EV decision, if you never take the tip please explain why, if you do decide to take it, make considerations that this gambler just pays the juice, and what % of you BR do you gamble ?

The tip was 10/1 for a win, some inside "information", which is usualy crap, and to back each way, which was paying 1/4 of the odds _ your stake back for a top 3 place. 14 runners, if that means anything.

I dont bet on horses, but poker players are inherant gamblesrs.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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*TB forgot to mention that the tip is -EV.*

This is still wooshing over my head, tb.

OK to put it in perspective (since I know nothing about horse racing and it's confusing me a little), let's give a poker example:

You get a chance to run AA against a random hand. You're a ~4.5:1 favourite most of the time.; it's obv +EV. What difference does it make whether you're offered that bet once a day or once a year? The EV of the bet is still the same, no?

I'm gettin tired and not even sure if my post made sense there
 
Schatzdog

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I think you need more info in order to assess the EV of this proposition. You need to know this guys track record over time in order to assess his edge. Once you know (average) the probabilities of his edge you can determine an EV over time.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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I think you need more info in order to assess the EV of this proposition. You need to know this guys track record over time in order to assess his edge. Once you know (average) the probabilities of his edge you can determine an EV over time.


HE just pays the juice, ie hes a total break even gambler apart from the bookmakers take .
 
Schatzdog

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Are you taking a one off tip or are you going to be doing this repeatedly?

I trade a bit, but on each trade I take I can't tell you if I'll win or lose. But based on the fact that my winners are bigger than my losers and that I trade at x% winners, I can give you my EV over time. Would you take a tip from me about a market?

I risk between 1.5 and 2% of equity on each trade I take. However some pro's trade at 5% and others at 0.5% so this is a personal thing.

I wouldn't take a tip from a break-even trader.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

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I really don't understand the question.

If his tips are -EV (+EV) they're -EV (+EV), no matter how frequently or infrequently we take them. Obviously if they're -EV we should look to take them as little as possible, if they're +EV we should look to take them as often as possible, not because it changes the EV of the bet, but because obviously taking 10 bets with an EV of $10 is better than taking 1 bet with an EV of $10.

Unless this is some kind of weird horse-racing question whereby it would obviously be -EV to take tips on every race because there's no way the tipster could be 'accurate' on every single race, whereas one pick a year would result in a more selective and therefore 'better' tip.

I've probably just completely misunderstood the question, though.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Unless this is some kind of weird horse-racing question whereby it would obviously be -EV to take tips on every race because there's no way the tipster could be 'accurate' on every single race, whereas one pick a year would result in a more selective and therefore 'better' tip.

^^^^^^^ This.
 
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