Equity question

38special

38special

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Oct 24, 2007
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Pulled from the strategy article on equity..
"So here we find a proper place to raise because we have high equity even with a non-made hand. A more common situation is when we have the nut flush draw on the flop (although it doesn't have to be as extreme as it was here where we also had straight and overcard outs). Our flush will arrive somewhere around 35% of the time before or on the river, which means that unless the board if paired, we have 35% equity in this pot. With two or more opponents, raising this flop is correct! We expect to win 35% of every bet that goes in, and if we put in less than one third of the bets (which we would be with two opponents), then we're winning money in the long run. This is a very common tactic among intermediate players (sometimes even over- and incorrectly used), and understanding why it's a winning play means understanding equity."

im not debating this play is correct but what do you do on the turn, i mean we are 35% to hit with two cards to come but is this theory negating the fact that we may face action on the turn and never even make it that far? what is our turn play in multiple scenarios? for some reason this doesnt click for me. anyone got a good explanation?
 
Cheetah

Cheetah

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Good Question.

As usual, the answer is: It depends.

If you have a draw that is more than 50% favorite against one single opponent, then you should usually push it in cash games to the extend you can, hopefully all-in so you can derive the maximum benefit.

If you are short or medium staked in a turney, you should do the same unless you are near a bubble.

If you are in any other situation, then you must consider the implied odds to get paid off. For example, say you flop the draw, you are OOP, and you have 25 BBs stack.

Then, you DO have to worry what happens on the turn.

It is likely that what you have read refers to all-in play.

Good poker is rarely all-in. It is all-in only by necessity:)
 
F Paulsson

F Paulsson

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im not debating this play is correct but what do you do on the turn, i mean we are 35% to hit with two cards to come but is this theory negating the fact that we may face action on the turn and never even make it that far? what is our turn play in multiple scenarios? for some reason this doesnt click for me. anyone got a good explanation?
Hi,

How to play the turn depends on how the flop action continues and what card comes off on the turn. If you hit your flush, you of course want to continue jamming the pot. If you miss, you may decide if it's best to try to get to the river cheaply, or if you may be able to induce a fold by betting or raising.

The article isn't really about how to play a flushdraw; it just happened to be a convenient example. If you're wondering about any specific situations, go ahead and post them in the Hand Analysis forums. :)

/FP
 
38special

38special

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alright, makes more sense to look at it as an all-in situation. i was just trying to figure out what you were gonna do on the turn when, invariably, you wont get proper odds. thanks
 
J

jeffred1111

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Apr 16, 2007
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Equity dictates raising because, with a flush draw on an unpaired board, even people who have hit are, usually, at 1/3 to win it. So, in theory, if you knew the board would never pair and that some of your cards were good if they paired, pushing on the flop and getting called by 2 opponents would be profitable 100% of the time, even if they had made hands.

For example:
You have AKh

Opponents have
88
JT
KQ

Board comes out Qh6h7x

Your equity here is higher than 35% since your A is a good out, along with your flush draw.

Another reason to raise, some of the time, is on a semi-bluff: that is a bluff with reasonable odds. In this case, we have 9 outs plus 3 Ace outs giving us 12 outs (15, since we don't know that our K is not a good out). Driving people out means that your equity raises (since you cannot get outdrawn by them), but even if they do call, you are actually equally happy, since they get more money in the pot.

Turn play also depends on many factors, you might want to semi-bluff a blank or get to the river cheaply has FPaulsson said, depending on position, table image, villain's experience, tendancies and skills, etc.

Also, tournament play differs widely from cash play here and shortstack cash differs also a lot from deepstack.
 
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