Don't be predictable or it can hurt you

titans4ever

titans4ever

Legend
Joined
Apr 20, 2005
Total posts
1,238
A lesson on why you should not become to predictable. I got her to do what I wanted, when I wanted.

Playing heads up in a SnG and I notice a pattern and used it to win. She was folding everytime to my 3xBB raises so I wondered what would happen if I just did 2xBB. Would that allow me to apply pressure for less? I min raised a couple times and opponent went all-in. I stored that nugget for later in the game. I did not do it again until I wanted her to do it and BINGO.


*********** # 56 **************
PokerStars Game #10366237705: Tournament #52522293, $6.00+$0.60 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/06/10 - 12:57:17 (ET)
Table '52522293 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: titans4ever (7310 in chips)
Seat 6: jennyfermabe (1690 in chips)
titans4ever: posts small blind 50
jennyfermabe: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to titans4ever [Qd 6d]
titans4ever: raises 100 to 200
jennyfermabe: raises 1490 to 1690 and is all-in
titans4ever: folds
jennyfermabe collected 400 from pot
jennyfermabe: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Seat 2: titans4ever (button) (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: jennyfermabe (big blind) collected (400)

*********** # 62 **************
PokerStars Game #10366261939: Tournament #52522293, $6.00+$0.60 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/06/10 - 12:59:02 (ET)
Table '52522293 1' 6-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 2: titans4ever (6760 in chips)
Seat 6: jennyfermabe (2240 in chips)
titans4ever: posts small blind 50
jennyfermabe: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to titans4ever [9s Qc]
titans4ever: raises 100 to 200
jennyfermabe: raises 2040 to 2240 and is all-in
titans4ever: folds
jennyfermabe collected 400 from pot
jennyfermabe: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 400 | Rake 0
Seat 2: titans4ever (button) (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: jennyfermabe (big blind) collected (400)


*********** # 71 **************
PokerStars Game #10366302861: Tournament #52522293, $6.00+$0.60 Hold'em No Limit - Level IV (50/100) - 2007/06/10 - 13:02:03 (ET)
Table '52522293 1' 6-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: titans4ever (6810 in chips)
Seat 6: jennyfermabe (2190 in chips)
jennyfermabe: posts small blind 50
titans4ever: posts big blind 100
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to titans4ever [Ah Qd]
jennyfermabe: calls 50
titans4ever: raises 100 to 200:rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes: :rolleyes:
jennyfermabe: raises 1990 to 2190 and is all-in :D :D :D :D :D
titans4ever: calls 1990
*** FLOP *** [7d 7c Td]
*** TURN *** [7d 7c Td] 8♦
*** RIVER *** [7d 7c Td 8d] 9♦
*** SHOW DOWN ***
titans4ever: shows [Ah Qd] (a flush, Queen high)
jennyfermabe: shows [Kc Qs] (a pair of Sevens)
titans4ever collected 4380 from pot;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;) ;)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 4380 | Rake 0
Board [7d 7c Td 8d 9d]
Seat 2: titans4ever (big blind) showed [Ah Qd] and won (4380) with a flush, Queen high
Seat 6: jennyfermabe (button) (small blind) showed [Kc Qs] and lost with a pair of Sevens
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
HU is all about these little reads that turn out to be huge.

The average player is so predictable, and playing with him/her every hand means that your reads come into play, well, every hand. Getting a solid read HU can give you a huge edge.
 
Jack Daniels

Jack Daniels

Charcoal Mellowed
Joined
Mar 26, 2005
Total posts
13,414
What Chuck said. Very nice read Titan. And this is exactly why I laugh when people say you can't get a read on someone online or there are no tells. There ARE tells, but they are different. Betting patterns are on example of an online tell and something you were able to exploit here. Great job.
 
S

S.Anthony

Guest
Joined
Jun 17, 2007
Total posts
18
Hey, thanks for giving this example..I have a problem with heads-up.
 
A

AcesorKings

Guest
Joined
Jun 19, 2007
Total posts
13
Hmm, well, it´s not like you know you have a gigantic lead over her hand range... I mean, this time you are lucky to dominate her, but would you post this thread if she had turned over AK?

Let´s say she pushes with aces through eights, ace-ten suited or better, king-queen suited or not, and ace-jack off or better. With AQo, you are a slight underdog against this handrange.

And for all you know, maybe she only pushes with big pairs? Then you´re in real bad shape.

Or was it a recurring theme, you minraising and her going all in several times? Then it´s not just predictable play, it´s really bad play and there should be little problem taking her money.
 
A

alan1983

Visionary
Joined
Dec 13, 2006
Total posts
641
Dyou think it was the minraise that induced the allin?

Im thinking with her being more than 3-1 behind in chips, KQ is going allin pretty often
 
titans4ever

titans4ever

Legend
Joined
Apr 20, 2005
Total posts
1,238
Hmm, well, it´s not like you know you have a gigantic lead over her hand range what is the hand range for the short stack with 15 BB left?... I mean, this time you are lucky to dominate her, but would you post this thread if she had turned over AK? With the chip counts the way they are this is a no brainer. Ace anything is good heads up, Ace face is makes this super easy to call. Folding a top 10 hand heads up is playing really tight. More detail about the call below.

Let´s say she pushes with aces through eights, ace-ten suited or better, king-queen suited or not, and ace-jack off or better. With AQo, you are a slight underdog against this handrange. If I was unlucky enough to find her range 3 times in 15 hands only when I mini raised then I am the most unlucky poker player there is.

And for all you know, maybe she only pushes with big pairs? Then you´re in real bad shape. Do you really think I walked into large pocket pairs 3 times in 15 hands? She only went all-in 2 other times since we have been heads up.

Or was it a recurring theme, you minraising and her going all in several times? Then it´s not just predictable play, it´s really bad play and there should be little problem taking her money. Did you look at all 3 hands?How many times do you need to have it happen to make it a pattern? I think 3 is enough in poker.

As far as the calling the push:
I have her about 4 to 1 in chips and know I can get her to push when I want her to if I raise 2 BB. You really think that all 3 times I just mini riased I walked into her monster hands that she wanted to push with or does it look like weakness on my part? I think she will open her hand range to push when I mini riase a third time.

How many hands am i afraid of here heads up?
AA has me crushed but what are the odds?
AK has me drawing the 3 Q so I am around 30% chance to win.
KK I still have the A so I am around 30% to win the hand.
QQ same except he is drawing to only one Q to get the set.
JJ - 22 is a coin flip for the win.
Everything else I am ahead.

What I am hoping they will push with since I am chip leader.
Ax anything smaller than a Q and I win around 70% of the time.
Qx smaller than a J and I win 70% of the time.
two under cards (pushing like I hope) 65%ish to win.
Kx I am 60/40 to win.
JJ-22 is the coin flip.
 
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