Considering outs for an all in call

[Gorblimey]

$1-$2 NLH again. 100 BBs effective. Full ring game. UTG raises 4 BBs and button H calls with KQs. Flop is K,9,7 and two hearts. V shoves all in. I'm certain I made the right move by calling because if V has AA I have 14 outs; nine hearts, two Kings and three Queenies. None of the outs materialized on the streets but only twelve are needed to make the call mathematically profitable, I believe.

 

[dreamer13]

The more outs your draw has, the stronger it is. Remember that you can only count as outs cards that are really likely to improve your draw to the best hand. The highest probability in poker of the successful completion of all-in tactics occurs if 2 people participate in the game. With an increase in the number of participants, the chances of winning proportionally decrease, since in such a situation it is difficult to rationally assess the risks, calculate the scheme of actions of your opponents.

 

[Gorblimey]

The more outs your draw has, the stronger it is. Remember that you can only count as outs cards that are really likely to improve your draw to the best hand. The highest probability in poker of the successful completion of all-in tactics occurs if 2 people participate in the game. With an increase in the number of participants, the chances of winning proportionally decrease, since in such a situation it is difficult to rationally assess the risks, calculate the scheme of actions of your opponents.

I just want to know that my all in call was correct against a single opponent with AA. Can anyone demonstrate why it was or wasn't mathematically the correct play?

 

[Claudiunm]

Okay, let's get to the numbers:
The deck has 52 cards. Minus the 2 that are in your hand 50. Now considering that you have 14 outs, if villain really has AA, you are getting into a hole because you have 14 outs against your opponent's 36.
Looking at it coldly, you should consider two more things:
1- The villain may not have AA.
2- What is the health of your stack to call this all-in.

Poker is about taking risks. But how much CONTROL you have over that risk makes the difference.

 

[Gorblimey]

I think I get your point and that the call was a double blunder. The pot odds were negative.

 

[fundiver199]

There is free software, that can calculate equity for both hands and ranges. Like Equilab from Pokerstrategy.com. Against AA with random suits your hand had 48% equity, so you were making a close to breakeven call. To be honest this is not a situation, I would spend to much time analysing, because its incredibly rare, that someone just open ship the flop for 100BB effective in a pot, that must have been around 9-10BB. Personally I am also calling here, because we are never that far behind with top pair and the nut flushdraw, unless he specifically flopped a set, and I dont see people doing this with a set very often.

 

[Gorblimey]

After the hand I was thinking first that I had it right to call then I second guessed the situation making me think I'd blundered. I have Poker Pro Tools and in the Equity histogram it shows 50.70.71% for KQs and 49.29.29% for AA given the flop. I'm happy you agree with my play. So with two cards to come I can see it was not too far off a coin toss.

 

[MattRyder]

I routinely call shoves on the flop with an OESD/flush draw combo (up to 17 outs) and routinely lose.

 

[Gorblimey]

I routinely call shoves on the flop with an OESD/flush draw combo (up to 17 outs) and routinely lose.

Sounds like you've been on the left side of the bell curve. I've been there myself only in a different game.

 

[rastapapolos]

You have to calculate the pot odds and your equity before calling. So the pot on the flop is (4+4+0.5+1)
9.5 BB. V shoves 96 bb (100bb effective stack). You are getting (96+9.5)/96 = 1.09:1 to call, which is 47%. Now your equity is:
vs AA : 48% so you'are making a slight profit on the long term
vs AK : 45.8% you're loosing money on the long term
vs SET (KK, 99, 77): around 30% not profitable at all
Now with the Ace of heart in his range your equity will drop by 3-4%. After doing these simple calculations and considering his holding it's a clear fold in this spot.

 

[Gorblimey]

That's only true if you know for certainty V holds AA. Pocket Queens would also be in his range and you also can't know V holds Ah either.

 

[JhonnyThe357]

Optimal tips. Obrigado