A Thread

[pocketehs]

Jake I don't think we really need to call 55%? Where exactly are you getting that number from?

Edit: 55% of what range exactly? I'm not sure I know what range we have on the river here.

did u figure how i got it yet? we could fold 45% of our range and defend by raising/calling 55%

 

[pocketehs]

AT - you normally raise / fold AT there? what are you raising the flop to get value from? i probs fold river
JJ - just GII OTT.
99 - looks good

 

[micromachine]

AT - you have to call the river I'd expect to see busted FDs and weaker Tx hands there often enough

JJ - agree with Jake that GII on the turn is the best way to extract value here, calling then potting/shoving the river looks way stronger.

 

[ScottishMatt]

AT - you normally raise / fold AT there? what are you raising the flop to get value from? i probs fold river
JJ - just GII OTT.
99 - looks good

FD/Tx.

 

[ScottishMatt]

Best line to take?

PokerStars - $0.10 NL FAST (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (BTN): $18.00
SB: $13.16 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 13.04, 3Bet Preflop: 7.14, Hands: 23)
BB: $22.55 (VPIP: 29.03, PFR: 25.81, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 35)
UTG: $11.08 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 3)
MP: $14.74 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 8)
CO: $4.95 (VPIP: 7.14, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 28)

SB posts SB $0.05, BB posts BB $0.10

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.15) Hero has K:diamond: K:heart:

UTG raises to $0.30, MP raises to $0.90

 

[duggs]

4bet to 2.2

 

[vinylspiros]

Flat the 90 to bring UTG in and then try to milk them both if flop looks alright.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

did u figure how i got it yet? we could fold 45% of our range and defend by raising/calling 55%

Yes I understand where the number comes from: villain lays himself 1.58:1.31, so he "needs to win 45%" to be profitable. But I think trying to balance that heavily in a spot like this is kind of overkill, because that assumes we can even get to the river with a range that has 55% hands that can raise or call and win in some way against villain's whole range.

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Agree with duggs about 4b, but I might go like 2.3 or 2.4. It's an UTG raise and a MP 3b vs. an UTG open. Their ranges are going to be relatively strong, there's no reason to flat here and get into stupid spots postflop.

 

[Jblocher1]

Flat the 90 to bring UTG in and then try to milk them both if flop looks alright.

No. I think this is always a 4 bet, I want as much money in pre as possible

 

[ScottishMatt]

1. Definitely think he has a flush. Hate jamming cause I think he can find a fold this deep but not a big fan of slowplaying either. How do we get the max here?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BB: $5.07 (VPIP: 11.90, PFR: 7.14, 3Bet Preflop: 5.26, Hands: 42)
Hero (UTG): $9.48
MP: $2.28 (VPIP: 66.67, PFR: 46.67, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 15)
CO: $10.77 (VPIP: 39.02, PFR: 26.83, 3Bet Preflop: 10.53, Hands: 43)
BTN: $3.93 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 2)
SB: $4.21 (VPIP: 61.54, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 13)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 8:heart: A:heart:

Hero raises to $0.14, fold, CO calls $0.14, fold, fold, BB calls $0.09

Flop: ($0.44, 3 players) 6:heart: 2:heart: K:heart:
BB checks, Hero bets $0.31, CO raises to $1.10

 

[duggs]

If he def has a flush we are stacking him

 

[ScottishMatt]

So 3Bet flop?

 

[vinylspiros]

shove, he might have a set.

 

[duggs]

yes 3bet flop imo

 

[ScottishMatt]

Spoilers for that last hand - I 3Bet to about 2.45 (IIRC), he then min-4Bet and folded to my shove.

Felt like I played pretty damn good this session, was totally focused.

1. So after he donked the flop I felt that he could spaz min-raise with a decent percentage of his donking range particularly given my betsizing + my GS would get me paid if he really did have anything super nutty as I'm sure you would all agree anyone donking flop and X/Min-raising turn probs can't fold their set when a gutshot comes in. We happy with this?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG: $5.07 (VPIP: 37.50, PFR: 37.50, 3Bet Preflop: -, Hands: 9)
Hero (CO): $5.16
BTN: $20.40 (VPIP: 31.58, PFR: 26.32, 3Bet Preflop: 13.33, Hands: 38)
SB: $10.64 (VPIP: 24.32, PFR: 13.51, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 38)
BB: $4.33 (VPIP: 29.41, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:heart: Q:spade:

fold, Hero raises to $0.15, fold, SB calls $0.13, fold

Flop: ($0.35, 2 players) K:club: 7:spade: A:diamond:
SB bets $0.22, Hero calls $0.22

Turn: ($0.79, 2 players) T:club:
SB checks, Hero bets $0.39, SB raises to $0.78, Hero calls $0.39

River: ($2.35, 2 players) 3:heart:
SB bets $2.25, fold


2. I really didn't feel like I could get much value by betting the flop. The only guy going to call lighter than an A is the guy IP but I don't think he is floating me with the SB in as well so I figured I could check flop and get a street of value on plenty of turns and some rivers. Obv not folding the flop when he bets but debated calling the turn, I eventually decided on it as he seemed reg-ish at the time and I suspect most people can auto fire two barrels when I take such a weak line. FWIW I was snap-folding to a triple or even a larger sized turn bet. Thoughts on this?

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

BTN: $6.07 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 4)
SB: $5.86 (VPIP: 15.15, PFR: 9.09, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
BB: $2.13 (VPIP: 29.73, PFR: 27.03, 3Bet Preflop: 8.33, Hands: 39)
Hero (UTG): $5.00
CO: $5.57 (VPIP: 20.51, PFR: 17.95, 3Bet Preflop: 18.75, Hands: 39)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has 8:club: A:club:

Hero raises to $0.15, fold, BTN calls $0.15, fold, BB calls $0.10

Flop: ($0.47, 3 players) 4:diamond: A:heart: 9:spade:
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets $0.30, fold, Hero calls $0.30

Turn: ($1.07, 2 players) 2:heart:
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.65, Hero calls $0.65

River: ($2.37, 2 players) 2:diamond:
Hero checks, BTN checks

 

[ScottishMatt]

PokerStars - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

Hero (CO): $6.20
BTN: $13.06 (VPIP: 40.63, PFR: 34.38, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
SB: $1.49 (VPIP: 30.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 20)
BB: $5.71 (VPIP: 21.88, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 33)
UTG: $4.20 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 18)
MP: $6.09 (VPIP: 25.00, PFR: 25.00, 3Bet Preflop: 14.29, Hands: 20)

SB posts SB $0.02, BB posts BB $0.05

Pre Flop: (pot: $0.07) Hero has A:heart: A:club:

UTG calls $0.05, fold, Hero raises to $0.22, BTN calls $0.22, fold, fold, fold

Flop: ($0.56, 2 players) 5:heart: 8:spade: 4:club:
Hero bets $0.36, BTN calls $0.36

Turn: ($1.28, 2 players) 4:spade:
Hero checks, BTN bets $0.90, Hero calls $0.90

River: ($3.08, 2 players) T:club:
Hero checks, BTN bets $2.20, Hero calls $2.20


?

 

[pocketehs]

AQ - i mean i guess the turn min x/r is the nuts. I think you can fold there but since we have a GS then call if fine. folding river is fine

A8 - Yeah theres probably not a ton of value cause the BTN is handcuffed by the BB to kinda play straight forward. Line looks fine tbh

AA - ya not folding. might take a bet, bet, x/c line though

 

[sunburnt2k11]

how come there is no results for some of the plays? i see that it was called down to the river and the hold card of hero but nothing of the opponents.

 

[ScottishMatt]

how come there is no results for some of the plays? i see that it was called down to the river and the hold card of hero but nothing of the opponents.

Cause the results are irrelevant?

Thanks for the analysis Jake. I thought about B/B/XC but I think he folds a lot of his floats to the double barrel and basically reckon that I get the turn + river out of him a higher % of the time with B/XC/XC than with B/B/XC.

Is it cool to call off here super short?

PokerStars - $1+$0.25+$0.10|300/600 Ante 50 NL - Holdem - 9 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

UTG+1: 2,850 (VPIP: 0.00, PFR: 0.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 3)
UTG+2: 6,843 (VPIP: 29.63, PFR: 2.00, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
MP: 10,263 (VPIP: 42.59, PFR: 3.77, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
Hero (MP+1): 2,867
CO: 6,228 (VPIP: 50.00, PFR: 12.50, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 8)
BTN: 12,513 (VPIP: 43.33, PFR: 3.45, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 30)
SB: 5,876 (VPIP: 51.85, PFR: 1.96, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)
BB: 6,890 (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 50.00, 3Bet Preflop: 50.00, Hands: 9)
UTG: 9,795 (VPIP: 16.67, PFR: 1.85, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 54)

9 players post ante of 50, SB posts SB 300, BB posts BB 600

Pre Flop: (pot: 1,350) Hero has T:spade: A:diamond:

fold, UTG+1 raises to 2,800 and is all-in, fold, MP calls 2,800, Hero raises to 2,817 and is all-in, fold, fold, fold, fold, MP calls 17

Flop: (9,784, 3 players) K:diamond: K:club: 2:diamond:

Turn: (9,784, 3 players) 6:spade:

River: (9,784, 3 players) 2:heart:

 

[pocketehs]

Cause the results are irrelevant?

Thanks for the analysis Jake. I thought about B/B/XC but I think he folds a lot of his floats to the double barrel and basically reckon that I get the turn + river out of him a higher % of the time with B/XC/XC than with B/B/XC.

Is it cool to call off here super short?

anytime man. would appreciate ur opinions on some hands in my thread as well

are you playing 10NL now?

 

[ScottishMatt]

anytime man. would appreciate ur opinions on some hands in my thread as well

are you playing 10NL now?

Just kind of playing what I feel like. Won't go above 10NL though cause I'll try and stick to BR management.

I can start posting in your thread but I feel like I probably can't have too much to say TBH.

Also, I need to start looking at the game from a mathematical perspective as well so does anyone have the link to that 2+2 thread that lists all the top strategy threads?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

AA hand. If the plan is to let him go aggro, then ofc we call river? Like that's the plan, right? Induce 2 streets of air-balls? Typically vs. someone shaping up to be this fishy, I bet 2 streets and then either bet/fold or x/call river depending on board. I just don't see a player like this folding any PP on the turn, or any 8x, or any pair+GS, really. So I think we miss value since he doesn't bet that entire range. Yes he might airball some, so it's prob close actually. But I tend to lean toward the betting line here.

 

[ScottishMatt]

I probs should have given a bit more info. He was shaping up to be more LAG than fish. His WTSD was at 22 but his aggro factor was at 64. I think his turn calling range is considerably narrower than his flop calling range.

So yeah the plan was to call down because I think he can fire his pairs OTR - just not for this sizing. Like is 99 firing that large after putting me on AK? No. It's obv going to fire smaller.

He kinda snap-bet it as well which made me hesitate. I was thinking the only hands he can autobet without even thinking about my range for that large sizing is his FH's and JJ so it's a case of do we think he does this with his air enough to make a call profitable for us. Does he even snap bet his air here?

 

[Matt Vaughan]

Snap-bet just means he didn't think about checking behind. So it can be air, monsters, anything he already knew he was going to bet. If he had a boat here, oh well. I'm never, ever folding this river, especially given that you just said he was more of a LAG anyway.

And I also don't think you can really say "No, 99 obv fires smaller." You've played 33 hands with him. That's not enough to really be inside his head and know how he perceives your range, and then how he adjusts his sizing based on that. If he is even thinking about ranges at all.