10-15 buy-in downswings

[Jreece18]

Yeah, so if you count your win rate from say the 10k hands mark you're playing pretty well and your win rate really isn't too bad.

I'd recommend reading The Mental Game of Poker. It's the idea that your mental strength and ability to handle bad beats and downswings actually have a huge impact on your win rate. The mental side of poker is more important that most other games/sports due to the high variance. Such as with the above hands, aces will lose to Kings like 20% of the time... The way I frame bad beats is 'losing to Kings there means I can look forward to winning the next 4 times'. Obviously it doesn't quite work out like that, but anything that helps you frame the situation so you can almost enjoy bad beats is positive.

Your results are extremely similar to what mine were a few months ago and I really do recommend paying less attention to your short term results. I felt like I'd somehow picked up bad habits which was what caused the breakeven stretch, but most of the time it is just variance. I used to check my winnings every 5 minutes during a session and it just isn't beneficial to your enjoyment of the game when you go through a 'breakeven rut'.

And yesterday you schooled me with pocket 9's vs my AK so it can't be all coolers haha.

 

[TheArnie]

Yeah, so if you count your win rate from say the 10k hands mark you're playing pretty well and your win rate really isn't too bad.

I'd recommend reading The Mental Game of Poker. It's the idea that your mental strength and ability to handle bad beats and downswings actually have a huge impact on your win rate. The mental side of poker is more important that most other games/sports due to the high variance. Such as with the above hands, aces will lose to Kings like 20% of the time... The way I frame bad beats is 'losing to Kings there means I can look forward to winning the next 4 times'. Obviously it doesn't quite work out like that, but anything that helps you frame the situation so you can almost enjoy bad beats is positive.

Your results are extremely similar to what mine were a few months ago and I really do recommend paying less attention to your short term results. I felt like I'd somehow picked up bad habits which was what caused the breakeven stretch, but most of the time it is just variance. I used to check my winnings every 5 minutes during a session and it just isn't beneficial to your enjoyment of the game when you go through a 'breakeven rut'.

And yesterday you schooled me with pocket 9's vs my AK so it can't be all coolers haha.

Setmining for life

 

[starting_at_the_bottom]

Are downswings like these a common occurence in micro cash games?

Depends how good you are relative to the other players.

Yes there is always variance and its unavoidable, but better players will have smaller downswings as they will be making fewer mistakes.

 

[proud2Bwhack]

you should be as aggressive as you can be, you want to win the tournament not make the money. aggression + variance = downswings
check out Stu Ungers life/style of play. If your aggression isnt getting you in trouble, you're not being aggressive enough. He won the wsop twice going all out in aggression.

 

[Poker Orifice]

you should be as aggressive as you can be, you want to win the tournament not make the money. aggression + variance = downswings
check out Stu Ungers life/style of play. If your aggression isnt getting you in trouble, you're not being aggressive enough. He won the WSOP twice going all out in aggression.

Answer is definitely in keeping with your name.. it is Whack! Did you read the OP? OP isn't playing tournaments... sigh

 

[Poker Orifice]

Alright, My biggest money drainers are hands like these. I seem to grind up for 1-2k hands, for thing like this to happen, then grind up again and repeat the cycle.

***** 888poker Hand History for Game 530234716 *****
$0.01/$0.02 Blinds No Limit Holdem - *** 10 01 2016 22:58:38
Table Leicester 9 Max (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 1: HaNk_GE ( $2 )
Seat 2: zakk815 ( $0.40 )
Seat 3: SashAAdams ( $2.47 )
Seat 4: Br_Smb ( $2 )
Seat 5: krucipisek ( $0.36 )
Seat 6: vladuika77 ( $0.76 )
Seat 9: Zepa10 ( $6.82 )
Seat 10: TheArnie ( $4.84 )
SashAAdams posts small blind [$0.01]
Br_Smb posts big blind [$0.02]
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to TheArnie [ Ts, Kd ]
krucipisek calls [$0.02]
vladuika77 folds
Zepa10 raises [$0.07]
TheArnie calls [$0.07]
HaNk_GE folds
zakk815 folds
SashAAdams folds
Br_Smb folds
krucipisek calls [$0.05]
** Dealing flop ** [ 7d, Kh, Ks ]
krucipisek checks
Zepa10 bets [$0.18]
TheArnie calls [$0.18]
krucipisek folds
** Dealing turn ** [ 8h ]
Zepa10 bets [$0.45]
TheArnie raises [$1.57]
Zepa10 calls [$1.12]
** Dealing river ** [ 3d ]
Zepa10 checks
TheArnie bets [$3.02]
Zepa10 calls [$3.02]
** Summary **
Zepa10 shows [ Kc, Ah ]
TheArnie shows [ Ts, Kd ]
Zepa10 collected [ $9.17 ]

KTo in eMP vs. an EP open on a fullring table is a SUPER easy fold pre!!!!
This for starters is one way that for sure you are bleeding money. This is the type of hand that has huge reverse implied odds.
This wasn't a situation where you've gotten unlucky.. this was just a huge mistake in preflop hand selection.

 

[proud2Bwhack]

you mentioned tilt... lol.

If you are playing out of position, that is a major leak.

 

[droozy]

answer

Hello,

I had similar problem like you, long downswing after many good seasons. Then, i have found out i had started to play too much speculative hands like 7-6s in EP what i have never ever done before. I think you should analyze your range again.

 

[jelani]

depends on how you play usually though a 15 buy in loss at anytime is you doing something wrong.

 

[jelani]

in my opinion anyway. not much of a no limit player though.i have been able to get my swings in plo down to a 7 buy in loss.at anytime. and plo is much more variance. anything more than that is usually me. still depends on your playing style.how aggressive you are

 

[6bet me]

I've had multiple 15-20 BI downswings. It's just variance. Just in the past hour I lost 10 buyins at 10NL (4 BI was lost in a single hand!). Let me show you my results graph for the session:

 

[TimovieMan]

Did you lose a 400BB hand there???

Still so happy to play deep?

 

[Dorugremon]

Are downswings like these a common occurence in micro cash games?

No, but they can happen. Once, I got it in good and lost more than a half dozen times in a row. GII with ( A,A ) get called by pocket jacks, and lose to a runner, runner flush. Catch some fish overplaying TPTK with 2nd set on dry board: he hits his 2-outer. Make some fish make a -EV call with a sub-nut flush draw and he binks on the river. And so on and so on... get stacks in good, come out bad; makes you wonder if the RNG really is rigged

Most of them caused from cooler situations, like overpair v overpair or set over set, some by bad beats and roughly 2-3 because of tilt, probably.

Are you sure? Losing overpair v. overpair could be a cooler, but are you sure you're not overplaying overpairs? This is a very common NLHE mistake: over valuing TPTK and overpairs. This isn't fixed limit, and these types of hands need to be played cautiously in high SPR pots. Do big pairs (especially aces and kings) become a "till death do us part" proposition? Can you lay it down when it looks likely you're out flopped? Set over set: not much you can do about that, especially on wet boards that could make 2nd best hands. On bone dry boards, it's easier to get away from bottom set. Tilt is unacceptable, and that needs work.

When I used to play micro turbo sng, I know 20 buyin downswings were normal. Are 2 dowswings of this magnitude over 2 weeks (overall I am break even now) normal or there could be something more than variance beating me?

No one but you can answer that, and it takes the ability to be honest with yourself, free from rationalizations. If the money is going in good, and the vills are making improbable runner, runner draws, or hitting one or two outers, then all you can do is hope the runbad ends before they lose it all and disappear.

If you're usually calling with 2nd best, then something's wrong and needs work.

 

[6bet me]

Did you lose a 400BB hand there???

Still so happy to play deep?

Yeah the total pot was over 800bb.

Haha yeah it would be a bit results-oriented for me to say that I hate deep-stacked poker all because of this one hand. I've looked through my HM2 database and I've had far more huge wins (250bb+ net profit in a single hand) than I have huge losses (250bb+ net loss in a single hand).

And let's be honest: when you're dealt AA preflop in a spot like that, you have to be so thankful that you have a deep-stack. If the flop had been something like 237 rainbow, perhaps the KK would've paid me off. If I wanted to minimise the risk, I could've just jammed in 400bb preflop, but I instead chose to make a 100bb raise preflop and get the other 300bb in on the flop. I think that this play was higher EV than just jamming it all in preflop, since I can induce calls from weaker hands, although the variance is higher too.

I did analyse that hand though and I do think that the most optimum thing I could've done would've been to raise slightly larger preflop (like between 120bb and 140bb and then get the rest in on the flop), but I didn't play so bad either and I am fairly happy with the hand, despite the results.

 

[billbaffles]

I have noticed sometimes down 10-15 buy-ins but it doesnt happen very often. Usually it is a slow incline over time and sometimes a big win to go with but I have found that it does happen. Either playing loose and speculating or loosing to suck-outs repeatedly and having to reload but it is no big deal in the long run. Most of the time, Ive won back the losses on the same day or the next and never meant anything so I would just stick with it and continue to get your money in good and it works out.

 

[Matthew tudberry]

Yes my friend. You should really get into PLO as mentioned, will make you a better mathematician when it comes to draws and will really teach you about swings, both up and down. Try to think of variance as a mini game in itself.

 

[simmo5050]

Try using a poker variance calculator. If , say, you have a standard deviation of 100 and a win rate of around 4bb/100 , you'll have around a 20% chance of having a losing 100k hands.

Most players even some winning onrs don't seem to realise how even 100,000 hands is quite a "short run" period.

If you are losing or winning at a lower rate , or winning at the same rate with a higher standard deviation, your chance of a losing 100k period will be greater.

 

[darpblog]

. For 10 buy downswings in NL2, in my experience, there was always some sort of tilt involved.

 

[EarnDAStack]

One of the 2.50/5 zoom players who goes by the name "mynameiskarl" does a fantastic youtube video on variance and what you can expect over different hand samples. He also includes the tool he uses that I haven't actually gotten a chance to check out.