Would you make this call with this many outs?

[twizzybop]

Go from an open ended straight draw to an open ended straight flush draw...


Table: 5189222 (real money) Seat #1 is the dealer
Seat 1 - POCKETMERCY ($1450 in chips)
Seat 2 - TWIZZYBOP ($1670 in chips)
Seat 3 - SMILIN4IT ($1260 in chips)
Seat 4 - ALLFIELD00 ($1460 in chips)
Seat 5 - CORK88 ($1020 in chips)
Seat 6 - THEGAVIN ($1580 in chips)
Seat 7 - LADYACE2 ($2170 in chips)
Seat 8 - WOFTAM 1 ($1450 in chips)
Seat 9 - PAPPARAY ($1440 in chips)
TWIZZYBOP - Posts small blind $10
SMILIN4IT - Posts big blind $20
*** POCKET CARDS ***
Dealt to TWIZZYBOP [3d Kd]
ALLFIELD00 - Folds
CORK88 - Calls $20
THEGAVIN - Calls $20
LADYACE2 - Calls $20
WOFTAM 1 - Calls $20
PAPPARAY - Calls $20
POCKETMERCY - Folds
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $10
SMILIN4IT - Checks
*** FLOP *** [2d 4s 5c]
TWIZZYBOP - Checks
SMILIN4IT - Checks
CORK88 - Bets $140
THEGAVIN - Folds
LADYACE2 - Calls $140
WOFTAM 1 - Folds
PAPPARAY - Folds
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $140
SMILIN4IT - Calls $140
*** TURN *** [2d 4s 5c] [Jd]
TWIZZYBOP - Checks
SMILIN4IT - Checks
CORK88 - All-In $860
LADYACE2 - Folds
TWIZZYBOP - Calls $860
SMILIN4IT - Folds
*** RIVER *** [2d 4s 5c Jd] [7d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
TWIZZYBOP - Shows [3d Kd] (Flush, king high)
CORK88 - Shows [2c 2s] (Three of a kind, twos)
TWIZZYBOP Collects $2420 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total Pot($2420)
Board [2d 4s 5c Jd 7d]
Seat 1: POCKETMERCY (dealer) Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 2: TWIZZYBOP (small blind) won Total ($2420) HI$2420) with Flush, king high [3d Kd - P:Kd,B:Jd,B:7d,P:3d,B:2d]
Seat 3: SMILIN4IT (big blind) Folded on the TURN
Seat 4: ALLFIELD00 Folded on the POCKET CARDS
Seat 5: CORK88 HI:lost with Three of a kind, twos [2c 2s - P:2s,B:2d,P:2c,B:Jd,B:7d]
Seat 6: THEGAVIN Folded on the FLOP
Seat 7: LADYACE2 Folded on the TURN
Seat 8: WOFTAM 1 Folded on the FLOP
Seat 9: PAPPARAY Folded on the FLOP

 

[titans4ever]

At that point, I think you could have guessed that your king may still be good and he was scaring off the flush draw. You had 18 outs. The odds were there to make the call, I just hate calling an all-in when I only have K high in a tournament. You play a ring game and I would make it all day long.

 

[twizzybop]

Yes that is what I normally do.. ring games.. sit and goes.. with the occasional 1.00 MTT.. Still not that confident about myself just yet to move up.. cause I admit I still make a lot of stupid moves.

 

[F Paulsson]

Did you have any reads on any of the people in the hand?

Otherwise: Bad call.

A couple of observations:

Your outs weren't clean,
1. You weren't drawing to the nut flush
2. You weren't drawing to the nut straight

Furthermore, the odds were very barely there. You got ~2:1 if you thought ALL your outs were good, and that's what the pot was laying you almost exactly. You should avoid close gambles in tournaments, especially calling an all-in. Pushing is better than calling, because in this case, you had no chance of him folding - you had no "fold equity".

Third, and this is a big one, you weren't last to act - there's another guy behind you which might kill your outs. I suppose if he calls you're probably better off than if he folds (because you have reasonably strong draws) but so why didn't you push the rest of your stack in?

It's a fold. Pushing all-in isn't awful, but calling is pretty bad here.

 

[F Paulsson]

God. I forgot the top pair outs.

See, this is why I hate it when you post the results. It doesn't help, it confuses the matter. I knew he had trip 2s, so I wasn't even looking for the additional outs.

Please stop posting results. I don't see a point to discuss a know-state hand, unless you're unsure how to calculate your outs and your odds. In that case, I can tell you that they were 29-to-15 in this particular hand, against this particular opponent.

 

[twizzybop]

I can tell you that they were 29-to-15 in this particular hand, against this particular opponent.

Thanks.. that part I don't know.

Hey when I don't posts the results just yet, I hardly get a response..*scratching head* doesn't matter cause I hardly get a response anyway when I do post results unless of course it was a dumb dumb move made by me

 

[Jesus Lederer]

NEVER limp from the SB!

 

[F Paulsson]

I can tell you that they were 29-to-15 in this particular hand, against this particular opponent.

Thanks.. that part I don't know.

Hey when I don't posts the results just yet, I hardly get a response..*scratching head* doesn't matter cause I hardly get a response anyway when I do post results unless of course it was a dumb dumb move made by me

Ew, it's even worse. Now I missed the tainted diamonds!

Your outs, knowing now what we didn't know then, were in fact 13. Four aces, four sixes and 5 diamonds (that are not aces, sixes, fours or fives).

That leaves you 31-to-13, which moves it from being a borderline situation to an outright incorrect one.

The reason, and I want to make this point very clearly, that you shouldn't post the results is that knowing afterwards that you had 13 outs doesn't make you a better poker player. Calculating a decent estimation, and considering all possibilities without complete information, however, does make you a better poker player.

 

[twizzybop]

Ty..Ty..Ty.. reason of limping.. Mix it up.. rare occasion that I limped in.

But see by limping shows clear reasoning why not to.. wouldn't have had this situation had I not limped in.

 

[twizzybop]

You got ~2:1 on a 2:1 Call.. correct.. dead even right there and emphasis on dead.

 

[Xandit]

I think the flop call was marginal with regards to pot odds a break even situation pot=420/bet 140 odds against for the straight 3 to 1. 140x3=420. However the implied odds are very good.

It's the turn that complicates everything. with the pot and villan bet the pot=1560, twiz needs the pot to pay 1548 for the call to be correct. I figured this with 16 outs. pot/1560/bet 860 odds against 1.8 860x1.6=1548. (if we round up to 2 it's 1720 to call so we fold.)

[Your outs, knowing now what we didn't know then, were in fact 13. Four aces, four sixes and 5 diamonds (that are not aces, sixes, fours or fives).]? i can't seem to find your outs here fpaul.

So from a purely pot odds situation he is just barely getting the right odds to call. now i fold here on the turn. and save my chips so i can get them in on a better situation. the call is just to close but it can go either way if you want to gamble. IMO.

 

[holduplaya]

Fold

I would have folded the straight draw because I suck and had the feeling the guy had trips right off the flop. However, If I called and the turn came and gave me a flush draw as well as a straight draw I would have to see the river no matter who what when or where thats just me so good job and congradulations for the win.

Good Luck in the future.

 

[F Paulsson]

[Your outs, knowing now what we didn't know then, were in fact 13. Four aces, four sixes and 5 diamonds (that are not aces, sixes, fours or fives).]? i can't seem to find your outs here fpaul.

The four and five of diamond would give his opponent a full house. Therefore, these are not outs.

 

[Xandit]

i see now what you mean. Thanks for the correction, but as you stated earlier poker is a game of incomplete information. If you don't know for sure that the villian has trips you can't count those cards out. So it still stands as a coin flip/slight underdog. We both aggree that we wouldn't play the turn as the implied odds on the flop were to good to lay down.