BTN Cold Calling Light vs EP
6 max .10 .25 BB
MP Raise .75 - Starting Stack $25 (Villain)
Button Ks Jd call - Starting Stack $25 (Hero)
Action folds through
Flop 9hjh9s
Villain checks Hero bet 3/4th pot Villain calls
Turn 9d
Villain checks hero bet 3/4th pot Villain calls
River 3c
Villain goes all in for near pot size bet.
Hero should.......?
Obviously quads in back of mind but possible slowed played QQ? What should hero do?
Hello there zbalogh, thank you very much for sharing with the CardsChat community.
Lemme kindly try to help you:
The Preflop
First of all, I don't love calling IP vs MP dominated combos, such as AJ, AT, A9, etc KQ, KJ, KT, etc, QJ, QT, Q9, etc, you name it all the combos.
Unless I know the players in the blinds are very weak or can be exploited postflop, I am simply folding my KJ combos or 3-betting these very combos.
If you see that EP opponent is getting out of line (in the long run) and raising more than it should from EP, than you might start calling here to play a flop, but even so it is very risky.
When we hit Top Pair we never know if we are ahead and we might ending up losing quite a few value.
the postflop
The Flop
Villain checks oop and Hero c-bets 3/4 pots expecting to be paid by which group of WORST/LOSING/DOMINATED hands? Here there is a great chance of EP only pay us with AJ or 9x.
You may assume that EP will contain on its range some TT, QQ, KK and AA but those are only 48 combos of the total hands that your range might extract value from, and when EP calls you with AJ, QQ, KK and AA you are always dominated.
The Turn
It doesn't change the picture at all and again, which worst hands we expect to be paying us on such a dry turn? 88? 77? 22 maybe? AK is paying 3/4 pot here again to see if it hits the Ax or Kx OTR?
I don't like to bet for value on spots where I simply have no bluffs to balance my range, and this turn is one of the situations where I am only betting 3/4 pot when I hit the Jx, the 9x, or I have QQ+. Even AJ I don't know why would I bother betting so high and give an easy fold for the greatest part of UTG range.
The River
Since you already invested too much going 3/4 flop and 3/4 turn, and Villain noticed that you had a strong hand, because I believe you have no bluffs here, or enough bluffs, and then EP donks river by jamming, giving you an excellent price to call with your Full-House.
The problem here is that when EP donks jam this river, your Full-House is never winning or in the best case scenario it would be even:
EP players is not jamming this river with 22, 44, 55, 66, 77, 88, 99 impossible, TT.
So it rests JJ, which I believe we are also even, AJ, QQ, KK and AA, and none of those hands we are beating.
Yeah, the problem here is that we cannot see many 9x on EP's range, but it doesn't matter at all, since EP will never have enough bluffs on this river, what it decided to go wild here after Hero/IP demonstrated a lot of strength flop/turn and decided to bluff its AK, AQ or missed straight draw?
Are you sure that players at the micros/mid stakes are so creative to be putting up a bluff like this OTR? If you think so, then call and see it.
Regards;
Carlos 'Aballinamion' Barbosa