What is the correct play?

dufferdevon

dufferdevon

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Playing live for the second time in a long while. The table I was at was $2/$5 no limit and was as loose as many .05/.10 games online. The cards being shown down were not very good and many players over valued TPTK. One of my sets ended with three callers at the river for a monster pot. Anyway, on to the hand at hand.

I have the button. UTG calls, fold, fold, call, call, fold, call, hero (7s,8s) call, SB raises to $20, BB folds everyone else calls including me. There is now $120 in the pot.

Flop comes 5h, 6s, 2s

UTG bets $40, one other call then it folds around to me, I call, SB raises to $140-all-in, everyone fold around to me. There is now $380 in the pot and it costs me another $100 to go. My stack would be down to $400 with the max buyin being $300 for the table. I have already invested $60 in this pot.

I have 15 outs out of 47 cards left or roughly 30% to win and I'm getting almost 4:1 on my money.

What should I have done?
 
Richyl2008

Richyl2008

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Snap call, I probably would have reraised utgs original bet. Your getting better than the odds you need here. With small suited connectors that make flush draws I like playing them aggressively to try and get fold equity from some of the bigger flush draws by giving them poor pot odds. Not really sure if you would actually have much fold equity against the bigger flush draws at this loose table but you have the oesd to go with it. And I would say you are more than 30% to win since the small blind probably has an overpair the way he played this hand, which would make you a favorite
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Dude, you're getting 4:1 with a combo draw.

I shove flop, but as played it's a snapcall.
 
dufferdevon

dufferdevon

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That's what I thought too. So I call and SB turns over his two pair (5d,6h). Turn comes 2c and the river 8h. Giving me a higher two pair !!

I thought buddy was going to lose it right there but all he said was, "That was not the way I expected to lose that hand."
 
Poker Orifice

Poker Orifice

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Flop comes 5h, 6s, 2s

UTG bets $40, one other call then it folds around to me, I call, SB raises to $140-all-in, everyone fold around to me. There is now $380 in the pot and it costs me another $100 to go. My stack would be down to $400 with the max buyin being $300 for the table. I have already invested $60 in this pot.

I have 15 outs out of 47 cards left or roughly 30% to win and I'm getting almost 4:1 on my money.

What should I have done?[/quote]

How do ya figure you only have a 30% shot at winning with this? I figure you've easily got 15outs for the win (but also have two overs, mind you hitting them may not do much if say buddy had an overpair). I would've raised the UTG bet FOR SURE!!
With 15outs on the flop, you're actually 56.1% odds to win,.. not 30%. (simple rule for 'roughly' calculating odds,.. the '2' - '4' rule,.. multiply your outs x '4' on the flop, and x '2' on the turn).
A couple of your outs would've given him a fullhouse but you're still better than even money here and personally I would ALWAYS bet over just call (you're most likely going to get rid of one player right then and there and who knows, you might take down the pot right then on the flop with the shove as 'villain' might be putting you on a set or some monster,.. and you did have a monster draw).
 
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