This is a discussion on What am I doing wrong Part 2 within the online poker forums, in the Cash Game Hand Analysis section; Yes these are beats... But there has to be something I am doing wrong. Sizing, Bet or Check, ect. I am lost in this mess
Stack is 90, blinds are 1/2, so you have 45 BB. There are 4 limpers in the pot for 11$, you raise to 20$, so 18 more to call. 1 caller makes the pot 49$, with your 70 behind, it means you have an SPR (Stack Pot Ratio) of 1.42 (70/49) - which means you are committed to playing for stacks on most flops.
So your options are - shove pre (which is fine - you win the pot usually 70%+, and are usually flipping if an Ax hand decides to call).
Cbet/Overbet the flop - if villain had AK he probably would have reraised pre, weaker aces if they called your preflop raise (unlikely) will likely fear that you have a dominating ace and fold. Mostly only stubborn TT/99 hands wouldn't have raised pre and might call a flop overbet jam.
Checking the flop seems pretty bad here - what is the goal?
The board pairing the turn and you jam - hrmm not awful - but now all of the hands that feared you had an Ace on the flop think it far less likely. You could be jamming PPs but also a jam with spades and high cards or spades and a GSD, or a pure desperation bluff. So more of his weaker PPs that beat you are calling, and all of his Ax that feared a bigger Ace will call.
I don't like villains call here, since he loses to some of your bluffs and has only 12% equity at most vs your PPs and is dead if you failed to CBet with an Ax hand on the flop.
When you end up on the turn like this, I think you could have checked the turn, then bluff catch the river or thin value bet the river.
Also we can use range thinking to see if this is a profitable shove. If we think villain bets flop or turn with his Ax hands, and give villain a wide calling range - any overcards and PP on the turn - TT-22,K9s+,QTs+,K9o+,QTo+.
Then your shove has 70% equity against this range. So your turn shove is worth
.7*(119) - .3 * 70 = 62.3 - so you are averaging 31 BB of profit.
Small Pairs are for making Sets. 95.8% of the time, when you have 66, an over-card is going to hit the flop. You should have called.
Assuming that the Blinds call/check, in addition to the 4 other fellows, you get $14 to $2 odds. 11.8% of the time, you'll flop a set. Because you need to win the hand at least 14.3% of the time, to break even, statistically, you're behind 2.5%.
But, when you do make a Set, especially in a 7-way pot, odds are that you're going to stack somebody; which definitely offsets the 2.5% deficit.
I think you should just call IP with your 66 here pre-flop. As played I think you can range bet the flop for 1/3 pot. when you check the flop you cap your own range so villain probably doesn't think you hold many aces anymore. As played on the turn I think you could make a case to bet small or check I think a small bet will protect your hand a little bit and get value versus over-cards like the ones villains holding but I think checking turn is also good because I think we don't mind getting to showdown since 66 does have some showdown value. You turned your hand into a bluff when it wasn't needed. If you are going to bet the turn you want to think about what you are trying to accomplish. When you are betting as bluff you want to bet the smallest amount that will give you the effects your after. For example if you think your opponent would fold all but his nut hands no matter how much you bet you would rather opt for betting smaller because you will be risking less and still getting the same desired effects. Finally I would make a note about this villain that he calls like this and adjust to him in the future.