TP with OESD

[loopmeister]

** Rugger Bugger [Hold 'em] (2.00|4.00 Pot Limit - Cash Game) real money

- Royal-Fusion sitting in seat 1 with R284.87
- -slayer- sitting in seat 2 with R310.64
- daxi1234 sitting in seat 3 with R445.32
- BLERTS sitting in seat 4 with R443.33
- Waterbabyman sitting in seat 7 with R248.00 [Sitting out]
- loopy sitting in seat 8 with R294.54 [Dealer]

Royal-Fusion posted the small blind - R2.00
-slayer- posted the big blind - R4.00

** Dealing card to loopy: 10 of Diamonds, 9 of Clubs
daxi1234 folded
Waterbabyman reconnected
BLERTS called - R4.00
loopy called - R4.00
Royal-Fusion called - R4.00
-slayer- checked

** Dealing the flop: 8 of Spades, 7 of Hearts, 7 of Spades
Royal-Fusion checked
-slayer- checked
BLERTS bet - R8.00
loopy called - R8.00
Royal-Fusion folded
-slayer- raised - R16.00
BLERTS called - R16.00
loopy called - R16.00

** Dealing the turn: 10 of Clubs
-slayer- checked
BLERTS bet - R32.00
loopy raised - R64.00
-slayer- raised - R288.00
BLERTS folded
loopy thinks, then calls

villian has been playing LAG and has been having a bit of a e-nis waving contest with Royal-Fusion. I'll let you all rag on me then I'll explain why I think this wasn't the worst call in the history of poker (in terms of EV). [Pot was 453 -- 210 to call]

 

[loopmeister]

Crap. The Enron disclaimer: I noticed a *ahem* oversight in my calculations, and have revised my earlier profit expectations downwards slightly.

Rag away with justification.

 

[F Paulsson]

Is limping T9o PF standard for you?

 

[ChuckTs]

Ya, don't like the PF limp. Shorthanded, it should be raise or fold IMO.

As for postflop, if you've got a good read on your oppoent, then why not stick em in. The only thing I'm worried about is him waking up with a bigger hand like 88/ A7 or whatever and using that LAG image to his advantage in order to set up a big pot like this.

 

[loopmeister]

Is limping T9o PF standard for you?

Not standard, no. but I do mix it up on the button with the bigger connectors sometimes (78, 89, 9T). I'll limp in about 50% with these.

Not that it's an excuse, but I'd put in a huge 11hr day at work, and had had a few beers and was only at about 65% at this point. When he went all-in I put him on A7 or overpair; with a fair chance that he was bluffing. I'll admit that at the time I didn't realise that an 88 would crush me. So my 20sec analysis thought, "yeah, prolly losing but okay".

Later I went and did some math, and the results indicate that a call was still better than a fold:

EV Call     	%V holds	%winning	%losing	%splitting
FH            	15%	5%	96%	0%
Set           	35%	23%	77%	0%
Overcards	20%	86%	14%	0%
lower kicker	10%	59%	6%	35%
higher kicker	10%	25%	60%	15%
overpair   	10%	23%	77%	0%

Weighted  	100%	37%	58%	5%
Winnings		 +336 	 -294	 +21.00 
        		 +123 	 -172	 +1 

EV fold	-84			
EV call	-47

 

[Arjonius]

I'm not about to check the math, but I suspect the reason calling has a less negative EV is at least partly due to your raise on the turn with a hand that rates to be behind most of the time, especially considering there were still two opponents at that moment.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You think villain could be 3-bet shoving with a T and a worse kicker here?

That's.... optimistic of you.

Fold pf, fold flop (drawing to a straight on a paired 2-flush board is seldom wise), fold turn.

 

[loopmeister]

I'm not about to check the math, but I suspect the reason calling has a less negative EV is at least partly due to your raise on the turn with a hand that rates to be behind most of the time, especially considering there were still two opponents at that moment.

Yes, that's the only reason. In retrospect, the raise was madness.

 

[dbitel]

OMG this is bad.

You really should be raising preflop, but its not like an overlimp is TERRIBLE.

I think the 1st flop call is OK, but the 2nd is a fold. A 2-tone, paired board in an unraised, mutiway pot and theres been a check/minraise....thats trouble!

The minraise on the turn is one of the most god-awful moves I've ever seen. It really is akin to taking money out your wallet and lighting it on fire. I really don't want to be too mean, and it might have something to do with being hungover, but I actually really want to throw up just looking at it!

The call of the raise is just sooooo sooooo sooooo bad. Your assumptions are TERRIBLE here. You think he has just overcards 20% of the time????? You're 100% barmy!!!! The dude c/minraised the flop then bet/3bet all in on teh turn!!!! You think he has an overpair? WTF? YES HE JUST CHECKED HIS BB WITH JJ+ LOL!!!!!! Why the **** are you putting him on a Ten? How is that 20% of his range? Why on earth would he check/minraise the flop with a ten in his hand!!!!!

He has either a boat or trips here 90%+ of the time and its that simple and your call is just beyond terrible.

I must admit, I don't know quite how you've done the last bit of your EV calcs, but in general, the EV of folding is always zero

 

[loopmeister]

1. Yes this was a shocker. I play better than this most of the time. Really.

2. Now as bad as the poker was, you can trust my maths: For the EV, its a matter of definitions; what I've actually calculated is profit/loss numbers for the whole hand - if you use pot odds instead, then EV(fold)=0. Ultimately the answers come out the same. I derive the sums each time and profit/loss analysis is more intuitive for me. The calculation is correct, even if the ranges aren't.

 

[loopmeister]

Oh, btw. If the hand ranges are made less "optimistic" (I'm quoting DM rather than Dbitel for aesthetic reasons), the EV for calling slips way below that of folding, to the tune of 50 bucks.