Straight and flush draw on flop. Too aggressive?

BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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I just did my first session of 6 tabling 10NL and there are a few hands I'd like your opinion on. Here's the first one. Is this too aggressive on the flop ?

pokerstars Game #17568053775: Hold'em No Limit ($0.05/$0.10) - 2008/05/20 - 14:39:28 (ET)
Table 'Indiana III' 9-max Seat #9 is the button
Seat 1: stationbc ($9.90 in chips)
Seat 2: e30rocks ($21.40 in chips)
Seat 4: HariaKeez ($14.45 in chips)
Seat 5: BelgoSuisse ($8.85 in chips)
Seat 6: BLITZzzz ($8.15 in chips)
Seat 7: mf6gfbrj ($4.10 in chips)
Seat 8: PRG87 ($2 in chips)
Seat 9: Camilla82 ($3.55 in chips)
stationbc: posts small blind $0.05
e30rocks: posts big blind $0.10
Vonci: sits out
mf6gfbrj: posts small & big blinds $0.15
PRG87: posts small & big blinds $0.15
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to BelgoSuisse [7h Ah]
HariaKeez: calls $0.10
BelgoSuisse: calls $0.10
BLITZzzz: folds
mf6gfbrj: checks
PRG87: checks
Camilla82: calls $0.10
stationbc: folds
e30rocks: checks
*** FLOP *** [6h 4c 5h]
e30rocks: checks
HariaKeez: bets $0.30
BelgoSuisse: raises $0.70 to $1
mf6gfbrj: folds
PRG87: folds
Camilla82: folds
e30rocks: folds
HariaKeez: raises $0.70 to $1.70
BelgoSuisse: raises $7.05 to $8.75 and is all-in
HariaKeez: calls $7.05
 
D

Dr_Dick

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Well, I question the value of your all-in push. Are you really getting any fold equity here? Villain leads out, you raise, villain reraises, do you really think you are going to get villain to fold with an all-in? It is pretty obvious when villain re-raises only .70 that he thinks whatever he has is pretty good. He is willing to see the turn on a draw heavy flop.

But, your push is still probably not the worst play ever. With all the outs you have your probably a coin flip at this point. If you fold you are left with $7.75. If instead you push and get called, the pot is $18.25. So even if your a dog you are looking to loose less in the long run than by folding outright. If you are 45% then you make $8.21 and at 40% you make $7.30.
 
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c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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This is a pretty bad spot to play a draw this fast.

1) This is a 6 way pot. By just calling, you could entice some more players into the pot. By raising you shut that money out.

2) Villain bet $0.3 into $0.75, giving you 3.5:1. You have a 2.8:1 draw to the turn. Take those odds!

3) We're so freakin' deep! The pot was un-raised, and both we & villain have fairly full stacks (you should top off your stack BTW). If you raise, and villain just calls, you're in a big pot with half the equity on the turn. You're lucky villain decided to let you off easy and 3-bet you.

4) This goes along with #1, but by allowing others in the pot, villains can make smaller flushes & straights that we can get LOTS of value out of. By raising, small straight & flush draws may fold.

There are certainly times for shoving all your chips in on the draw (and I love doing it). But this, IMO, wasn't one of those times.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Well this is a lot better than calling off your stack with the same draw/stack size etc, but I do like calling and letting as many people as you can get to call behind you.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Well this is a lot better than calling off your stack with the same draw/stack size etc, but I do like calling and letting as many people as you can get to call behind you.

I see that now. I actually shoved because I counted 15 outs and thought I had the best hand at that time, but running things in pokerstove, I realise I'm only 45% to win against a made straight because we share some outs, and only 40% to win against a made set because he can redraw to a full house.

Well, maybe I get a set to fold thinking I have the made straight here, which would make shoving +ev, but I guess calling and letting others in is indeed way better.

*** TURN *** [6h 4c 5h] [9s]
*** RIVER *** [6h 4c 5h 9s] [5d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
HariaKeez: shows [3d 7d] (a straight, Three to Seven)
BelgoSuisse: mucks hand
HariaKeez collected $17.35 from pot

villain limps UTG with 73s, but I guess the way I played this hand makes his play fine as I give him huge implied odds...
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I don't think anyone at this limit is folding a set. But I do think the fact that he limps UTG with 37 is pretty good information to use for later.

But yeah, a far better result would be to pay the 30 cents, and use the implied odds he's offering YOU to stack him when you hit, and fold cheaply when you don't. Think about it, you can invest 30 cents on the flop to win up to $8.45 on later streets. And these players are *not* folding a straight at these limits (just like they aren't folding sets).

Compare this to set mining, where you need 12:1 to set mine. Well you're being offered 8.45/0.3 = 28:1. And you actually have pot odds as well. Add in some money from players calling behind you, and the fact that you know he has a pretty good hand, and this becomes the easiest *call* in the book. No need to go getting frisky with fold equity & all that yet.

In general, at super low limits, fold equity isn't something you should count on. If anything, count on them calling your bets on later streets and giving you implied odds. Players are much more likely to make a big call, than they are to make a big lay down.
 
F

feitr

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Yea i think the mistake was counting on fold equity in NL10. You can't exactly put villain on a made straight, but after leading out then reraising you can be 99% sure he would call off his entire bankroll on whatever hand he has. When you have no fold equity, shoving a draw, even one as big as this is never a good idea.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Yea i think the mistake was counting on fold equity in NL10. You can't exactly put villain on a made straight, but after leading out then reraising you can be 99% sure he would call off his entire bankroll on whatever hand he has. When you have no fold equity, shoving a draw, even one as big as this is never a good idea.

Yes, I guess I need to tone down the natural aggression in me. That's a real issue for the transition from SNGs to cash tables i guess.

BTW, my own stats are 17/9/3.5 over close to 5000 hands. Is that in a good range ?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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When you have no fold equity, shoving a draw, even one as big as this is never a good idea.
Not to mention, we make money in poker when our opponents make mistakes. So what mistake is he most likely to make? Pay you off when you hit your flush, or fold the best hand.

Those stats look fine to me. With a lot of your posts, it just looks like you're targeting the wrong people with aggression, or treating every unknown as a 100$ NL nit. Unknowns in 10$ NL are usually stupid until they prove otherwise, treat them as such.

Also, get some more reads. If you're not noticing big holes in their game (like they limp 37s UTG) before you get all in with them, that's a problem.
 
Jillychemung

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BTW, my own stats are 17/9/3.5 over close to 5000 hands. Is that in a good range ?


Is this all NL10? What is yur BB/100 with these? As far as preflop/flop this is nice and tight.
 
BelgoSuisse

BelgoSuisse

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Is this all NL10? What is yur BB/100 with these? As far as preflop/flop this is nice and tight.

This is all NL10, yes. I'm about +8 BB/100 but half the hands were played on full tilt where the rake costs about 9 BB/100 :eek:, so I guess i'd be about +10 BB/100 if I had played pokerstars only.

I'm still learning and I have the feeling I got more beats and coolers than the other way round, so I guess I should be able to improve this win rate a bit.
 
Jillychemung

Jillychemung

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IMHO with these numbers it's time to move up if your BR allows it. With the same style play your BB/100 should increase as you should get less suckouts as worse hands will be played less against you.
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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IMHO with these numbers it's time to move up if your BR allows it. With the same style play your BB/100 should increase as you should get less suckouts as worse hands will be played less against you.
You mean less variance? I make most of my money at lower limits charging people to draw to gutshots & bad draws. You won't be earning more because there are less suckouts, you'll just experience less variance.

BelgoSuisse, check your PM's.
 
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