I think the issue with betting the river is the overly aggressive villain and the remaining stack sizes. If he CRAI (which he is capable of doing with anything) we have to call. I guess I could be talked into a VB on the river if his WTSD % was high enough that I thought he'd call with a worse hand often enough (say WTSD > 30%). Of course the villains AF strongly argues for a VB if he checks because if he did have the A he's almost always betting the river.
So to sum up, I'm still unsure.
lol, how can you be unsure, his calling range is ssoooo fricken wide and if he shoves were pot commited and have to call anyway but I think that hes shoving jacks aswell as aces and some other random hands. Basically his calling range is soo wide that the -ev (if any) that you incure when he shoves you value bet is outweighed by the +ev of when he calls you v-bet.
So say he shove 30% of the time, 10% are bluffs, 5% are worse hands ie KJ, and the rest 15% beat you actually I think this is still positive ev as you would be getting way better that 1.1:1 pot
odds which is what you need to make calling marginaly profitable based o my assumptions of hand ranges.
Like wise with him calling he will I think roughly 35% which pretty much 30% we are going to beat as most Ace or better hands c/r.
The res the folds and we win anyway.
so I cant think of any play which is -ev except for checking.
Unless someone thinks those ranges are way way off?