protecting big pair against flush

K

kavelot

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Apr 13, 2008
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hi
I often see recomendations to do a pot-size bet when you have a big pair and think you're opponent is flushing (supposing you're playing with just one person)
people usually states that there's a ~33% chance of catching the flush on the turn+river, so pot-size is the right size
but, supposing no one is going all-in or pot commited, in fact there's around 16% chance of getting it on the turn + 16% of getting it on the river
so it seems you should just protect against the turn first (since you'll bet again if it doesn't come)... this makes a little more than half-pot bet reasonable
doesn't it make sense?

of course you'd get more draws doing that, but that's what you want, since they will already be paying a high price to draw that


the only exception I can think is when you're against 2 other people... since the second would have odds to call if the first called... in this case, a 80% pot-size seems nice
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

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hi
I often see recomendations to do a pot-size bet when you have a big pair and think you're opponent is flushing (supposing you're playing with just one person)
people usually states that there's a ~33% chance of catching the flush on the turn+river, so pot-size is the right size
but, supposing no one is going all-in or pot commited, in fact there's around 16% chance of getting it on the turn + 16% of getting it on the river
so it seems you should just protect against the turn first (since you'll bet again if it doesn't come)... this makes a little more than half-pot bet reasonable
doesn't it make sense?

of course you'd get more draws doing that, but that's what you want, since they will already be paying a high price to draw that


the only exception I can think is when you're against 2 other people... since the second would have odds to call if the first called... in this case, a 80% pot-size seems nice
First off, your not only betting to protect your hand as much as you are trying to make villian make a mistake by calling a bet that is against the odds for him to do so just to sweeten the pot.
Second, if you bet 80% pot when there are 2 other players in the hand, your giving the first player the proper odds to call if he's chasing which in turn will give the second player a no-brainer call since the second player will be getting better than 3-1 to make chasing profitable for him/her.
You still have to bet enough to give the first player improper odds because if the player knows how to calculate odds and finds it's not worth it to make the call then the second player will have the same improper odds if the first player folds.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Remember just because a flop has a possible flush draw when your heads-up, by no means assume that your opponent is drawing to it. You can add this to his hand range, dependant on subsequent action, but your usually up against a different hand entirely.

Have a look at some flop textures. IE you have

[Ah] [Ad] on a [Kc] [2c] [10d] board, facing a player that looks like he is drawing.

We have to give out a range of hands that could be calling us, and the most likely in a raised pot being hands like KQ, K10, J10, 1010, 22 even hands like 88+ might be calling us light, then we can throw in our flush draws, just don't let yourself be bluffed out of pots when the board flushes on the turn or river. You'll just get floated lots and bluffed on scare cards
 
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Dr_Dick

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Apr 6, 2008
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Kavelot,

You are totally disregarding implied odds. If I think you are a tight/weak player or if you have nothing left in your stack then you are correct, I'm not calling a 2/3 or 3/4 pot bet with my draw. But, that does not happen very often.

The vast majority of the time I call a less than pot size bet with my draw because:

(1) You could easily just be making a continuation bet on a missed flop and will not fire after the turn. So I am factoring in that roughly 50% of the time after the turn card hits, you check (because you still have nothing or a non-flush scare card comes up) and I get to see the river for free making your less than pot size bet non-effective.

(2) If I do hit my flush, there is a good chance additional money goes into the pot. You will bet to confirm I have the flush or you will call my value bets hoping to improve (remember I don't know you only have an over pair). There are many reasons more money will go in the pot.

Now couple what I have said with that of tenbob. If you take a big pair and every time a scare card hits you refuse to put any money in the pot so you check/fold, then you are losing value when your opponents did not have a draw.

My thoughts, if you have a big pair and there is a flush draw bet a minimum of the pot if not slightly over.
 
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