£10 NLHE6-max: 3bet by nit with QQ, IP

[dj11]

define FOS please.

Posted before the flop.

The dynamics here, IMSO (in my stupid opinion), are that this is a 5 handed game, so thinking 6max, would suggest to me, if I was sitting in the BB that the CO's range was much wider than TT+, and might even include SC's 76s+. Villains 2.5 x(ish) reraise up front looks more like a willingness to play the hand larger than any particular statement of strength.

At a 6max table both of you might be considered a bit nittish. Not severely but a bit. Looks more like you each will give decent respect to the other.

That said, QQ is just a pretty JJ fairly often, and we all have our doubts.

With the stats provided, and the consideration that villain is nittier than we are, I'm for flatting the 4 bet and seeing the flop. Re-evaluate and continue.

I am of the opinion that at this point we are ahead, and if villain had AA, KK, he would have pressed harder pre. Maybe not shoved as he might be seeking value, but a little harder than this. So AK/AQ looms large along with smaller PP's.

 

[WVHillbilly]

One last point before we move on:

Amount in pot = 25BB (our 4bet) + 100B (his jam) + 0.5BB (SB) = 125.05BB
Amount to call = 75BB
Amount you win if you call and you're right = 125.5
Amount you lose if you're wrong = 75BB

Equity to break even = (amount you win)/(amount you win + amount you lose) = 75/(125.5+75) = 75/200.5 = 0.37 = 37%

QQ vs a QQ+/AK range = 40%

So it is +EV to call him off even if we think he only jams QQ+/AK which is as tight as people get at 10NL


Anyway, fun discussion Let's see a flop just cos I like seeing flops, yeah?

Part Deux

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10.05)
BB ($11.60)
UTG ($19.21)
Hero ($12.47)
BTN ($11.15)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ Q♦

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.50

FLOP ($1.65) 6♣ 7♣ 3♥

BB bets $1.23, Hero ???

You're calcs are off a little because his jam is to 116bb not 100 but yeah if it's QQ+/AK we have a +Ev call if we 4bet to $2.50.

 

[dj11]

Posted after the flop

Flush draw and probably nothing too worrisome, but since I put villain thinking we may play SC's to 76s+, then this flop looks like he might be fishing for info with a 75% (ish) pot bet, with his pp's (overpair to the board). I feel if villain had AA, KK here he might approach it smaller. 1/2 pot bet maybe especially if he held a big club.

We hope he didn't hit. But I could shove here to attempt to close this hand down.

 

[baudib1]

fold flop cuz he has KK+ ldo and all we have is a fancy 22.

 

[forsakenone]

One last point before we move on:

Amount in pot = 25BB (our 4bet) + 100B (his jam) + 0.5BB (SB) = 125.05BB
Amount to call = 75BB
Amount you win if you call and you're right = 125.5
Amount you lose if you're wrong = 75BB

Equity to break even = (amount you win)/(amount you win + amount you lose) = 75/(125.5+75) = 75/200.5 = 0.37 = 37%

QQ vs a QQ+/AK range = 40%

So it is +EV to call him off even if we think he only jams QQ+/AK which is as tight as people get at 10NL


Anyway, fun discussion Let's see a flop just cos I like seeing flops, yeah?

Part Deux

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $0.10(BB) Replayer
SB ($10.05)
BB ($11.60)
UTG ($19.21)
Hero ($12.47)
BTN ($11.15)

Dealt to Hero Q♠ Q♦

fold, Hero raises to $0.30, fold, fold, BB raises to $0.80, Hero calls $0.50

FLOP ($1.65) 6♣ 7♣ 3♥

BB bets $1.23, Hero ???

exactly the kind of flop i imagined, and he did exactly what i would do, his range remains the same, still, no idea what to do, plus now you can add AKc, pocket 6s pocket 7s because, as i stated he might be in for a resteal, therefor doing it with a small pocket pair. I guess now you have to shove, still putting my money on AK from the villain, maybe AK of clubs. Looking forward to other opinions.

 

[WVHillbilly]

exactly the kind of flop i imagined, and he did exactly what i would do, his range remains the same, still, no idea what to do, plus now can add AKc, pocket 6s pocket 7s because, as i stated he might be in for a resteal, therefor doing it with a small pocket pair. I guess now you have to shove, still putting my money on AK from the villain, maybe AK of clubs. Looking forward to other opinions.

Have we all suddenly forgotten that his 3bet range didn't change just because we saw a flop? I mean earlier people were saying that his 3bet range was super narrow and now we have small pairs and sc in it???

Let's give him a fairly realistic blind vs btn 3bet range for an overall fairly tight 3better of say 5%. I'll use 77+/AQs+/AK as my 5% range. On this flop we have ~60% equity against that range. He has exactly 3 combos of sets (77) and 2 combos of FDs (AK and AQ cc) and the same 24 combos of overpairs that he had preflop.

 

[Pascal-lf]

Have we all suddenly forgotten that his 3bet range didn't change just because we saw a flop? I mean earlier people were saying that his 3bet range was super narrow and now we have small pairs and sc in it???

Exactly. Indeed, the flop makes it less likely he has 66/77 as opposed to more likely due to card removal.

We have three options here - call, raise or fold.

Would be interested for people to post an order in which they think is best (e.g. fold > raise > call) and some reasoning

 

[WVHillbilly]

I really really think you have to raise now. This is such a great flop for you against his range because he's probably going to be willing to stack 88-JJ that we beat. So I think he stacks with 48 pair combos that we crush, 24 pair + 3 set combos that crush us, and 2 FD combos we're flipping with. In other words we're WAY ahead of his stacking range. Failing to raise now is a major mistake imo.

 

[forsakenone]

Have we all suddenly forgotten that his 3bet range didn't change just because we saw a flop? I mean earlier people were saying that his 3bet range was super narrow and now we have small pairs and sc in it???

I never stated his 3bet range is supper narrow, i said he could be in for a resteal about 1 million times. No idea why you quote me on this.

anyway, the way it played i am going for reraise better than calling better than folding.

 

[Pascal-lf]

I really really think you have to raise now. This is such a great flop for you against his range because he's probably going to be willing to stack 88-JJ that we beat. So I think he stacks with 48 pair combos that we crush, 24 pair + 3 set combos that crush us, and 2 FD combos we're flipping with. In other words we're WAY ahead of his stacking range. Failing to raise now is a major mistake imo.

If we flat, do you reckon he bets the turn with TT/JJ if a scare card comes (club/overcard) or if a scare card does not come?

 

[WVHillbilly]

Ok so calculating 2.6% of his 3bet preflop would show these hands: AA, KK, AKs, QQ, JJ and TT.

I never stated his 3bet range is supper narrow, i said he could be in for a resteal about 1 million times. No idea why you quote me on this.

anyway, the way it played i am going for reraise better than calling better than folding.

Way back at the top you gave him this super narrow range. Later you did mention 66+ so whatever I basically just quoted you because you were the last to post before I replied.

 

[WVHillbilly]

If we flat, do you reckon he bets the turn with TT/JJ if a scare card comes (club/overcard) or if a scare card does not come?

It doesn't matter because he's not folding those hands right now to a raise. Flatting here is really, really bad.