number crunching?

[BowlingForYou]

Hey everyone, my first post, so sorry for anything unusual. I was recently in a NL Hold em tourney and got caught up the following hand.

Blinds 1/2 K

Me in BB With 25k
Player A (Very Tight Player) with 22K
Player B (Loose, just had rough beat) with 9K

Still 10 handed, 55 people left, pays 40.

Delt 7s8s in BB

Foldes around to player A, who doubles the blind. Player B in SB simply calls, and I call.

Flop
6s9skd

Sb checks, I bet 4k (Probably the wrong play there, thoughts here?), and Player A goes all in. Player B calls instantly. Whats the play here? By the way he had been playing, i am almost 95% positive he has AK, AA, KK, or QQ .. So I know I am way behind. Do I call? I know if I hit the draw, I will be in great position in the tourney, and be able to not only cash, but probably finish very well. And after puting in approx 1/3 of my chips in the middle, is a call worth it? Any and all help would be appreciated.

*Note: I ended up folding, Player A has AK, Player B with !0-9 loses. No spade or straight cards came. Ended up placing 22nd*

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Well assuming all your outs are good, you have 14 total outs (8 to the flush, 8 to the straight, -2 because of straight flush possibility), and a 0.29 chance of hitting any of those on either the turn or the river if you consider every possible remaining card which roughly equates to (0.29*0.71)*2+(0.29)^2 = 0.4959 (this isn't exact, just a simple estimate - I don't have a scientific calculator to hand and it's late over here ). Pot is 51k total if you call (couple of k more if there are antes, doesn't make the world of difference here), 16k more for you to call, so you need a 0.31 chance of hitting on the turn or the river for calling to be statistically correct.

However, this is assuming all your outs are good, which in this case may well be not true, the other players (Player A more likely, Player B is probably tilting, definitely pot committed and could have almost anything) could easily be holding something like AK/KQ of spades, eliminating almost half your outs and making your odds to call much worse.

There are a couple of other factors to count in such as the possibility of runner-runner spades counterfeiting your flush or fluke two-pair outs for you etc. etc. but they have only a tiny effect on the odds anyway.

I call anyway here, given the probable odds and the money I already have in the middle.

About the 4k bet, if you weren't willing to call a push, which is player A's probable action given the range of hands you put him on, you shouldn't have bet that. I probably push myself here and beat him to it, hoping to throw him off AQ/QQ/JJ, but knowing I have a strong draw if he does call.

 

[xdmanx007]

Actually not badly played. I quite often make small stabs at pots with a draw, player came over the top got called and you folded sounds about right Good Job!

 

[chicubs1616]

Your bet on the flop is fine, if player a pushes, you fold, if he folds and B pushes you call.


You made a good fold.

 

[bradf024]

good fold there , betting on the flop in that situation is questionable testing the waters can get you into trouble. with one player behind you and you want to see a free card anyway because you cant think your hand was the best. good play on the fold though dont dig your hole deeper!

 

[bubbasbestbabe]

Right move on the fold but I would've limped in with the spades. If you are looking to steal blinds do either with better down cards or you in different position.

 

[KK_Cowboy]

In this case

Well I dunno, I mean as it turns out you did make a good fold because you wouldn't have hit. 18000 is a lot to call given how many chips you have. But I would look at it this way, you knew player B was tiliting so not likely worried abotut them. Player A was tight and could easily have trip kings, aces, or Ak as it turns out they did have. Even if player A did have trip kings there, most of your outs would have been intact. I really don't see either way here as a wrong play, what I see is the safe play and the risky play. I coudln't say you did bad either way here.

P.S. A risky play was earlier when I bet 1.1 million on a pair of 4's lol. I was ahead before the flop and lost, but now that is RISK .

 

[robwhufc]

Personally I would have checked rather than bet 4K - you yourself said you knew he was a tight player so would likely have a good hand. If that was the case, he would have bet big to avoid a flush draw (which is what you were on!) and you would have likely folded. If he didn't raise, you would get an extra card which may or may not have helped. In hindsight, you read the table well, but just gave him 4,000 extra chips by betting. You said yourself you probably made the wrong choice, and I agree in this case.



Welcome to site!

 

[titans4ever]

I like the bet post flop. I like to bet out on flush or open ended straight draws to hide my hand. Unfortunately some just pushed all in after you.

You would have completely crippled yourself if you did not hit the draw (about 3k in chips left. 2k after the next hand and payed your SB. You would have one round at the table to double up and you would not have enough to scare anyone off when you did play.

By folding you left yourself 17k and enough to hang into the money, which you did.

The odds nobody talks about here is the overall implied odds for the prize money. There are times when the pot odds justifies a call but in the overall tournament picture it is in your best interest to fold. If you lost that hand your odds of making it into the money drops greatly. If this was a ring game and you could pull out more money sure do it, you still needed 15 people to leave before you get paid. I may have made the call if I was already in the money.