nl10 flop top 2

N

njpokerhoney

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 17, 2007
Total posts
149
only have 60 hands on villian, who is 38/7/1.4

any input appreciated

full tilt poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $19.95
CO: $9.85
BTN: $40.35
SB: $13.30
BB: $19.55
UTG: $18.40
UTG+1: $15.35

Pre-Flop: K
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Q
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dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, CO folds, BTN calls $0.35, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.75) 8
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K
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Q
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(5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.45, BTN calls $1.45, SB calls $1.45, BB folds, UTG calls $1.45

Turn: ($7.55) 2
clubnormal.gif
(4 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

River: ($15.55) 9
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $4, BTN raises to $27.55, Hero ?
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
without reads/stats it's a fold for me here. If he hasn't been slow playing a set, which is probably doubtful now as the 9 completes a str8 for someone holding JT. JT will definately be in his range here and what villain does this on the river who doesn't have the nuts. Unless you have any reads on him or stats to suggest your up against a maniac, I can't see anything other than a fold.

Fwiw I probably push the turn, lots of draws out there, maybe we can get him to fold and if not then were still a favourite if he calls and he's drawing.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
Duh, just saw villains stats, calling station muppet, not very aggro, fold for me.
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Total posts
4,596
Agree, that looks like a fold... he just isn't aggro enough to be betting a busted flush draw (unless you have some river aggression stats that indicate otherwise).
How about a check, call a more reasonable bet on river?
 
J

joeydy123

Guest
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
11
I don't see that a fold here is so obvious.
At this stage, you have invested half your stack, so the villian is effectively raising you the approx $10 you have left and the pot is giving you 3:1 odds to call.

Sure, the chances are you are beaten, but you only need to win 25% of the time to break even.
IMHO, you are up against lower 2 pair/pair of kings/busted flush draw enough times in this scenario to make a profit in the long run
 
aliengenius

aliengenius

Cardschat Elite
Joined
Jul 7, 2006
Total posts
4,596
villian, who is 38/7/1.4 = not betting busted draw
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
Joined
Jul 12, 2005
Total posts
12,422
I dunno, though the stats show villain is pretty wtfpassive, our $4 river lead looks weak and might entice villain into shoving with some hands he wouldn't normally shove with.

On the other hand, we have so much invested already, does villain really think his shove is going to make us fold anything but a total bluff here?

Perhaps I'm giving villain too much credit and he just had JT all along, called with his draw all along and shoved when he hit - it's certainly the most likely individual scenario. I think it's a somewhat marginal decision, but I veer towards folding here.
 
J

joeydy123

Guest
Joined
Feb 19, 2008
Total posts
11
We are only looking at 60 hands worth of stats here, so while I would take them into account, I wouldn't rely on them too much.

I'm do agree that we are probably beaten here given the info available, but I'm just not sure that we're more than a 3:1 dog against his potential range of hands
 
N

njpokerhoney

Rock Star
Joined
Aug 17, 2007
Total posts
149
Full Tilt Poker, $0.05/$0.10 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 7 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

Hero (MP): $19.95
CO: $9.85
BTN: $40.35
SB: $13.30
BB: $19.55
UTG: $18.40
UTG+1: $15.35

Pre-Flop: K
spadenormal.gif
Q
diamondnormal.gif
dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG calls $0.10, UTG+1 folds, Hero raises to $0.35, CO folds, BTN calls $0.35, SB calls $0.30, BB calls $0.25, UTG calls $0.25

Flop: ($1.75) 8
diamondnormal.gif
K
diamondnormal.gif
Q
spadenormal.gif
(5 Players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $1.45, BTN calls $1.45, SB calls $1.45, BB folds, UTG calls $1.45

Turn: ($7.55) 2
clubnormal.gif
(4 Players)
SB checks, UTG checks, Hero bets $4, BTN calls $4, 2 folds

River: ($15.55) 9
spadenormal.gif
(2 Players)
Hero bets $4, BTN raises to $27.55, Hero calls $10.15 and is All-In

Results: $43.85 Pot ($2 Rake)
Hero mucked K
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Q
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(two pair, Kings and Queens) and LOST (-$19.95 NET)

BTN showed T
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J
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(a straight, King high) and WON $41.85 (+$21.90 NET)







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F

fellowswheel

Guest
Joined
Feb 17, 2008
Total posts
20
If I had to guess btn had 99 and scared of overcards so waited till river to bet. How fast or slowly they called would help. Number of seconds compared to average time it takes them to act.

Though could also have pocket 9's and rivered a set. Up till river calling, either slow playing or on a draw. A set of nines at least to me is not a good enough hand to make that bet, though I have seen people push it all in pf with 9s and the whole table still left to act.
 
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