nl$50 FR, KQs OOP vs forum member.

tenbob

tenbob

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Stats dont really matter at this stage, but both of us have been playing TAG, and havnt really stepped out of line much prior to this hand. What do we make of this turn raise ? I was trying to telegraph a weak line, Irexes is very capable of doing this with air as well though, and same with a hand that has me beat.

Irexes says:
I'm capable of juggling three balls and riding a unicycle as well fwiw

pokerstars Game #16533105640: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/04/06 - 14:46:33 (ET)
Table 'Sargas III' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Red-K-16 ($52.30 in chips)
Seat 2: Irexes ($55.60 in chips)
Seat 3: bel canada ($27.45 in chips)
Seat 4: rinus_p ($18.25 in chips)
Seat 5: 123nico321 ($8.50 in chips)
Seat 6: tenbob ($67.50 in chips)
Seat 7: Augea ($10 in chips)
Seat 8: Laggens ($24.85 in chips)
Seat 9: coach_lowe ($52.20 in chips)
tenbob: posts small blind $0.25
Augea: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to tenbob [Kd Qd]
Laggens: folds
coach_lowe: folds
Red-K-16: folds
Irexes: raises $1 to $1.50
bel canada: folds
rinus_p: folds
rinus_p leaves the table
123nico321: folds
tenbob: calls $1.25
Augea: folds
*** FLOP *** [5h Qc 9s]
Sontor joins the table at seat #4
tenbob: bets $2.50
Irexes: calls $2.50
*** TURN *** [5h Qc 9s] [Qs]
tenbob: bets $4
Irexes: raises $7 to $11
tenbob: ???
 
dj11

dj11

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You're stuck dude! Rock and a hard place.

Without consulting my very meager stats on Rex, it seems you have to put him on something large here. More inclined to think he's sitting on 99 than 55 because of his up front raise. AQ is possible as well. You could be in serious hurt with those especially if the AQ were spades. His air could be spade air.

Raise it to $30, and fold if he 4 bets? Call cause you got outs, as well as a good likelihood your ahead here?

This has passed the stage where hand odds, or pot odds play, its into the psychological part of the game. IMO!

I should add that it has been situations very similar to this that have cost me the most in ring action.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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By pure frequency I think this is a bluff more often than a slowplayed monster. Another queen is also possible, but I would think he would raise the flop with it, though a call isn't out of the question. A semibluffing FD is also a possibility. So basically bluffs/queens/sets+/semi-strong draws. We're way ahead of that range.

So now the issue is whether or not to 3-bet the turn here or wait until the river. We can't fold obv.

Against the bluffs we want to call and let him fire another barrel.

Against the queens we'd rather get it in now since we're only really behind AQ and don't want him to either outdraw, outdraw for the chop or see some action-killing card that will cost us some value.

Against the sets we want to fold. I guess an argument could be made for calling to fill up, but he's not giving us IO that way, plus we're drawing relatively thin.

Against the FDs we want to get it in now obviously as he won't put in action without bluffing the river with a busted draw or with the made flush.

Hmm, close. I'm WAY too lazy to run combinations/permutations/whatever to figure out which of those hand groups make up what % of his total range, but I think we're looking at bluffs most of the time which leads me to want to call and let him bluff the river...
 
dj11

dj11

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If it were not Rex, and you had few if any stats on villain, would you approach this hand a whole lot different? From my experiences with forum players I think I call here.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Yep this is close for me, call or 3 bet. I think I take the agrresive line here more often than not, especially as the board is drawy. If he's drawing we have to make him pay. If he has AQ, 55, 99 then were probably gonna pay him off to a decent sized river bet anyways if it's a blank, so lets get it in now.
 
zachvac

zachvac

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Remember the two 9s you hid up your sleeve? Yep now's the time to make the switch :).

But in all seriousness I'm not sure we can get away from this. I'd be inclined to flat call this because it allows us to get paid from another bluff as well as control pot size when he has a boat/AQ. Of course we're letting him draw to the flush if he has it, but I like the call here and check-call a reasonable river bet.
 
Irexes

Irexes

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This hand was 29th level thinking imo.
 
jewboy07

jewboy07

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If it were not Rex, and you had few if any stats on villain, would you approach this hand a whole lot different? From my experiences with forum players I think I call here.

this is important i think
if this was a random hand i don't think there would be a second thought to this hand and you would get it in right here

if it weren't Rex you could expect things like QJ or worse

so me i move all in and get sick when i see 99's
 
tenbob

tenbob

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I called the turn and checked to rex on the river hopeing to induce a bluff.

He checks behind for a missed AK.
 
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