F Paulsson
euro love
Silver Level
The post you're quoting was targetted at Chuck to explain what I was getting at.
Villain probably should shove the river all the time, but if we can trust that he only shoves with hands better than ours, then we should of course call the turn if we have sufficient pot odds then. That said...
... I screwed up the EV calculation. The EV is actually ~$13, not $25, and that means villain only needs to bluff 1/8th of the times on the river, not 1/4th of the times. I still think this - calling turn, c/f river - has merit against villains who are very careful on the river, but my argument is seriously reduced by the optimum bluffing frequency.
Anyway, I realized my mistake on Friday as we were driving towards the airport, and I've been waiting all weekend to make a correction, so there!