Low set, deep stacked

[Bombjack]

Villain is fairly tight for a short-handed game (23/8).

Seat 3: Multum x ($31.15 in chips)
Seat 5: monnet1 ($72.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Bombjack_x [4♣,4♠] ($94.15 in chips)
Seat 8: le joshua ($10.10 in chips)
Seat 10: Rialein ($55.25 in chips)
ANTES/BLINDS
Rialein posts blind ($0.25), Multum x posts blind ($0.50).

PRE-FLOP
monnet1 bets $2, Bombjack_x calls $2, le joshua calls $2, Rialein folds, Multum x folds.

Standard pre-flop call in position, hoping for a set.

FLOP [board cards 4♦,8♥,3♥ ]
monnet1 bets $3.50, Bombjack_x calls $3.50, le joshua folds.

Wheeee! The board's only drawey for for low cards - gutshots for fives or sixes, or two hearts. I'd put the raiser on a high pair so no risk there. There's only one player left to act, so I decide not to reveal the strength of my hand yet by raising. Maybe a mistake, but I'm

TURN [board cards 4♦,8♥,3♥,A♣ ]
monnet1 bets $8, Bombjack_x bets $20, monnet1 bets $58.60 and is all-in, Bombjack_x ... sees it's $40 to call and hates life

NOT a card I wanted to see. If Villain has AA I'm toast, and if she has KK-QQ I won't get any action. Does Villain go all-in here with anything other than AA, and if so, is it worth a call?

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

You will see AK-AQ (AhKh/AhQh seem especially plausible here) so often here you absolutely have to call. I don't see how you can 'put the raiser on a high pair' just on the basis of a preflop raise and continuation bet on a ragged board.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

um, raise flop, try to get it all in there.

 

[blankoblanco]

You will see AK-AQ (AhKh/AhQh seem especially plausible here) so often here you absolutely have to call. I don't see how you can 'put the raiser on a high pair' just on the basis of a preflop raise and continuation bet on a ragged board.

Yeah, my initial thoughts were that AhKh or AhQh are a more likely holding than AA (simply based on the fact that there are more ways to get dealt AK or AQ and there's an A on the board, and because tons of players would play those hands the way villain has). AA is definitely something to be afraid, but since AK could fit the hand and based purely on odds AK is a more likely hand to be dealt, I have to call here.

 

[myxiplx]

Could also easily be looking at a suited Ax giving them top pair with the nut flush draw or 2-pair. Call and cross your fingers

 

[myxiplx]

PS. You say A is not a card you wanted to see, I'd argue the opposite. It's precisely the card that's going to get your set paid off big more often than not.

 

[t1riel]

I would have reraised on the flop. He made about a pot sized bet which means that he hit nothing (except maybe draws) and it's a continuation bet. The two hearts on the board should scare you a little which is another reason to reraise. He could easily have AK or AQ suited hearts.

 

[Bombjack]

AK or AQ of hearts are possible but unlikely. They certainly fit the betting pattern - a flop bet of half pot rather than pot is more likely I think with these holdings, as you want to keep any other drawers in, but AK suited - let alone in one particular suit - is less likely to be dealt than AA.

There's 1 way of making Ah Kh, 1 way of making Ah Qh, and 6 ways of making AA, 6 of KK, 6 of QQ, 6 of JJ, and about a zillion of any other AK or AQ. So I'm very un-worried that the raiser is on a flush draw. Plus, he has to hit it, in which case I could slow down a bit, and usually someone with a flush will make it pretty obvious.

 

[shinedown.45]

I would have to say she holds A-K, A-Qhearts and strongly believe a call here will pay you off nicely.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

AK or AQ of hearts are possible but unlikely. They certainly fit the betting pattern - a flop bet of half pot rather than pot is more likely I think with these holdings, as you want to keep any other drawers in, but AK suited - let alone in one particular suit - is less likely to be dealt than AA.

There's 1 way of making Ah Kh, 1 way of making Ah Qh, and 6 ways of making AA, 6 of KK, 6 of QQ, 6 of JJ

3 ways of making AA in this example seeing as the turn is an A, only one more way than AhKh/AhQh. I don't see how you can be overly paranoid about AA and almost completely discount AhKh/AhQh.

I really don't think KK-JJ plays the turn as villain played. I think even something like a ragged Ace giving villain 2-pair is more likely than KK-JJ here.

 

[Bombjack]

Was talking really about the decision not to raise on the flop - at that point it's 6 times more likely Villain has AA rather than Ah Kh. When the Ace comes on the turn it's only 3 times more likely. If you include AhQh and AhJh it's evens... so if you're looking at the turn decision it is more likely I suppose that Villain has a heart-suited Ace than AA. She could still bet here with KK but the push then wouldn't make sense.

Of course the flop bet could just be a continuation bet, in which case AK random suits is more likely than AA or and AhXh on the Turn.

Evaluating the likelihood of AK versus AA on the turn depends really on a read of whether the raiser will put in a continuation bet when she misses with AK. A lot of players won't bet into multiple opponents when they miss. It would have helped if I'd raised on the flop.

I seem to almost have talked myself into calling....

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Evaluating the likelihood of AK versus AA on the turn depends really on a read of whether the raiser will put in a continuation bet when she misses with AK. A lot of players won't bet into multiple opponents when they miss. It would have helped if I'd raised on the flop.

I bet this flop a lot of the time with AK OOP into 2 preflop callers. It's a ragged flop, and your opponents are more likely to be sitting with two high unpaired cards than anything else.

AK can fold easily to any flop raise, and if called can re-evaluate on the turn (if called in two spots it's a routine check-fold, if called in one it's largely read and turn card dependent).

If you really believe by the time villain has led at the flop that there is a significant chance he has AA (or 'a high pair'), why are you not raising the flop? He's not going to be going anywhere with an overpair on a flop like that if you do raise - he will put you on a flush draw, something that hit the flop marginally like A8/A4, a set, or perhaps a total bluff back at his c-bet. Yeah a set is in the range he will give you, but it's a very small portion of that range.

As played I still maintain that it's a pretty easy call. You play these low pocket pairs to hit sets and hopefully get involved in a big pot - if you're seriously considering folding here you may as well just fold it preflop. You have a big hand and should be delighted at the chance to play a huge pot with it on a board as not-scary as this one (I completely agree with myx when he says the A is a card you want to see here as it will make you profit against villain's range in the long run) - there are only two feasible hands you're trailing and many more you're way ahead of - if villain has AA or 88 then all the best to him but no way can I fold here without a 'biggest nit in the universe' read on him, and 23/8 is not indicative of the biggest nit in the universe.

I'm guessing you folded by the tone of your posts. If so, WEAK-TIGHT (and that really means something coming from me!)

 

[robwhufc]

PS. You say A is not a card you wanted to see, I'd argue the opposite. It's precisely the card that's going to get your set paid off big more often than not.

Just about to type the same thing almost word for word. He's hit top pair big kicker or 2 pair. You didn't really fold did you?

 

[Bombjack]

No I didn't fold. Wish I had though.

TURN [board cards 4♦,8♥,3♥,A♣ ]
monnet1 bets $8, Bombjack_x bets $20, monnet1 bets $58.60 and is all-in, Bombjack_x calls $46.60.

RIVER [board cards 4♦,8♥,3♥,A♣,10♥ ]

SHOWDOWN
monnet1 shows [ A♦,A♥ ]
Bombjack_x shows [ 4♣,4♠ ]
monnet1 wins $145.95.

SUMMARY
Dealer: le joshua
Pot: $146.95, (including rake: $1)
Multum x loses $0.50
monnet1 bets $72.10, collects $145.95, net $73.85
Bombjack_x loses $72.10
le joshua loses $2
Rialein loses $0.25

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

It happens.

I think yer being a tad results-oriented when you said 'I put him on a high pair' on the flop, because if you really did you're surely raising.

 

[Beriac]

I think you played it fine. Barring some pretty specific reads, I think that's probably my play there also. We can all be results oriented after a big hit like that, but I honestly think it's -EV in the long run to give villain that much credit for a better hand.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

this is why u raise flop and get it in there. so when he sucks out, at least you can say u got the $ in as a monster favorite!

 

[myxiplx]

Yup, sucks to get caught out like that, and in the situation very hard to put your opponent on trip A's.

The key for me was your raise on the turn. The aim is to get weaker hands to commit money into the pot. Unfortunately in this case it opened the door for trip A's to push and be fairly confident of a call.

However, keep in mind that situation will be a very rare occurance. The real question is this: Would this player have called that raise with the hands you had beat?

I'm no good at ev calculations, can anybody do the math here?
- JJ, QQ, KK would almost certainly fold here
- If your opponent has AT+ I think they could well fold to this raise.
- Flush draws may be scared off, or may gamble
- Two pair is going to call
- trips are obviously going to call

I think that raise may loose you value on the hands you beat, (but against an aggressive opponent it could just as easily make you a fortune).

Can someone more experienced comment on this please.

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Well we need to assign probabilities to the possible outcomes.

- JJ, QQ, KK would almost certainly fold here <-- 10%, assume 100% fold (incorrect but for simplicity's sake)
- If your opponent has AT+ I think they could well fold to this raise. <-- 50%, assume 75% folds, 25% you get all-in.
- Flush draws may be scared off, or may gamble <-- 20%, assume 50% push, 50% fold.
- Two pair is going to call <-- 10%, 100% allin
- trips are obviously going to call <-- 10%, 100% allin (discount 33 for simplicity).

Allin and win – we win net $74.85
Allin and lose – we lose net $72.10
Villain folds – we win net $15.50

EV(Villain has KK-JJ) = +$15.50 @ 10%
EV(Villain has AT+) = ($15.50*0.75)+($74.85*0.25) = +$30.34 @ 50%
EV(Villain has flushdraw) = ($15.50*0.5)+0.5*(($74.85*0.65)+(-$72.10*0.35))
= +$19.45 @ 20%
EV(Villain has twopair) = ($74.85*0.9)+(-$72.10*0.1) = +$60.17 @ 10% (I'm at work so no PStove but I'm guessing we're ~90% to win against A8/A4/A3 with one card to come)
EV(Villain has AA/88) = ($74.85*0.05)+(-$72.10*0.95) = -$64.76 @ 10%

EV(Range) = ($15.50*0.1)+($30.34*0.5)+($19.45*0.2)+($60.17*0.1)+(-$64.76*0.1)
= 1.5 + 15.17 + 3.89 + 6.01 – 6.48
= +$20.09

Even if we tweak the numbers hugely and say 30% villain has AT+ and 30% he has AA/88 (which is just not feasible imo), we get:

EV(Range) = ($15.10*0.1)+($30.34*0.3)+($19.45*0.2)+($60.17*0.1)+(-$64.76*0.3)
= 1.5 + 9.1 + 3.89 + 6.01 – 19.42
= +$1.08

...and remember we're also discounting (the admittedly small possibility that) 33 and any possibility KK-JJ will call or push. We're also discounting the probability that villain will just call the turn bet (although he is almost certainly committed then to call a river poosh anyway), so the calculation is flawed but reasonably accurate.

 

[myxiplx]

Aaah, but what I'm getting at is this: is your EV better pushing here, or just calling?

If we just call, for simplicity's sake we can expect villain to either check/fold river or continue their betting (around $14). I'm going to attempt to work this out by bodging the numbers into Dorkus' explanation:

- JJ, QQ, KK would almost certainly check <-- 10%, assume 75% fold, 25% bet
- If your opponent has AT+ I think they will be betting. <-- 50%, assume 75% bet, 25% check/fold
- Flush draws will probably check/fold<-- 20%, assume 90% fold, 10% bluff.
- Two pair will bet <-- 10%, 100% bet
- trips are going to bet <-- 10%, 100% (again discounting 33 for simplicity)

win – we win net $29.50
lose – we lose net $29.50
Villain folds – we win net $15.50

- JJ, QQ, KK would almost certainly check <-- 10%, assume 75% fold, 25% bet
- If your opponent has AT+ I think they will be betting. <-- 50%, assume 75% bet, 25% check/fold
- Flush draws will probably check/fold<-- 20%, assume 90% fold, 10% bluff.
- Two pair will bet <-- 10%, 100% bet
- trips are going to bet <-- 10%, 100% (again discounting 33 for simplicity)
win – we win net $29.50
lose – we lose net $29.50
Villain folds – we win net $15.50
EV(villain has KK-JJ) = ($15.50*0.75) + ($29.50*0.25) = $19 @ 10%
EV(villain has AT+) = ($29.50*0.75) + ($15.50*0.25) = $26 @ 50%
EV(villain has flushdraw) = ($15.50*0.9) + ($29.50*0.1) = $16.9 @ 10%
EV(villain has twopair) = $29.50 @ 10%
EV(villain has AA/88) = -$29.50 @ 10%

Total EV = $18.28

Again, using the tweaked numbers to make it 30% they have AA/88,

EV becomes = $7.18

Our EV is down around $1.70 in the best case scenario, but up $6 in the (admittedly unlikely) worst case.

When pushing risks so much for so little gain, are there grounds for simply calling in this situation?

Myx

 

[Dorkus Malorkus]

Without being bothered to actually work it out, in the situation you describe I don't think there's a great difference. Pushing now merely ensures you get chips in while 'good' against the range. You might lose some EV from cases in which naked flush draws miss and check/fold the river where they would have called a turn push, you might gain some EV if a moderate Ace or KK-JJ lead where they may have folded to a turn push. Neither scenario is particularly likely, in any case it probably balances out, and all you are doing by calling the turn is pretty much committing yourself to the pot considering the hand you have and risking either getting money in 'bad' after a river card hits your opponent, or horribly second-guessing yourself if a scare card does hit (let's face it, if Bombjack isn't sure his hand is good on the turn, something like the Kh or 2h is gonna absolutely terrify him on the river when in fact he would still be pretty easily getting odds to call a push against villain's range ).