Leading the Nuts Heads Up?

[mischman]

He seems to be making...loose calls i guess. He doesnt make stupid calls but will call semi big bets with marginal hands. This isnt the 1st hand i think its like the 5th. You make a small semi bluff to pick up the pot and then turn the nuts. He checks the turn to you, do you lead out or check it? You were bluffing and hit the nuts.

pokerstars Game #, $6.00+$0.25 Hold'em No Limit - Match Round I, Level I (10/20) - 2006/10/14 - 23:25:24 (ET)
Table '33735439 1' 2-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: ssun (1500 in chips)
Seat 2: mischman (1500 in chips)
mischman: posts small blind 10
ssun: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to mischman [Tc Js]
mischman: calls 10
ssun: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kd 2s 9s]
ssun: checks
mischman: bets 60
ssun: calls 60
*** TURN *** [Kd 2s 9s] [Qc]
ssun: checks
mischman:?????????

 

[Schatzdog]

I'd bet out about 2/3rds to pot sized. You may have the nuts now but he could be holding two spades. Get some cash in the middle now and protect.

 

[Four Dogs]

Don't check. This is a dangerous board. He may have something, but since he didn't raise you there's a good chance he doesn't have top. He may have middle or bottom pair or a draw, but In either case there's probably not much to win here but you could be in trouble if a scare card comes on the river. Since your first to act in may not even matter if it's the card he's looking for. This is one of those cases where I recommend a larger than normal sized bet to see where you stand- the pot or bigger. If he's on a draw, he'll have to fold. If he's paired, he may still call. If he calls then you can check the river and HOPE to induce a bluff. Don't believe it. Otherwise, the best he'll call is a suck bet.

 

[Bombjack]

I'd tend to disagree Four Dogs. The only way that this board is dangerous is if a spade comes on the river AND your heads-up opponent holds 2 spades. (In any hand, 90% of the time there will be two card of the same suit on the board by the turn.) The chances of the former are 20% and the latter (given the former) are 1 in 20 - i.e. about it's about 4% you'll get beaten by a flush if you check here. The only other way you can be beaten is if he's slow-playing a set (unlikely since no pre-flop raise - mandatory pretty much with a pair heads-up) AND the board pairs on the river. Minimal risk of that. You could also get counterfeited and split if he has a Jack or Ten and the other one comes on the river... that's 3 outs (6%) * the chances of him holding one of those 6 cards, i.e. not very much. So overall the board's not dangerous at all.

The reason you bet though, is because he doesn't know you have the nuts. You could have bottom / middle pair, or be bluffing for all he knows. He's checked, so he's probably not very strong, so you need to sell your hand, i.e. bet an amount you think he'll call. Try around half the pot.

 

[Bombjack]

The chances of the former are 20% and the latter (given the former) are 1 in 20 - i.e. about it's about 4% you'll get beaten by a flush if you check here.

Oops messed up my sums - make that 20% * 1/20 = 1% you'll lose to a flush! Even safer board.

Also forgot to mention that you could lose to a higher straight if your opponent holds AJ or AT and hits a gutshot, but you can pretty much discount this possibility since it wasn't raised pre-flop.

 

[Four Dogs]

I'd tend to disagree Four Dogs. The only way that this board is dangerous is if a spade comes on the river AND your heads-up opponent holds 2 spades.

I think your missing the nut str8 draw Bombjack. There's just too much going on here to get cute. Bet strong and now.

 

[Bombjack]

I think your missing the nut str8 draw Bombjack. There's just too much going on here to get cute. Bet strong and now.

Also forgot to mention that you could lose to a higher straight if your opponent holds AJ or AT and hits a gutshot, but you can pretty much discount this possibility since it wasn't raised pre-flop.

They'd have to be holding exactly AT or AJ for this to even be a possibility. Chances of that are small (4/47*6/46 + 6/47*4/46 = 1.9%... plus fact it wasn't raised pre-flop, so let's call it <1%), and they also need to hit one of their 3 outs (6%)... so it about 0.06% you'll lose to a higher straight.

I'd say you can be 98% sure you're not going to lose this hand.

 

[blankoblanco]

Going by pure mathematics, Bombjack, I'm sure you're right. However, the fact that opponent has check-called and checked again seems to make the possibility that he has 2 spades more likely than it would be by pure chance, since there are a number of other no-draw no-nothing hands that he likely would have already folded to the bet of 60.

 

[Bombjack]

You're right combuboom, that the odds your opponent holds 2 spades is a bit more than 5% given the action so far, although the betting patterns also fit someone who's caught middle or bottom pair and is playing it cautiously. So long as you bet more than a quarter of the pot on the turn, and don't pay off a bet if another spade comes on the river, you're not giving them the right odds to call. But in general I pay off flushes heads-up unless there are four of one suit on the board, because you're losing out the 95% of the time your opponent doesn't have a flush, when there's a 3-flush on the board. You can be sure your opponent will make it pretty obvious with his betting if he does make a flush on the river.

 

[Four Dogs]

I'd say you can be 98% sure you're not going to lose this hand.

Let me get this straight. There's a possible flush draw on the board and a nut straight draw, the opponent has already called an over pot sized bet on the flop and you think mishman is a 98% favorite? What book did get that from?

 

[Bombjack]

Just because there are two of one suit on the board on the turn (as there will be 90% of the time) doesn't mean you should automatically assume you're going to be beaten by a flush. Likewise for the gutshot to a better straight. It's far more likely if you're in a big multi-way pot that someone will have these draws. I've put some numbers on the likelihood of these results - i.e. 1% for the flush, 0.06% for the straight, so it's more like 99%. You could adjust the 1% figure up a bit as combuboom points out because many of the hands which aren't flush draws will be dumped on the flop, although this is probably balanced out by the fact that any hand containing middle / bottom pair cannot also be a flush draw.

Just get these risks into perspective, that's all I'm saying.

 

[Four Dogs]

OK. 99%......Bombjack. Your insane!

 

[mischman]

He had J10o. We both turned the nuts.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

you have to bet here if you want to play a big pot, gotta get some money in the middle before the river, i'm betting pot and probably shoving most rivers.