Did i calculate right?

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Takeem26

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Ive never been very good at working out pot odds but could someone confirm that i have got this one right? I didnt work it out exactly at the time but it guestimated that i was right to call the raise on the flop, i called the raise pre flop becauses one 67s is one of my fav hands, and i was already priced in when the raise to 22 came
Here it is (from party poker):

#Game No : 5848723011
***** Hand History for Game 5848723011 *****
$ 400 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Friday, April 06, 21:54:02 ET 2007
Table Table 125519 (real money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: Catosi ( $ 443.63 USD )
Seat 2: kcharles ( $ 480.30 USD )
Seat 3: wannabeluckz ( $ 763.14 USD )
Seat 4: danial20 ( $ 426 USD )
Seat 5: mickycheese ( $ 942.42 USD )
Seat 6: H_HoUdInI ( $ 75.60 USD )
Seat 7: symonw ( $ 396 USD )
Seat 8: Losier111 ( $ 377.85 USD )
Seat 9: patal1 ( $ 56 USD )
Seat 10: Takeem26 ( $ 401.30 USD )
Catosi posts small blind [$ 2 USD].
kcharles posts big blind [$ 4 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to Takeem26 [ 7c 6c ]
wannabeluckz folds
danial20 calls [$ 4 USD]
mickycheese calls [$ 4 USD]
H_HoUdInI calls [$ 4 USD]
symonw folds
Losier111 raises [$ 15 USD]
patal1 folds
Takeem26 calls [$ 15 USD]
Catosi folds
kcharles folds
danial20 folds
mickycheese raises [$ 22 USD]
H_HoUdInI folds
Losier111 calls [$ 11 USD]
Takeem26 calls [$ 11 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ 8c, 5d, Tc ]
mickycheese bets [$ 52 USD]
Losier111 raises [$ 150 USD]
Takeem26 calls [$ 150 USD]
mickycheese folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ 4h ]
Losier111 is all-In [$ 201.85 USD]
Takeem26 calls [$ 201.85 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
Losier111 shows [ Qd, Qs ]a pair of Queens.
Takeem26 shows [ 7c, 6c ]a flush, Jack high.
Takeem26 wins $ 844.70 USD from the main pot with a flush, Jack high.
Game #5848725725 starts.

So when i tried to work it out for real i came out with this, can someone confirm im doing it right. Thanks:

So basically before the flop there is $80 (is that correct? im not exactly sure on PP's handhistory noting system whether when it says raised 22 it means TO 22 or 22 ON TOP OF the previous, im pretty sure its the 1st one) in the pot, the flop comes down 8c,5d,Tc so ive got an up and down str8 draw, flush draw and gut shot str8 flush draw, i add that up to 16 outs. 8 for the str8 and 9 - 1 becauses of the 9c taken by the str8 and the flush so thats 8. So ive got 16 outs. 23 cards have come out of the deck so that leaves 29 cards available. 16/29 * 100 = 55% cance of hitting my out. So mickycheese then bets 52 into the $80 pot where Losier111
promptly rasies to 150 so thats now $282 in the pot and its $150 to me to call. So my pot odds are 150/282 * 100 = 53%, THEREFORE i should call as my chances of hitting my out are at 55%.Have i done this correctly? Thanks for taking time to look through. ps IMPLIED ODDS: if i call and then miss i then have a 16/28 = 57% chance hitting my out on the river so if he goes all in on the turn (as he did) and i hadn't hit my 4) the pot odds would have been 47%
and my card odds would have been at 57% so again i have to call, right?
mrgreen.gif
Thanks
 
loopmeister

loopmeister

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332
When you have a straight flush draw, you're the favorite, so you should be giving pot-odds not taking them. If you have >50% chance of winning by the river, you always have pot odds. Basically, the ABSOLUTE WORST you could do is 1:1 and you're beating that. To say the same thing mathematically:

PO = CA / (CA + DM)

where
PO = pot odds :)1)
CA = amount to call
DM = "dead" money (money in the pot before the last bet).

As DM-->0 or CA--> infiinity, PO-->1 which is the minimum.

Besides all that though, there's also a strong case for reraising all-in on the flop.
 
loopmeister

loopmeister

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I forgot to mention that the previous post refers to the case when there are TWO CARDS TO COME.
 
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Takeem26

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How does it then change?

Thanks for that. So how do things change on the river then? I was doing the same minus 1 card that has come on the turn but odds calculators put it at much less, why is this, and why does the claculation on the flop relate only to 2 cards to come?

Thanks
 
J

joeeagles

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You had the correct odds all the way. There are, however, some mistakes on the way you calculated them.

Lets start with how many outs you have after the flop. An open ended straight + flush draw + straight flush draw adds up to 15 outs, not 16; 8 for the straight (9h, 9d, 9s, 9c, 4h, 4d, 4s, 4c) and 7 for the flush (there are 9 cards for you to make the flush but you already counted the 4c and 9c, and that same 9c gives you a straight flush but, again, it already has been counted). So, you have 15 outs.

Now, with 2 cards to come and 15 outs, the odds of you hitting your hand are 54.1%. This percentage that I gave you is copied from a chart that I have that tells you your odds based on how many outs you have. At the end I will add this chart so you can copy it. If you like math and would like to figure this out on your own, you have to do it differently then the way you did it on your thread. You figured there are 29 cards left in the deck. That's not correct. The only cards you account for are the ones that you have seen, and after the flop you have only seen 5 cards ( your 2 hole cards + the 3 on the board). The hole cards of the other players are irrelevant to you because you haven't seen them. So, for the purpose of calculating your odds, you have to consider the whole remaining deck ( 52-5 = 47 cards). Now, you have 15 outs with 47 cards left and 2 cards to come (turn and river). If you do the math correctly, since there are 2 cards to come, your odds are 54.1%.

As you pointed out, if you miss on the turn, the odds will change with only 1 card to come. The math on this is much easier: 15 outs, 46 cards remaining, your odds are 15/46 = 32.6%.

Going back to your hand, I believe that before the flop there were $84 (you're right PP's hand history system is a tiny bit confusing). After flop 1st player bet $52, 2nd raised to $150, so now pot is $286. You have a 54.1% chance of making your hand and you have to put $150 in a $286 pot which is almost 2 to 1 so you are getting terrific odds.

After the turn you already made your hand but for the sake of it lets assume you didn't. Pot is now $436 and your opponent bet $201, so: $436 + $201 = $637. You now have a 32.6% chance of making your hand, so again the correct decision is a call since the odds were close enough.

As promised here follows the chart with the probability of making your hands. Remember that this is valid with 2 cards to come (after flop), assuming 47 unseen cards.

No. of outs Percentage

20 67.5
19 65
18 62.4
17 59.8
16 57
15 54.1
14 51.2
13 48.1
12 45
11 41.7
10 38.4
9 35
8 31.5
7 27.8
6 24.1
5 20.3
4 16.5
3 12.5
2 8.4
1 4.4


P.S. If you don't want to memorize this you can also use the rule of 4. This says to multiply your outs by 4. Ex. you have 7 outs, so 7 x 4 = 28%. As you can see its pretty close to the exact number. Hope all this helps you.
 
J

joeeagles

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Lol sorry, that chart looks terrible!!!!!!!!!!!! I hope you'll be able to read it, otherwise I'll put it in again, let me know.
 
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Takeem26

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No thats great thankyou! Oh yeh forgot the 4c.

Does anyone thought have the formula to work out exact pot odds though? I see that doing a simple % calc will give you the odds with one card to come but how does it change then with 2? its obviously not just 2 x % you just worked out becuase that would give me 65.2% chance to hit which doesnt match the chart
 
alexanderwoo1

alexanderwoo1

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Yep that was a great hand and I think you had about the pot odds and outs for that hand.
 
J

joeeagles

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The chart gives you the odds with 2 cards to come.

In your hand, you had 15 outs, so a 54.1% chance of making your hand with EITHER the turn or river.
 
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Takeem26

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mate, no f**kin chance

Mate 76s is one of my favorite hands for 'precisely' the reason above. If you hit anything str8, flush, 2p, 3oak, you poss have the geezer ****ed. You hope he's holding AK, poss push him off: KK, QQ etc. at the end of the day, if you play it right those mid suited connectors can be serious $.

You can see the reason i played it too: the guy raised - 15 thats only a little 3x over what i already put in, i like the hand so i call. micky:cheese then puts it at 22 so obvoiusly im already priced in so i might as well call.

so thats the reason i call that pre-flop shinanigans, i was already priced in when the 22 got offered, had to see it:-

got rewarded with the str8 flush draw:- few on this thread (well 2) have sugested i push at this point which after reviewing; i see and aggree with what they are sayin, im limiting my self by just calling: i should just stick it all in and save my self the hassle of the turn if i end up missing, opens up a whole new decision. but then , it wasnt that deep stacked so it was gonna allways been all in or fold
 
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Takeem26

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just re-read the last 2 posts sober....thought joosebuck so tellin me to lay that hand down pre flop, no need for rant sry
 
P

Prolaznik

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Mar 9, 2007
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No thats great thankyou! Oh yeh forgot the 4c.

Does anyone thought have the formula to work out exact pot odds though? I see that doing a simple % calc will give you the odds with one card to come but how does it change then with 2? its obviously not just 2 x % you just worked out becuase that would give me 65.2% chance to hit which doesnt match the chart
There is no fancy formula. And there is no need for fancy formula. :)

If you wait for one card, the probability (of making your hand) is O/N (O - number of outs; N - number of unseen cards, N is 46 virtually always)

If you wait for two cards, you have two events - turn and river. You miss your hand if you miss it both times. So:

Pm = (W1/N1)*(W2/N2) = (W1*W2)/(N1*N2)
Ph = 1 - Pm

Pm - Probability of missing your hand
Ph - Probability of hitting your hand
N1, N2 - Numbers of unseen cards before turn and river respectively. N1 = 47, N2 = 46
W1, W2 - Numbers of unwanted cards before turn and river respectively.
(W1 = N1 - O = 47 - number of outs, W2 = N2 - O = 46 - number of outs)

So, if you have 15 outs on flop, probability of missing your hand is:

Pm = ((47-15)/47)*((46-15)/46) = (32/47)*(31/46) ~ 45.88%

Therefore, probability of hitting your hand is:

Ph = 1 - Pm ~ 54.12%

If something isn't clear enough - be free to ask...
 
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