From your first set of hands
Hand 1 - fold KJo preflop, but defending KJs I think is fine. I would definitely
bluff the river as played. You don't have implied
odds on the turn, you should only x-call if you intend to fight for the pot on the river when you miss some % of the time. You can have a king-high flush here, and he usually has only one nutflush combo - AsJs. Maybe A9s and A8s that would 3bet bluff? If you lead for 60% lead on the river, you put overpairs and TPTK in a pretty tough spot. I think this is a good enough price on the bluff.
A lot of your straight draws fold the turn when the third spade hits, so from his perspective you should have flushes here a good percentage of the time, you have the Ks blocker... I think you have to go for it if you call turn.
Hand 2 - call flop is good with middle pair + BDNFD. But turn is actually more of a fold when he puts bigger like this. You block any missed AK/AJ of diamonds. Naked overcards like AhKh/AhJh I think are more apt to give up turn.
He could have AK/AJ of clubs that still barrels, but think about it: that would mean:
i) he cbet <1/3 pot with a royal flush draw, then
ii) double barreled
bigger to 2/3 pot when most of his
equity evaporates on an offsuit 3 that pairs the board, which gives him no pretty much zero fold equity.
It doesn't make sense to me... maybe call turn, but if you do, then fold river.
Hand 3 - You can only check here if you have a strong read that CO will almost always c-bet.
For your second set of hands
Hand 4 - Great turn bet with J. It's clear no one has a King here as Cbet should bet it for value when it checks to him on the flop, and sb doesn't have one when he checks flop checks turn, but you have to charge flush draws and gutshots/QT.
Well played.
Hand 5 - Why checkraise 9s? You bet a lot of his overcards and pocket pair opens outright. If you're trying to fold out better, how many combinations of Tens, Jacks, and Queens does he have vs. KQ/AK/AK? If the flush comes in and you represent it, your 9s don't give you much blocker value so you can just. You don't often win here unless you hit a set or hit a running straight.
Why is 9s in your checkraising range? You can have flush draws and 76 for your good checkraising
hands. Are you thinking that UTG will put you on those hands with ace-high and check down brick runouts expecting to win at showdown, but to be owned when you turn up with 99?
Hand 9 - This one caught my eye. I've played it pretty similarly with second nut straight on paired board vs. turn and river aggression. I think this is pretty good. It's clear you can value bet and not overplay hands.
Hand 12 - This is a c-bet spot with 66s. You have a tendency where you will bet or raise (depending on whether you're IP or OOP) any time a flush draw turns, even though in this case with 66s you are dead to a lowly pair of 8s. This is different from Hand 4 with AJ where it was clear you were good with middle pair. Here, he could just bink an 8, and also JhTh,Jh9h,Th9h have as much as 40% equity vs. you. Realize you hold the 6 of hearts, meaning you block 6h5h, so every single flush draw that calls turn has 2 overcards to your sixes as well.
This is where you have to examine your leak (autobet/autoraise when a flush draw turns). It's not enough to say you fold out bare overcards to your sixes, which are part of his overall range of course. The thing is, you have to consider your equity vs. his
calling range and not his folding range. When you ARE called, you're either crushed to 2 outs by the majority of his calling range (weak Ax that checked back flop, an 8, pocket 99s, or only a 65% favorite vs. the narrower part of his range. You don't seem to double barrel rivers, so they can just hit a pair and check it down and win. In terms of EV, you have to bet big enough to offer incorrect odds to flush draws, but this value-cuts you against the bigger part of his calling range.
Another reason this is a worse play than in the AJ hand in Hand 4 is that with AJ you basically kill all the pair outs in that flush draw portion of his calling range and win nearly 10% more at showdown. This is a much dicier spot. 66s could well be the best hand, but betting here is a mistake regardless.
Bet flop.
Hand 14 - I think just bet the flop with AK here. The board is disconnected, it's hard to float here, most hands will just have one overcard to the queen. When you bet the turn, you do get value from straight draws and you are likely ahead. But ~30% of the time they suckout and you have to let it go check check and they just scoop it at showdown, which sucks.
Or you have to figure out when he makes middle pair with 10 9 and then bluff accordingly, but sometimes you'll get it wrong and bluff into a straight.
Again, bet the flop and you take it down more reliably.
