Great play, or just very lucky...?

M

myxiplx

Rock Star
Hey guys,

I could do with some more advice please. On this hand I'm playing my usual over-aggressive style, I look like a donk if I'm honest, but most of the hands I've lost have had a chance at turning into a monster, and the few I've shown down were decent cards.

On this hand I'm raising with suited connectors UTG, it's horrible play but I'm happy to throw the $3 away if I don't hit. The plan is that it can become a good hand, and people really shouldn't put me on it.

Can't remember my reads on Blue2you, I think they'd only recently joined and had lost a little money with a good but 2nd best hand.


***** Hand History for Game 5475957702 *****
$100 NL Texas Hold'em - Saturday, December 02, 05:15:18 ET 2006
Table Table 126897 (real money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 6: lovelybaby ( $77.72 )
Seat 7: royster111 ( $28 )
Seat 10: blackdraft ( $255.76 )
Seat 2: myxiplx ( $77.85 )
Seat 1: blue2you ( $92.50 )
Seat 5: BMONEY0001 ( $127.66 )
Seat 9: BROTn1 ( $109.53 )
Seat 8: DrEvil2000 ( $19.28 )
Seat 3: xX_Chill_Xx ( $66.27 )
Seat 4: MarcMar ( $99 )
blackdraft posts small blind [$0.50].
blue2you posts big blind [$1].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to myxiplx [ 7d 6d ]
myxiplx raises [$3]
xX_Chill_Xx folds
MarcMar folds
BMONEY0001 calls [$3]
lovelybaby calls [$3]
royster111 folds
DrEvil2000 folds
BROTn1 folds
blackdraft folds
blue2you has been reconnected and has 20 seconds to act.
blue2you raises [$7] Ok, giving him credit for being solid with no reads, putting him on a good pair here, or high cards.
myxiplx calls [$5] Thought hard about this. In the end, I've got position on him after the flop, the odds are good, and the table's loose so we'll probably get two more callers.
BMONEY0001 calls [$5]
lovelybaby calls [$5]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jd, 2s, 4d ]
blue2you bets [$20] Hmm, pot size bet. He got 3 callers behind but he hasn't got my read on the table so doesn't know that's standard, his hand is probably very good. Putting him on a high pair guarding against the flush.
myxiplx calls [$20] Now he won't put me on the flush at all, a pair of K's or Q's may be worried by this. I may bluff if I feel a chance is there, otherwise this is a cointoss on my flush draw - 2:1 to win, 3:1 pot odds, with position and chance for more money if I hit.
BMONEY0001 folds
lovelybaby folds
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ] Whee, hit the flush, and I've got a str flush draw too.
blue2you checks Don't buy him being nervous at all, think he's encouraging a bluff.
myxiplx is all-In [$49.85] Ok, I can pretend to bluff for you, all in please.
blue2you calls [$49.85] wheeeee!
** Dealing River ** [ 7h ]
blue2you shows [ Kc, Ks ]a pair of Kings.
myxiplx shows [ 7d, 6d ]a flush, Jack high.
myxiplx wins $169.20 from the main pot with a flush, Jack high.

Well, I got the result I wanted, my read was spot on. The question is, was the $20 call gamble correct. I had to see the river for the odds to be right, was gambling that he'd be cautious on the turn and give me a free river. He could have put me in a very tough position had I missed the flush on the turn.

Myx
 
Welly

Welly

Guest
It's a little touch and go. Your pulling the turn only, so you're pulling 19% at a cost of 29%. Essentially you'd need to imply at least a $35 payoff if you hit. This is slightly dangerous on a flush draw. OK he may feel there is enough value in it (calling the $35 with $69 in the middle), but you're getting into slightly dicey territory.

If we replay the hand when you miss the turn. He bets again, maybe $25 when chips in middle = $69.50. Neq Eq there, but you may be too tempted because of the $27 you've already commited.

Replay No.2 :- Limp (if you must :)), he raises (say to 4), you call, 2 other callers. He bets 12....blah, blah, blah. If you miss turn it is cheaper, if you hit there is more potential implied value.
 
KerouacsDog

KerouacsDog

Legend
i like it. Im not too hot on odds, but the PF raise with 67soooted was a good move. People have to take risks with other hands than the premiums, or you're gonna have so many reads on yourself.
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
I don't like it. Doyle Brunson likes 76s against a high pair because they're going to stack off to you if you hit. But here, because of the re-raise you don't get big enough implied odds. If you'd limped pre-flop you might.

You're paying another $5 to see a flop and possibly win $80. But the chances you make a winning hand against an overpair by the river are only around 23%, and a smaller chance of flopping it, as it's likely to be too expensive to see all the cards. I don't know what the probability of flopping 2 pair of better is, but I suspect it's less than the 16:1 that you're effectively paying. You'll only make your flush 3% of the time by the river.

There are some other threads here on flush draw odds if you do a search. In summary the recommendation is not to call more than a half pot bet on the flop with a flush draw, as anything more is too expensive for a 20% chance of hitting on the turn.
 
loopmeister

loopmeister

Rock Star
Doyle Brunson may have been world champ, but he strikes me as a gambler. Wasn't he broke a few years after winning wsop? <flame away :) >

67s only gives you 43% against one opponent with random cards.
Against 2 more callers in a raised pot your odds are in the region of 6:1 or worse.

The HH is a bit confusing, but as I see it your pot odds to see the flop were only 3.5:1 (call $5 to see a $17.50 pot). Taking your reads into account, your implied pre-flop odds are about 5.5:1, which makes it marginal.
- So fold to BB's raise, is what the maths is telling me.

On the flop, you should fold to a pot-sized bet with a flush draw. Bombjack explained why better than I can, but in the long run you're losing money on this play.

To answer your question, I think you got lucky this time.

A final note though - you've got to make crazy plays once in a while to throw people's reads on you off. So even if you had lost this hand, you may gain future value from people thinking you're a donk (just don't try any bluffs for the next few hours).
 
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