Discussion of Poker Hand #462

B

Barrettm95

Enthusiast
Joined
Sep 24, 2007
Total posts
39
Stacks: - Killin1441 with 3595 - xandyshredx with 6584 - GBARR46 with 4490 - Max_Norm with 1000 - clerkboy783 with 850 - Barrettm95 with 1760

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Site: full tilt poker
* - Dealt to Barrettm95:
kh.gif
ah.gif

* - Sklansky group 1
Preflop:
* - max_norm calls [10]
* - clerkboy783 calls [10]
* - Barrettm95 calls [10] Killin1441 calls [10]
* - xandyshredx calls [5 [Qh 3c]]
* - GBARR46 checks
* - Potsize: 60
Flop:
jh.gif
qc.gif
9h.gif

* - xandyshredx bets [60]
* - max_norm calls [60]
* - Barrettm95 calls [60]
* - Folds: 3
* - Potsize: 240
Turn:
3h.gif

* - xandyshredx bets [240]
* - max_norm calls [240]
* - Barrettm95 raises to 1,690, and is all in
* - xandyshredx calls [1,450]
* - Barrettm95 shows :
kh.gif
ah.gif

* - xandyshredx shows :
qh.gif
3c.gif

* - Folds: 1
* - Potsize: 3860
River:
qs.gif

* - Barrettm95 shows a flush, Ace high
* - xandyshredx shows a full house, Queens full of Threes
* - xandyshredx wins the pot (3,860) with a full house, Queens full of Threes

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OK where exactly did I go wrong here? I was quick to say that this was just bad luck but I have found two possible mistakes on my part. 1) only limped in preflop. a raise might have pushed xandy.. out. (the way he was playing it might have provoked an all-in out of him also which if I called would have had the same result and if I folded he just bullied me out of my raise) OK mistake #2) should I have waited for the river to go all-in and then I would have seen the pair on the board. Should he have called my all in with trip 3's and a flush on the board. Given our relative chipstacks I think he was ok to call though. Obviously I wanted him to. What are the odds of the board pairing on the river if you have a set? That's 10 outs (3 for three of the cards and 1 for one of them (which would actually give you quads)) out of 46 unknown cards. 10/46=.21 or about 1 in 5. Quads would obviously be 1 in 46. Correct?
 
S

Seneku

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Total posts
173
Raise preflop, raise flop, don't overbet turn, you got unlucky that someone boated on the river. No need to overanalyse this, you got all the money in with the nuts on the turn. If you're hesitant to go allin with the nuts, you shouldn't play poker (hold em, at least, with other forms of poker you could make a case for folding the nuts I guess).
 
B

Barrettm95

Enthusiast
Joined
Sep 24, 2007
Total posts
39
you're right. A second look tells me he only had 2 pair on the turn and was a 10 to 1 underdog. He only had 3 outs not 10. (two queens and the last 3) I'm going back to my original analysis of bad luck. thanks for responding.
 
royalburrito24

royalburrito24

Legend
Joined
Aug 27, 2007
Total posts
2,417
played it fine, unlucky situation for the nut flush
 
S

Seneku

Rock Star
Joined
Mar 19, 2007
Total posts
173
you're right. A second look tells me he only had 2 pair on the turn and was a 10 to 1 underdog. He only had 3 outs not 10. (two queens and the last 3) I'm going back to my original analysis of bad luck. thanks for responding.

It wouldn't really matter. Even if he had 10 outs on the river you should always be willing to go allin. On every $ you put in your return is over 1.5$ on average. I'd take that investment any day of the week!
 
TubaMark316

TubaMark316

Guest
Joined
Oct 3, 2007
Total posts
209
You played it fine, you won the pot, didn't you? :D
 
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