Chasing the straight/flush

zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
According to my buddies, this was my worst one from last night.

I'm seated beside the button, 1/2 no limit, with about 120 in my stack. Very loose table - the only tight guy in the hand is in the BB. I've got [5d][6d]. Middle position (MP) limps, I limp, button raises to 6. SB, BB, MP all call. I'm getting decent odds on my money ($4 to a $26 pot) so I call too.

Flop comes out [7d][8d][Ah], pot is $27 ($3 rake)

Blinds check, Middle Position bets $20, my turn to decide. I think a long time, and eventually fold it. At the time I felt it was the right play - playing to the double-draw seems like a bad idea, both because my flush would be weak if I hit, and because it was not likely that there would be more than one caller (so probably bad odds).

My buddy, at the end of the hand, said he would have called, and called it my worst laydown of the night. For kicks, I polled the table, and just about everyone said they would call too. The consensus was that the implied odds were very much in my favor, even if the mathematical pot odds were not. Basically, I had a chance to take down a huge pot if I hit the straight flush, a reasonable chance at being the only regular flush if that hit, and a chance at a winning straight.

2 outs for straight-flush
7 outs for low-flush
4 outs for best straight (the 4 coming off)
4 outs for bottom end straight (the 9's)

What does everyone think? I'll tell ya how it ended later.
 
A

agentKGB

Rising Star
i think i would call
sooooo many outs and the rush of getting a straight flush would be awesome
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
Why are you even playing this hand preflop if you're going to fold on this kind of flop?

I certainly wouldn't announce to that table that I had folded this if for some reason I chose to fold - have fun getting bluffed all night because everyone's thinking you're incredibly weak-tight. :p
 
shinedown.45

shinedown.45

Legend
Why are you even playing this hand preflop if you're going to fold on this kind of flop?

I certainly wouldn't announce to that table that I had folded this if for some reason I chose to fold - have fun getting bluffed all night because everyone's thinking you're incredibly weak-tight. :p
DM is on the money as usual, you should have called with as many outs as you had.
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

Cardschat Elite
I'll probably screw this up, but I am gonna try some math.:eek:

You have 17 outs, so about a 68%-70% chance to hit one of your cards.

Bet was $20 into a $27 pot. ($30 before rake is taken out.)

70% of $27 is $18.90 so very close odds to make the call. If we use $30 then we get $21.

Then of course the implied odds are very good.
 
zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
I'll probably screw this up, but I am gonna try some math.:eek:

You have 17 outs, so about a 68%-70% chance to hit one of your cards.

Bet was $20 into a $27 pot. ($30 before rake is taken out.)

70% of $27 is $18.90 so very close odds to make the call. If we use $30 then we get $21.

Then of course the implied odds are very good.

The problem with the straight math is that over half of my outs give me a questionable "best hand".

The 7 outs for a regular flush still give me a weak flush - my highest card is in the bottom half of the suit.
The 4 outs for a 9 coming out give me the very bottom of the straight - and I know way too many people who love playing the J-T.

For me to be confident, I only have 6 outs - the two for my straight-flush, and the 4 fours, for the inside straight.

looking back, I realize I was playing too passive for the flop (the way this casino plays, you can actually still make money by coming in with trash and only playing after the flop if you're 2 pair or better - the "top pair betters" are obscenely overconfident/aggressive because of the rake). I guess I still let the near-pot bet scare me off a draw.

Incidentally, the last two cards were [9h][jc] - and I would have won a hefty side pot (the main pot went to a short-stacked BB with pocket T's).
MP won the side pot, which was 3 times larger than the main pot, with two pair - A's and 7's.
 
Dorkus Malorkus

Dorkus Malorkus

HELLO INTERNET
Much like worrying about set over set or boat over boat, you simply cannot worry too much about flush over flush in these situations. It happens, but it happens rarely. You can perhaps cut a small number from your flush outs or something if you want (discounting them all is just ridiculous though), but I just tend to assume that if I hit my flush it will be good unless we're very deepstacked.

Heck, if you're worried about a better flush draw, raise the flop and price higher flush draws out. It's better than folding, anyway.
 
tenbob

tenbob

Legend
Awards
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This hand isnt even a calling hand, its a raising hand. Raising achieves 2 things, defines your hand strength, hands like AK/AQ may just call, AA WILL PUSH. Generally though, raising here is a effort to get a free river card, so if you miss the turn which is likely, youll be hopeing to save yourself a possible much bigger turn bet into you.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
Why are you even playing this hand preflop if you're going to fold on this kind of flop?

^^^^^^^This

And you shouldn't worry about someone in with JT making a better straight if you hit your 9, because any JT is going to fold on this flop unless perhaps they happen to have exactly JT of diamonds. The odds of this are so incredibly low that you pretty much have to discount it, or else you're just playing too scared.
 
Xandit

Xandit

Guest
This hand isnt even a calling hand, its a raising hand. Raising achieves 2 things, defines your hand strength, hands like AK/AQ may just call, AA WILL PUSH. Generally though, raising here is a effort to get a free river card, so if you miss the turn which is likely, youll be hopeing to save yourself a possible much bigger turn bet into you.


Exactly correct. flops like this are the reason to play low suited connectors. You need to raise this flop, you could get a larger single diamond to fold, you have huge equity in the pot. at this point you should be thinking about how you can get the most money into the pot....I understand betting draws are hard....but you need to be aggressive in this instance for the free card if you chose to take it...

Pot odds are great and math are very important. but you need to remember that poker is gambling....there is nothing wrong if you get your money in with the best of it and lose...it sucks but that's what it's about..
 
zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
oops

^^^^^^^This

And you shouldn't worry about someone in with JT making a better straight if you hit your 9, because any JT is going to fold on this flop unless perhaps they happen to have exactly JT of diamonds. The odds of this are so incredibly low that you pretty much have to discount it, or else you're just playing too scared.

Funny, I didn't even think about this when I was considering the hand!
Just tear a huge whole in my justification for folding, why don't you?
 
Lo-Dog

Lo-Dog

Cardschat Elite
Funny, I didn't even think about this when I was considering the hand!
Just tear a huge whole in my justification for folding, why don't you?


I would have called but not for all the reasons listed here, so I have learned something too.:D
 
zebranky

zebranky

Rock Star
This hand isnt even a calling hand, its a raising hand. Raising achieves 2 things, defines your hand strength, hands like AK/AQ may just call, AA WILL PUSH. Generally though, raising here is a effort to get a free river card, so if you miss the turn which is likely, youll be hopeing to save yourself a possible much bigger turn bet into you.

I would call it a betting hand, but I'm still not sure about raising. The bet in front of me IS a strength display. Considering the pot is still fairly small (27 in the middle) compared to what a raise should be (60), The only thing I would have changed is to call instead of fold (two other hands ended up calling, but I had to act first after the bet - the number of callers would have easily justified a call).
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
This hand isnt even a calling hand, its a raising hand. Raising achieves 2 things, defines your hand strength, hands like AK/AQ may just call, AA WILL PUSH. Generally though, raising here is a effort to get a free river card, so if you miss the turn which is likely, youll be hopeing to save yourself a possible much bigger turn bet into you.

I don't think I agree with the raise here.
a) A raise will push people out. If they have Ace-face then maybe the button / SB / BB will also call, but fold to a raise which gives away 2 pair+.
b) I still don't get this "defining your hand strength" thing. You DON'T WANT your opponents to know how strong your hand is. You want them to do what they wouldn't do if they could see your cards (Sklansky p.1 para 1).
c) It's probably not necessary to raise to bring the pot size to a level where you can get all your chips in, as the pot is going to be huge after this round, allowing you to get all your chips in with a normal sized bet on the turn or river
d) If your opponent has AA (or any set) you're a dog so you don't want to be all-in if you know an opponent has a set, unless you can be sure there will be at least one other caller. It's more likely than not that they don't have AA though so I'd welcome a push, but just pointing out.

I don't disagree that a push is appropriate in some situations with this draw - e.g. you're heads up in a hand and think your opponent has an Ace, and you push at him for FOLD EQUITY, not value. You're a slight favourite, but you get more value in the long run from the fold equity. (E.g. if there's $10 in the pot and you're a 51% favourite if you push for $95 more, you'll win on average $2 from the hand. If your opponent folds, you win $10.) I haven't done the calculations but I suspect here you're better off hoping some opponents stay in so you win a monster pot.

You may even get lucky and see a raise behind you, which would be ideal. Your call has made the pot big enough for the MP player to push / call. In that situation where you're 3 way and it's been raised and called so there's now a big pot, a push by you then probably becomes +EV, for fold equity, although you're probably still 50/50 if they call.

zebransky - with 14 or more outs on any flop, you are usually the favourite, which is why you don't mind raising the flop on a strong draw. (Usually, because your opponent may have redraws to a stronger hand like a full house if they have a set.)
 
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M

myxiplx

Rock Star
No, the bet in front of you isn't necessarily a strength display. It's a bet designed to push out the flush or straight draws by denying them their odds, but a straight and flush draw has more than enough outs to call.

Also, exactly what do you think the raiser has here to be scared of it? Is he really likely to be holding 9T for a higher straight draw after a 3x raise preflop? Similarly a flush draw (other than AKs) is unlikely after the preflop raise and strong bet on the flop - a strong flush draw would be wanting callers to build the pot, although he might be happy to steal the pot if he feels he can.

AKs is a possibility based on the preflop play, but very unlikely with that bet on the flop. On the flop AKs becomes TPTK with the nut flush draw, he'd be betting small for value here trying to keep you both in, not trying to push you out.

I don't see your opponent holding anything other than a high A, or TT+ here. Both of you checked to him so it's unlikely you hold an A, but either of you could have the flush or straight draw. He'll be betting like this with any pair or any A to drive you out of the pot.

I'd call or raise here every time, and do whichever one I feel is likely to get him to commit the most chips to the pot. You're a huge favourite to his likely holdings and there's a good chance you could take his stack if he's got a strong A.

In short, you may not have a made hand now, but you're probably favourite to win by the river. Get as many chips out of him as you can.

Myx
 
Marklar

Marklar

Rock Star
I wouldnt worry too much about making the low flush, but I would rather hit the straight because you're likely to get paid off with a straight more often than with a flush (funny how flushes are ranked higher)

Anyhow you got the perfect flop with this hand. An ace on the board and you have 15 outs. An open ended straight flush draw is the best possible drawing hand in holdem. go all in!
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Anyhow you got the perfect flop with this hand. An ace on the board and you have 15 outs. An open ended straight flush draw with a pair and an overcard is the best possible drawing hand in holdem. go all in!

E.g. [qc][jc] on a flop of [9c][10c][jd] - you're behind but you're 65% vs AA and 62% vs AJ.
 
Marklar

Marklar

Rock Star
E.g. Q♣J♣ on a flop of 9♣10♣J♦ - you're behind but you're 65% vs AA and 62% vs AJ.

Your numbers remind me of a game I was in yesterday. I had KJ of hearts flop game Qh Th 7s. I went all in and he called with pocket 8s. Of course I was a big favorite there. Something like 75%. Any jack, king, heart, 9, or ace would give me the winning hand.... I didnt win though lol. I think it came running sixes or something. diamond and a club. Is that a bad beat?
 
Bombjack

Bombjack

Legend
Oh yeah, that's an even bigger draw. You're 71% :eek: to win on the flop. The question is, why's he calling with pocket 8s? :rolleyes:
 
Ronaldadio

Ronaldadio

Legend
Why are you even playing this hand preflop if you're going to fold on this kind of flop? :p

I`m not a cash player, but I agree with DM. At the point u folded u were probably in a better position than u were when u called the preflop raise.

Does not mean it was a bad fold, more of a bad call in the first place. Sry m8
 
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