Bottom pair + straight draw - Limit

[Bombjack]

Any Limit players out there might offer some tips here? Was this OK or should I maybe check-raise the flop?

Just having a crisis of confidence at the moment at Limit. Was doing really well, but have just lost 3 25 BB buy-ins in a row. I do seem to KEEP getting rivered though, and my opponent always seems to have a flush when one is possible.

party poker 0.50/1 Hold'em (6 handed)

Preflop: Hero is BB with T

, J

.
1 fold, MP calls, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP calls.

Flop: (6.50 SB) T

, Q

, K

(3 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, CO folds, Hero calls.

Turn: (4.25 BB) K

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP bets, Hero calls.

River: (6.25 BB) 7

(2 players)
Hero checks, MP checks.

Final Pot: 6.25 BB

 

[joosebuck]

QJ? T7?

p.s. 6 handed i raise this flop

 

[F Paulsson]

I wouldn't raise this flop. You likely have a little bit of equity surplus, but you're out of position so the option of taking a free card on the turn isn't there. If you checkraise the flop, you'll make hands like 66-99 fold and you don't really want that to happen (you're such a huge favorite that you'd prefer to just go to showdown against those hands).

And hands like A-8 aren't folding when you checkraise the flop. Because they won't fold, you're going to be betting the turn unimproved a lot of times and you may walk right into a trap when you do - a trap that you can't fold away from, given your massive amount of outs.

Just calling is fine.

 

[zebranky]

stop calling

I disagree with calling the turn bet, other than that, you're good. You've got enough outs on the flop to justify calling a 1-bet (straight or trips), but the turn leaves you only drawing to the straight, heads up. Time to let it go, unless you know MP is aggressive with weak hands. He's got a whole range of possible hands to beat you - straights, king, paired Q - so I think you have to assume you're behind, and act accordiingly.

 

[F Paulsson]

I disagree with calling the turn bet, other than that, you're good. You've got enough outs on the flop to justify calling a 1-bet (straight or trips), but the turn leaves you only drawing to the straight, heads up. Time to let it go, unless you know MP is aggressive with weak hands. He's got a whole range of possible hands to beat you - straights, king, paired Q - so I think you have to assume you're behind, and act accordiingly.

"Only" drawing to the straight? We're getting 5:1 on a straight draw that most likely is still live, and unless we're up against specifically a king, we have outs against other hands as well. Folding this turn is out of the question.

 

[zebranky]

"Only" drawing to the straight? We're getting 5:1 on a straight draw that most likely is still live, and unless we're up against specifically a king, we have outs against other hands as well. Folding this turn is out of the question.

but what are the odds here? You've got 8 outs for the straight, so a 17.4% chance. The call is 1 BB to a 5.25 BB pot, so 19%. Calling for the straight alone isn't justified - you're losing over time on this play.

As for the other outs - it's possible you can get 2 pair or trips - but again, its equally possible your opponent already has a straight, or a hand that could dominate you (I would bet the same way the opponent did with AK, AQ, AJ, KJ, KT, QT all of which are favorites over the hand you hold).

I stand with my original point - unless you've pegged this guy as a player who pushes on weaker hands, I think its a fold. if he's reasonable tight, then I think you have to put him on the better hands, and let it go.

 

[F Paulsson]

We have implied odds to cover the slight deficiency of immediate pot odds on the sole straight draw. And that's presuming that we're always, always behind when he bets the turn - which we're not; he will have A-rag or 9-9 often enough to swing this to a call even without counting the implied odds. Throw in the times that some of our "other" five outs are live, and it's a clear call.

 

[zebranky]

We have implied odds to cover the slight deficiency of immediate pot odds on the sole straight draw. And that's presuming that we're always, always behind when he bets the turn - which we're not; he will have A-rag or 9-9 often enough to swing this to a call even without counting the implied odds. Throw in the times that some of our "other" five outs are live, and it's a clear call.

I think we'll have to "agree to disagree" on this one. I've based my assumptions on the idea that the opponent is a TA, which is obviously different from where you're starting from. Even if he has 9's (which just doesn't fit the betting pattern - why would a pair limp and flat call PF) or A-rag (generally, a throw-away hand in middle position), the hand our Hero has is marginal to call. Absent a good read on the opponents style, I think its better to assume he's got the better hand and leave it alone, rather than pay for a river card that you have to act first on.
But that goes back to my argument of why position is even more important in limit than in no-limit - because you just can't get much information from your bets/raises.

 

[F Paulsson]

It's six-handed $0.5/$1. I think presuming TA when presented with an unknown player is a big mistake when it comes to decisions in decently sized pots where the pot odds are close; I presume loose and passive. Something like 40/8/1. Sometimes this is a guy who limps anything suited. Sometimes it's a "semibluffing" ace-rag, sometimes - admittedly rarely - it's a ditto 9-9.

At stakes ten times higher than these, I still run into players who limp J8 under the gun. When these players overoptimistically semibluff boards like this, you get a hand that looks like this.

What range of hands are you putting our opponent on when you conclude that we don't have odds to continue?

 

[Bombjack]

Do you call a river bet here FP? I'd probably fold it.

 

[F Paulsson]

I'd fold it most of the time. Few people are daring enough to bet that board a third time with any hand that you can beat. To him, it must look like you're in call-down mode.

Now it's time for christmas ham. Yum!

 

[zebranky]

What range of hands are you putting our opponent on when you conclude that we don't have odds to continue?

That's part of the big problem I have with Limit - I can't "lock in" what the opponents might have. Limping the PF in MP doesn't tell us anything, other than the fact he probably doesn't have two rags or a big pair.
He bet the flop with K-Q-T out there. That usually would mean he has a Kx, Qx, KJ, QJ, TT or already hit the straight (I don't think a lonely J would bet, but at this limit, I suppose they could). His bet on the turn again suggests one of the above possibilities, except maybe he wouldn't bet a Q. So the most likely hands I give him on the turn is trip K, fullhouse, straight, or two pair KQ.
Of course, his check on the river means he can't have any of these hands - why would he check - leaving me to think he was semi-bluffing the whole time. But because our Hero had to act first, this isn't part of the information available for this hand.

 

[Bombjack]

If I remember rightly he had a Queen. He bets the turn because he thinks I don't have a King since I didn't bet, and correctly reasons that he probably has the best hand.