Blow Up Or Genuis Play?

[ColdDeckCity]

The Hand:

Stacks:
MP with $66.80
CO with $113.52
BTN with $123.19
SB with $46.64
BB with $116.65
UTG with $60.41

Site: Party Poker
Dealt to CO:A♥ K♦
Sklansky group 2
Preflop:
1 players fold.
MP calls [$1 USD]
Hero raises [$4 USD]
3 players fold.
MP raises [$6 USD]
Hero calls [$3 USD]
Total folds this street: 4
Potsize: $14.5
Flop:
J♠ Q♦ J♦
MP bets [$12 USD]
Hero calls [$12 USD]
Potsize: $38.5
Turn:
5♦
MP is all-in.
Hero calls [$47.80 USD]
Potsize: $86.3
River:
2♦


The Analysis:

I did not have any stats on the villain but i played with him for a while and i knew he was ready to make a move against me because i was constantly raising his limps, (with genuine hands). I did not re-raise pre flop just in case he had a pocket pair, and becasue of our "battles" my fold equity against him was minimal. My actions seem drastic but i just "knew" he was tilted vs. me. i felt that at BEST he had an under pair so i have a lot of outs, plus he could have absolute trash as he did. I made the right read but was it the right play? Thanks


The Results:

MP shows a flush, Ace high:
9♠ A♦
Hero shows a flush, King high:
A♥ K♦
MP wins $132.10 USD from the main pot with a flush, Ace high.

 

[BelgoSuisse]

Results are irrelevant. What matters is what range of hands can you put him on when he shoves the turn ? If your equity against that range is good enough to pay for pot odds, then the call is good. Otherwise it's spew.

You pay 47.80 for a 132.1 pot, so you need to win 36% of the time.

Let's assume villain plays very legitimate hands, so he only shoves made flushes and hands with a J. Well, that's actually 16% of all possible hands. And against that not so tight range your equity is only 18%, a disaster.

But your read says he will play wild against you, so lets assume he shoves any pocket pair, any J, any Q, any made flush, and semi-bluffs the flush draws with Ad, then your equity against that range is 32%. Still a bad call.

You really need to include bluffs with total air in villain's range for this call to be profitable. That's usually a sign you should have folded.