AKs in the BB, 50NL

[ChuckTs]

Firstly, this was my first cash game in months (I steer clear of them usually...too many bad experiences), and I'm playing waaayyy above my BR limits.

I tried to take this down PF with my huge raise, but evidently these guys either had legit hands, or they weren't buying me. This was a very limpey table, and I knew that the minraise and 2 calls were very weak.

On the flop with the nut flush + overcards, I know I'm a favourite over any pair QQ and down, save JJ and 88 which have me crushed, and I'm 99% sure I'm not up against AA or KK. Is the case of someone having a jack here make it too risky for me to make a C-bet?

EDIT: Reads are that the table is generally limpy, with me being roughly 25/15 and very aggressive when I make a hand. They had given up nearly every pot I was in prior to this one when I raised PF and C-bet the flop.

pokerstars GAME #7741552935: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2007/01/03 - 03:04:08 (ET)
Table 'Icarus III' 9-max Seat #7 is the button
Seat 2: bobes124 ($56.65 in chips)
Seat 3: x walks x ($41.45 in chips)
Seat 4: highrolla50 ($39.20 in chips)
Seat 5: SethiusDrvn ($1 in chips)
Seat 6: taupe ($28.85 in chips)
Seat 7: PDPDiablo ($12 in chips)
Seat 8: 18king ($26 in chips)
Seat 9: ChuckTs ($70.90 in chips)
18king: posts small blind $0.25
ChuckTs: posts big blind $0.50
SmokingChris: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to ChuckTs [As Ks]
bobes124: raises $0.50 to $1
x walks x: folds
highrolla50: calls $1
SethiusDrvn: folds
taupe: folds
PDPDiablo: folds
18king: calls $0.75
ChuckTs: raises $5 to $6
bobes124: calls $5
highrolla50: calls $5
18king: folds
*** FLOP *** [Js Jh 8s]
ChuckTs: bets $15

 

[Dingodaddy23]

preflop is good

this is fine, though i'd have probably bet like $8-9 hoping for a raise so I could 3-bet all in. check-raise all-in is a decent line also, or you might even get a free card if it gets checked through. With the size of your flop bet, I'm definately trying to get all the chips in here though.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

oh yeah, take it from me... cuz i know........

Firstly, this was my first cash game in months (I steer clear of them usually...too many bad experiences), and I'm playing waaayyy above my BR limits.

bad idea....

 

[beardyian]

I tend to play a lot of cash - mainly .50/$1 and sometimes when you raise big it doesnt register with some players just what your doing.

I have found in cash it is a lot more important to lay the hand down when you think you are beaten than in a tourney not just because it can get expensive but the opposition will often carry on to the river

 

[ChuckTs]

oh yeah, take it from me... cuz i know........





bad idea....

yeah...i've been there, done that, lost 1/2 of my 2.5K BR....

I'm just gambling with my $100+ right now that I have left on PS...not really practicing good BR management ATM.

 

[gord962]

Chuck,
The $25 tables are good on Stars. A great mix of donks and LAG players with the odd TAG player as well. Keep raising big PF and 1/2 pot c-bets and punish them when you hit your hand. To get you back to good BR mgmt, even the $10 tables on Stars you can make $30 in an hour quite easily multi-tabling on 3 tables. Just learn to lay down if you didn't hit. Those are what kill you on the cash tables.

 

[ChuckTs]

Chuck,
The $25 tables are good on Stars. A great mix of donks and LAG players with the odd TAG player as well. Keep raising big PF and 1/2 pot c-bets and punish them when you hit your hand. To get you back to good BR mgmt, even the $10 tables on Stars you can make $30 in an hour quite easily multi-tabling on 3 tables. Just learn to lay down if you didn't hit. Those are what kill you on the cash tables.

Even $25 is way too much for my 'roll...I'm just gambling for fun right now

Anyways here is the unexciting result from this hand; I just thought I'd share and see what your thoughts were as this was the biggest pot of the session:

...
*** FLOP *** [Js Jh 8s]
ChuckTs: bets $15
bobes124: folds
highrolla50: folds
ChuckTs collected $18.05 from pot
ChuckTs: doesn't show hand

...They were both very reluctant to fold. My guess was something like 99 and a medium ace.

 

[gord962]

Nice take down Chuck.

What would you have done here if even one of them fired back at you?

 

[ChuckTs]

Hmm..well after doing the math's, if bobes pushed, he'd be giving me 2.4:1...I think that might be a 'technical' fold.

I'm not sure how to calculate the probability of him holding a jack, but the pot odds are pretty poor here. Even so, I probably call - the only hand I can see him calling PF with that hit the flop are 88, JJ (VERY improbable) and AJ. He was too tight PF to call with anything else.

As for the second guy, he'd be giving me nearly 4:1. Almost good enough to call for the flush draw alone, so I think it's an easy call. He's probably pushing with QQ->99 or worse.

As you've seen from my other hands, I can't lay down a big pair or draw so I probably call either (or both) of them

 

[stormswa]

On the flop with the nut flush + overcards, I know I'm a favourite over any pair QQ and down, save JJ and 88 which have me crushed, and I'm 99% sure I'm not up against AA or KK. Is the case of someone having a jack here make it too risky for me to make a C-bet?




this part got me thinking, you are not ahead here you are behind a overpair. Look at attached image to see correct odds, as for hand I would of bet more on the flop so I could commit myself to the reraise all in. sorry about size of attached image im not sure how to resize here yet.

 

[ChuckTs]

Hmm - my pokerstove isn't working right now but I was under the impression that with two overs + flush draw vs a lower pair, the drawing hand was the favourite...maybe because the Qs in this case fills the FH with a paired board?

Anyways...I don't understand your post, stormswa...now that you know I'm behind a pocket pair, you want to push?

 

[stormswa]

no

Hmm - my pokerstove isn't working right now but I was under the impression that with two overs + flush draw vs a lower pair, the drawing hand was the favourite...maybe because the Qs in this case fills the FH with a paired board?

Anyways...I don't understand your post, stormswa...now that you know I'm behind a pocket pair, you want to push?

I want you to bet enough where if you are re-raised all in by villian you can make the call because of your pot odds. So take this for instance say you have same hand and only bet $15 and villian still has $60 in stack if he comes over the top of you for his stack now you have to call $45 to win about $80 thats less then 2-1 and you are getting 2-1 on your draw.

now say same situation you push for $25 and he pushes the rest in for $60 now you have to call $35 to win the $90 which is a little better then 2-1 and you have correct odds to call.

so what I mean is if you really want to run this hand to the felt I would push enough where I had odds to call if he came over the top. This way you give yourself a couple ways to win. he could fold or you will win by making draw.


the odds I gave are rough off top of my head but just wanted to give you kinda idea what I meant. If I had time I could make more detail ones if you want them let me know be happy to get some.



edit: the thing is you most likley dont have the best hand at this point, the thing is you wouldnt mind a fold but if he happens to call you wont be too disapointed by it.

 

[ChuckTs]

I know what you mean by pricing myself in. That wasn't what I was questioning. What I meant was why would you want to price yourself in if the only hands that are going to call you are those that have you beat? I was trying to get my money in here because I thought I would either have the best hand, or (so I thought) would be the favourite vs pairs <QQ.

If anything, now that I know that pairs are actually a favourite on this flop, the only reason I'd bet was in hopes that I could take the pot down right now. I'd bet even less than my $15 so that I could get away from it easier.

 

[stormswa]

I know what you mean by pricing myself in. That wasn't what I was questioning. What I meant was why would you want to price yourself in if the only hands that are going to call you are those that have you beat? I was trying to get my money in here because I thought I would either have the best hand, or (so I thought) would be the favourite vs pairs <QQ.

If anything, now that I know that pairs are actually a favourite on this flop, the only reason I'd bet was in hopes that I could take the pot down right now. I'd bet even less than my $15 so that I could get away from it easier.

if you plan on folding to a re-raise why bet at all? just check/fold. I personally would bet to price myself in, you are only a tiny bit behind like 4% or something and I think with the fact that you will take it down sometimes you will come out ahead in the long run. But of course we have to add in the times you are behind trips and flopped house's.

Dont know its a tight spot no matter how you play it. I dont mind how you played it and by no means do I think you played it bad. I was just trying to offer a different option, a certain admin thinks I need to be nicer. I come off demanding when I type but trust me cash games are not my strong point just read my website and there is proof of that. In a tourney I would be much better with this.

 

[Dingodaddy23]

storm, check-folding here would be incredibly weak. come on now, u 3-bet preflop, flopped the nut flush draw + 2 overcards, check-folding should be the LAST thing in your mind. going over the hand again, I do like a smaller bet, probably 10-12, hoping a small pair calls that cant call a 2nd-barrel (you should be firing a 2nd barrel on a blank turn most times) or a smaller flush draw comes along for the ride. but nothing wrong with taking it down on the flop like you did, it was probably gonna come with the 2 red deuces on the river and you lose to his 33

 

[ChuckTs]

Don't worry about being 'nicer'; I enjoy a good argument

OK as you mentioned, this is a tight decision

I'm sometimes really bad at explaining things, so I'll put it as plainly as I can. I don't see how pricing yourself in when you're a dog to villain's range is a good idea:

The way I see it, by betting bigger (let's say >$20), there are 2 different results here:

1) You C-bet, and your opponents fold.
2) You C-bet, and your opponent(s) push. You are now trapped as a dog, by however much.

So with 1), you've risked more, and won less, and with 2), you've priced yourself in as a dog.

Now with betting smaller (say $10-$15), you get 2 different results:

1) You C-bet, and your opponents fold.
2) You C-bet, and your opponent(s) push. You have a chance to get away since you haven't priced yourself in.

With 1), you've risked less and won the same amount, and with 2), you've bet small enough to get away from an unfavourable situation.

Why are we betting big if we are a dog to villain's range?

 

[stormswa]

yes

storm, check-folding here would be incredibly weak. come on now, u 3-bet preflop, flopped the nut flush draw + 2 overcards, check-folding should be the LAST thing in your mind. going over the hand again, I do like a smaller bet, probably 10-12, hoping a small pair calls that cant call a 2nd-barrel (you should be firing a 2nd barrel on a blank turn most times) or a smaller flush draw comes along for the ride. but nothing wrong with taking it down on the flop like you did, it was probably gonna come with the 2 red deuces on the river and you lose to his 33

yes I agree and dont suggest doing, but if you plan on folding to any aggression then yes I say check folding. Truth is you have monster hand here and I think folding this would be mistake. But if you plan on folding why put unneeded money in the pot.

 

[stormswa]

Don't worry about being 'nicer'; I enjoy a good argument

OK as you mentioned, this is a tight decision

I'm sometimes really bad at explaining things, so I'll put it as plainly as I can. I don't see how pricing yourself in when you're a dog to villain's range is a good idea:

The way I see it, by betting bigger (let's say >$20), there are 2 different results here:

1) You C-bet, and your opponents fold.
2) You C-bet, and your opponent(s) push. You are now trapped as a dog, by however much.

So with 1), you've risked more, and won less, and with 2), you've priced yourself in as a dog.

Now with betting smaller (say $10-$15), you get 2 different results:

1) You C-bet, and your opponents fold.
2) You C-bet, and your opponent(s) push. You have a chance to get away since you haven't priced yourself in.

With 1), you've risked less and won the same amount, and with 2), you've bet small enough to get away from an unfavourable situation.

Why are we betting big if we are a dog to villain's range?

because you are barley a dog, so you are 5% behind so if you run this hand 1000 times you will end up down, I know we agree on that.

the thing is you are going to get people to fold enough to make up for that 5% difference. so you will at least break even on it if not a little ahead but Im also a very very aggresive player. I play a lag style so I play my opponents ALOT.

now lets look at way you played it. You cbet and take it down or you bet a little and fold. This is going to lose you money in long run because the couple times you take it down wont make up for your lost Cbets.

lets run some numbers, your style run 1000 times lets say he fold 20% i think that fair right? so you win 200 hands here for total of $15x200= $3000. now lets see how often u lose the cb bet? 800x$15= $12000 so you lose $9000 assuming there was $15 in pot when u cbet.


my style now same thing I will win $3000 from them folding to my cbet. I dont even need to run the numbers on how much I win in lose from running hand its basicly 50/50 couple precent points isnt going to equal 3k so I will break even if not come up a little up beats down 9k.

 

[ChuckTs]

Ahh...by this:

Now with betting smaller (say $10-$15), you get 2 different results:

1) You C-bet, and your opponents fold.
2) You C-bet, and your opponent(s) push. You have a chance to get away since you haven't priced yourself in.

...I didn't mean I would be folding %100 of the time if I meet resistance. All I meant by betting enough to get away from the hand was that if I have a strong read that he's got a jack, then I can dump it....

errr....I've now realized that it won't matter anyways considering the stack sizes. If we were much deeper, I could make that fold...here, I'll be getting my money in regardless...

Good discussion nonetheless. I think we can both agree (now) that we're probably getting our money in with this hand anyways. I actually don't mind betting more; by betting more, it makes sure I won't second guess my hand should my opponent push since I'll be getting better odds...

 

[zebranky]

the problem with the odds...

As usual, the math of pott odds vs. hand odds takes you only so far - we're not playing against predicatble machines here!
You've got the image you want for a good C-bet, you've got a flop that makes it unlikely anyone has hit what they would consider a monster hand, and you've got the best drawing odds.

To worry about being behind by 4% or 5% to a pair is not really the point - especially when all the calculations assume you're going against one hand (when this is a 3-way game at this stage). Run this one out 10,000 against a variety of player styles with possible hands, and I'd bet you come out ahead.

Your bet is perfectly good, and will draw in exactly the callers you want (pocket pairs and single 8's) because they can see it as a C-bet. Its a very rare player who's going to raise you on this flop, so if nothing else, you're controlling the betting, and quite possibly getting a free river card if you need it.

Well played - I don't think I have the guts to play this hand this way, but I still think it was effective and you bet correctly.

 

[stormswa]

well

like I said I never said Chuck played in incorrectly all I was doing is giving a option for a different way to play it. At this level I think they will push more then they will just call. At a higher level im all for playing it exactly the way Chuck played it but at this level I would be thrilled to get it all in.

I dont believe there is one positive way to play a certain hand, never have. I think Chucks way is fine because he is solid enough to play the hand for profit in the long run. As for a novice player though I would suggest they try to get it all in right here. Chuck is most likley solid enough to get away from hand but I doubt any of the villians are laying down pairs.