UTG's raise is $6.25; button's shove raises it another $6.40. This is important because it means action isn't dead yet for UTG, in other words if you flat call he can raise again.
This is definitely a weird situation, having KK and being up against 2 limp/reraisers. The button has a small stack, so besides the table history that you explained there is no getting away from him anyway since he has about 30 BB's. There is no way in the world KK can shy away from a 30 BB stack.
UTG is more worrisome because of both his stats and stack. You can just call and see what he does but you have to have your mind made up now if you're going to go all the way or not, because even if he has something like QQ, JJ or TT I can easily see him shoving behind you at this point, it wouldn't mean at all that he has AA. I don't think there is any way for you to pinpoint him on a hand if you just flat call.
Lets look at again from the beginning for a minute. You've been aggressive lately, and now you're sitting in the SB. The UTG player limped in, the button limped behind, and you raised. UTG now puts in a big reraise. Isolation move against an OOP player? Given the circumstances, with him having position on you, UTG's range is a bit wider for this play; not tremendously wide since he's a bit tightish, but wider than just AA or KK. Jacks, Tens and 9's are all hands that
could limp from UTG. Would they 3bet a raise from one of the blinds?
It's possible. I think I would, particularly with Jacks or Tens if I'm up against an aggressive player. He can put your range for raising a limped pot in the blinds as low as A9 or maybe even A8 and KQ, so all this makes his 3bet to $9, with all those hands mentioned, an automatic move.
What makes this hand really complicated to play is that if you raise you can almost no longer get away from this, because you'll be folding with terrific
odds. If you raise to somewhere around $25 and UTG shoves behind you'll be getting better than 2 to 1. It'll be about $50 to call in a $116 pot. But I think the biggest thing this accomplishes is that it
tells us more about his hand. He's only invested $9 so far and has another $65 left behind. Would he really shove on us with 99-QQ, given the heavy action? If he makes such a move it's going to suggest a stronger chance he has aces, because I think even QQ and AK would start to get worried, not to mention JJ or TT. So we could almost fold at that point, even getting good odds, although it's very debatable because he'd have to have aces in that spot more than 70% of the time, if not we made a mistake. So it still remains complicated.
But the biggest downside of such a play (raising again) is that you lose value against all those hands that are WB, because if we flat call the BTN shove we might get those hands to shove on us, either PF or after the flop if it comes rags. Even tight players tend to overestimate the value of PP's, especially if it's an overpair. In honesty, I think the possibility of that is so good that it outweighs the risk of running into aces.
So if we're going to put UTG on a range of AK-99+, or even AK-TT+, which are all possible hands because of how he percives us, IMO the best play here is to just flat call and hope that UTG shoves, either now or on the flop.
I'm curious to see what others think about this hand, it's a very interesting one to discuss, because you're in position where you have to balance value vs chance to escape at a cheaper price/getting outdrawn. I think there are pros and cons whichever way you go.
, K
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