[50NL FR] TPTK River Value Bet?

[bw07507]

I have been fairly standard TAG w/ lots of steals ~16/12
Villain is 45/0/1.6 over only 20 hands

What are your thoughts on the entire line/how much do u bet on the river??


PokerStars Game #19444341183: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/08/07 - 21:38:58 (ET)
Table 'Bredichina' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: Spectatr ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 2: Dasaki ($26.60 in chips)
Seat 3: CzechoPL ($42.50 in chips)
Seat 4: ChristopherT ($50 in chips)
Seat 5: bw07507 ($50 in chips)
Seat 6: AAbebberAA ($36.95 in chips)
Seat 7: Gav_uk ($53.20 in chips)
Seat 8: MikeLef ($21.65 in chips)
CzechoPL: posts small blind $0.25
ChristopherT: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [As Kd]
BigBadBobNY has returned
bw07507: raises $1.50 to $2
AAbebberAA: folds
Gav_uk: calls $2
MikeLef: folds
Spectatr: calls $2
Dasaki: folds
BigBadBobNY said, "u call a raise with that"
CzechoPL: calls $1.75
ChristopherT: folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts 2s Ac]
CzechoPL: bets $3
BigBadBobNY said, "u r a joke"
bw07507: raises $6 to $9
Gav_uk: folds
Spectatr: folds
CzechoPL: calls $6
*** TURN *** [Ts 2s Ac] [8h]
CzechoPL: checks
bw07507: checks
*** RIVER *** [Ts 2s Ac 8h] [7d]
Gav_uk said, "lol just lol"
CzechoPL: checks
Gav_uk said, "i won i played it right [SIZE=-0]

"
bw07507: ?[/SIZE]

 

[c9h13no3]

I bet the turn against a smack-tard. Spade draws to charge, they'll call with worse.

You can pretty much bet anything up to pot on the river. He might be smart enough to realize the spade draw missed, and call you light. Plus any ace is paying you here.

 

[zachvac]

As played, pot's $26, I bet like $18 on this river just for pure value. We'll get calls from worse aces as well as JJ-KK and it's rare he's checking twice (after we checked turn) with a hand that beats us).

Up to the flop's standard, only question is on the turn. Obviously spade draw is decent part of his range, but the raise flop bet turn line seems so strong that we may even fold out trash aces. This line looks weaker and especially since villain would expect us to bet turn with a good hand to fold out draws, and since villain knows he's shown weakness, he's much more likely to call the river bet.

The only question is can we justify getting it in here, and get him to stack a worse A (AJ/AQ basically). If we're only betting one more street I think I like the line as played (with the river bet of ~$18) but if he's bad enough that we can get 2 streets of value just bet turn and shove river. If he raises turn though I think we can pretty much fold.

 

[ChuckTs]

I'm very happy stacking this flop against a guy that loose. As played I think it's a clear value bet, not sure what the issue is. He's a huge fish and the only hands you're genuinely afraid of are miracle two pair hands.

I dunno, it may be the 6max running through my head here but this looks like a clear stacking to me.

 

[blankoblanco]

why raise flop if you're gonna check behind this innocuous turn? you raise flop to charge draws/get it in and because he'll call with weaker aces. good, good. now continue valuetowning the crap out of his weaker As and charging draws. i just don't get the flop-raise turn-check vs this guy. and of course bet river and make it fairly big

If we're only betting one more street I think I like the line as played (with the river bet of ~$18) but if he's bad enough that we can get 2 streets of value just bet turn and shove river. If he raises turn though I think we can pretty much fold.

he's 45/0. i'm gonna go ahead and say the odds are that he's bad enough

 

[zachvac]

I'm very happy stacking this flop against a guy that loose. As played I think it's a clear value bet, not sure what the issue is. He's a huge fish and the only hands you're genuinely afraid of are miracle two pair hands.

I dunno, it may be the 6max running through my head here but this looks like a clear stacking to me.

So if you bet turn here and villain raises, are you looking to get it in?

 

[ChuckTs]

Basically. The guy's bad enough to have like any ace here and play it like it's the nuts imo. I've also seen guys take this line with a FD that they don't want to let go and think they have some kind of FE here (which apparently they do ).

 

[viking999]

Chuck, why so sure he's stacking light? We only have 20 hands on him. Even so, the stats indicate that while he's been loose calling, he's not very aggressive.

I would bet the turn. If he had more chips, I'd fold to a shove, but I don't think you can get away from it having raised the flop (not criticizing the raise; in fact I'd have raised more). If there weren't many draws, I think checking the turn could be good for pot control, but there are quite a few draws. The turn is the perfect spot to price out the draws.

If called, I'd shove the river for value. If anything he's a calling station, so I'm betting for value the whole way.

As played I'm value betting big (full pot, maybe larger) on the river. This is a great spot to rep a busted draw, having raised the flop and taken the free card on the turn.

 

[ChuckTs]

Usually someone who's 40/0/x after 20 hands is actually a player who's that bad. Even if we knock his vpip down to 30 I think I'm still happy getting it in.

If we take the flush draw out of the picture I think we have a much closer decision, but as it stands I think this is a mandatory turn bet+stackjob.