50nl; AQs for overs,

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Not many hands on villain, but from what I have he's a 37/0/1 and hasn't done anything too crazy yet. Are our outs clean enough here to make the call?

Oh, and the flop raise was because I felt he was weak. At least in my experience, donks from...donks...usually aren't strong. Wouldn't mind input about the flop either.

pokerstars No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (8 handed)

CO ($31.10)
Hero ($69.75)
SB ($18)
BB ($27.75)
UTG ($36.50)
UTG+1 ($19.50)
MP1 ($30.10)
MP2 ($33.10)

Preflop: Hero is Button with Q
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, A
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.
4 folds, CO calls $0.50, Hero raises to $2.25, 2 folds, CO calls $1.75.

Flop: ($5.25) T
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, 2
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, 8
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(2 players)
CO bets $2, Hero raises to $8, CO calls $6.

Turn: ($21.25) J
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(2 players)
CO bets $20.85 (All-In), Hero ...
 
Munchrs

Munchrs

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so you have double bell buster straight with a flush draw. 15 outs plus he may just have one pair but you cant be sure so another 6 outs makes 21 which is about 42% to win. He is very passive. I think i would fold here.

He is just to passive to be shoving any thing worse than top pair imo and probably has a hand like JT which hit 2p on turn. At best you are going to be pretty much flipping unless he is doing a total bluff.
 
skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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Your play was on the flop and didn't work. You really can't call here for odds although you do have a ton of outs. You definitely have 7 pure heart outs, 3 other Ks and probably the 9s. You need about 3:1 to call and are only getting 2:1. He's so passive and fishy I'd suggest waiting for a better spot.
 
tenbob

tenbob

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Thats some very aggressive play against what amounts to a calling station playing at 37/0/1 Chuck. I dont like the flop raise against a player like this, he has clicked a piece here, id just drop on the flop and play for value against a player like this.

You coinflipping here when you dont really need to , dont this here, a better oppertunity will arise (unless someone else does it). I think raise slightly less preflop, and play for value once you hit a flop rather than raise when your likely beat against a player that will probably call you with any piece. IMO stop this HA on the flop.

Errr toughie without hitting Pokerstove and giving a snap decision i fold here, if we thought our ace was good then we might find a call, here i think fold .
 
NineLions

NineLions

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Gotta agree with the thinking so far, although I don't know if I could fold this in the heat of the moment.

His flop bet looked like a probe bet, but he stuck with it. Now he knows you're interested, and as weak as his stats indicate, gotta try to let it go.
 
burntrider

burntrider

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one question, why the bigger raise on the flop, would a raise from his $2 to just $5 be wiser? again, i'm a youning. save 10 BB's. although its now obvious he at least got some kind of silly pair because he's a donk. so a lay down would be the wisest. imo hate chasing all together.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Thats some very aggressive play against what amounts to a calling station playing at 37/0/1 Chuck. I dont like the flop raise against a player like this, he has clicked a piece here, id just drop on the flop and play for value against a player like this.

Fair enough. I think the stats I'm giving you guys might be avg'ed from well after this hand (I'm realizing this after posting), but even against an unknown the flop raise still isn't great. I won't argue with you here.

I'm getting some nice answers, but not many of you have referred to what villain is likely holding aside from munchrs who guesstimates we might be against JT or some other similar hand. I agree it's an ugly spot but what is villain likely holding, and based on that, how clean are our outs?

tbh in the hand I quickly guessed that our 15 flush+straight outs were clean and that our overs should count for at least one out which left me thinking we were drawing to at worst a 1.9:1 draw. We were getting ~2:1 on our money and I called based on that. Still not sure about it though...

one question, why the bigger raise on the flop, would a raise from his $2 to just $5 be wiser?

Well in general, against bad players a bigger raise is scarier to them and they'll fold more. A raise to $5 won't push any draws out, nor will it push most pairs out. It might not even scare off a complete bluff considering the price we're giving.

I won't argue that the flop raise wasn't ideal but I think it has some merit to it.
 
Munchrs

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I'm getting some nice answers, but not many of you have referred to what villain is likely holding aside from munchrs who guesstimates we might be against JT or some other similar hand. I agree it's an ugly spot but what is villain likely holding, and based on that, how clean are our outs?

tbh in the hand I quickly guessed that our 15 flush+straight outs were clean and that our overs should count for at least one out which left me thinking we were drawing to at worst a 1.9:1 draw. We were getting ~2:1 on our money and I called based on that. Still not sure about it though...

IMO Villians Hand is:
1) better than yours right now.
2) 55% of the time better than yours on the river.

IMO you have 15 clean outs and any others are a bonus.

So according to your'e calculations your have a very small edge.

According to my calculations... Why do you want to get into a almost coinflip situation??

I agree with the idea of waiting for a better spot. Villian is a donk, play abc and you will get his money when you hit a set or whatever and can have a 70/30 edge or there abouts.
 
A

alan1983

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Its marginal but i call here.

I guess villains hand could be anything from a strong one on turn that doesnt want cheap draws, or a marginal one on flop that picked up an added draw on turn (something like 109 or 77...). But since its a very close call with our pure outs, and adding in the few extra we could have, i call.
 
Tygran

Tygran

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The obvious guesses would be TJ, 88, 22, JJ. Less likely, AT, AJ. I don't think he has an overpair.

If he has anything else he would be doing something "crazy".

Players this passive tend to bet their really good hands hard (and only their really good hands) so my first guess is TJ here.


Whatever he has, we can be pretty sure it's better than AQ and probably better than a single pair. I'd muck this here even with all those outs.
 
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skoldpadda

skoldpadda

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My range: 8s, 10s, Js, 10J, over pairs. Based on his passive stats I don't see him simply having a draw here. Based on the non-re-raise on the flop, I'm inclined to think JJ or possibly 10J, or he is afraid of the flush draw and in a panic goes all-in.
 
tenbob

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I still think that raising the flop put us in a terrible postition. Ideal is to float the flop and shove the turn with a little FE and lots of outs to a nut hand.

What did he have Chuck ?
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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If he has anything else he would be doing something "crazy".

Well these are micro limits; craziness should be expected :)

;)

I still think that raising the flop put us in a terrible postition.

Yeah I still agree that raising wasn't the best play - whether we look at it in the moment given the info we knew, or looking at it if we know villain's hand. I had obv planned on checking that turn, but he shoved quicker than I could finish thinking about it :/

Ideal is to float the flop and shove the turn with a little FE and lots of outs to a nut hand.

Well that's the ideal play knowing we picked up 15+ outs on the turn, but of course we don't know that on the flop...but again I still agree that the flop play given what we knew was bad.

What did he have Chuck ?

Well I tanked and finally called. My reasoning (which was very possibly incorrect) was that I had 15 clean outs for the straight+flush draw, and that my overs were worth enough to bring the 2.1:1 down enough to make the call given 2:1 pot odds. He showed J9, and I rivered an ace to take it down.

I'm still not sure what kind of range we should be putting him on; I think I agree that sets, JT and other two pairs should be included, as well as some weird pair + flush draw combos and J9 type hands...still an odd play for a TA=1 player...
 
Tygran

Tygran

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Not many hands on villain, but from what I have he's a 37/0/1 and hasn't done anything too crazy yet.
hence the "that would be crazy" comment. :D

But yes..craziness is to be expected at these limits lol.
 
NineLions

NineLions

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J9 is weaker than I would have put someone with those stats on. Unless he was recent to the table and you had been very active since he sat down.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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hence the "that would be crazy" comment. :D

But yes..craziness is to be expected at these limits lol.

hahah caught with my pants down...you get what I meant though :p

We obviously can't bank on him having hands as weak as J9 here, but I think they should definitely be considered, as well as pure bluffs and semibluffs...
 
Tygran

Tygran

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Actually J9 is one hand I thought about for this... Alot of donkey's at this level think a pair (esp top pair) + any type of draw = the nuts and will play it that way.

This is doubly true if they think you are pushing them around.
 
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