[50NL 6max] QQ Value Shove River?

B

bw07507

Legend
Joined
Jan 8, 2007
Total posts
2,219
Can I shove this for value or should I be checking behind here??
Ive played with villain before, he is 23/18/4 over ~100 hands
This is only the 4th hand at the table, so I have no image, but this guy seems decent so if he has stats on me, Im around a 20/16/2.5

Tried to get him to commit on the turn, but he didnt bite, making me think he might have a set here, but then he checks the river and the board is double paired making a set less likely.


pokerstars GAME #16651233369: HOLD'EM NO LIMIT ($0.25/$0.50) - 2008/04/11 - 14:02:33 (ET)
Table 'Nausikaa III' 6-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: kaoz12345678 ($49.50 in chips)
Seat 2: bw07507 ($54.70 in chips)
Seat 3: Pat Poker 01 ($9.70 in chips)
Seat 4: Haens28 ($49 in chips)
Seat 5: p4see ($24.60 in chips)
Seat 6: Moolhuizinov ($79.55 in chips)
Haens28: posts small blind $0.25
p4see: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bw07507 [Qd Qc]
Moolhuizinov: folds
kaoz12345678: folds
bw07507: raises $1.50 to $2
Pat Poker 01: folds
Haens28: calls $1.75
p4see: folds
*** FLOP *** [6d 2c 4s]
Haens28: checks
bw07507: bets $3
Haens28: raises $7 to $10
bw07507: calls $7
*** TURN *** [6d 2c 4s] [4d]
Haens28: checks
bw07507: bets $12
Haens28: calls $12
*** RIVER *** [6d 2c 4s 4d] [2h]
Haens28: checks
bw07507: ?
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
Joined
Jan 2, 2007
Total posts
8,819
This looks like an overpair smaller than yours. The only hand you're realistically afraid of him having is 66. I bet this to valuetown 77-JJ. Not sure if shoving is the right bet size though. I'd keep it to about 12-16ish, and offer hands like JJ & TT better pot odds. It'll be really hard for them to call your strong betting on all streets, and then a shove on the river.

If you get raised, obviously we vomit & call and expect to see quads or a boat. Maybe A4 or something silly.

Villain's range is looking like 22-TT. So he's either holding a monster, or a random pair. And I doubt a monster checks the river to you.
 
Last edited:
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

Legend
Joined
Feb 2, 2005
Total posts
13,642
ya I think this is a weak overpair most of the time too. I think occasionally it will be a busted draw as well, but this is definitely a value shove to me. 66 is a definite concern and I wouldn't doubt he would play it this way, but by pure probability a worse overpair is just more likely.

On a side note, monsters RARELY check on the river. Check-raising for value on the river is a very rare thing to see and when you're checked to you can often valuetown a lot of hands. QQ definitely falls in that category imo.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

I'm sweet enough!
Joined
Feb 18, 2007
Total posts
5,478
This is dedfinately value bet city here. Shove or donk bet here?.... we want a call for sure, I think we need to have him call, so I would put in a little sweatener bet as per c9h $12 ish. Shoving may get him to fold 77-99.
 
blankoblanco

blankoblanco

plays poker on hard mode
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May 16, 2006
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6,129
bet a bit more on the turn. and yeah, value bet now whatever you think he'll call with like 77
 
SavagePenguin

SavagePenguin

Put the win in penguin
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Jul 10, 2007
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I think a shove is bad. You don't want to scare him off.

I'd bet $16.70, or whatever would leave you with an even $10 left in your stack. He was willing to call $12 last time, so a little more into a bigger pot should be callable.

Plus, leaving yourself with an even $10 looks suspicious, like you're trying to leave yourself something in case you lose.
 
Last edited:
P

pkrook

Rock Star
Joined
Sep 15, 2007
Total posts
211
sry but...

u need to shove with the set on the river... gl!
 
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