[50nl 6max] Nut FD vs overbet push from fish

ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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Feb 2, 2005
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poker stars, $0.25/$0.50 NL Hold'em Cash Game, 6 Players
LeggoPoker.com - Hand History Converter

UTG: $53.60
Hero (MP): $49.25
CO: $34.25
BTN: $91.95
SB: $50.25
BB: $49.25

Pre-Flop: 4
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A
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dealt to Hero (MP)
UTG folds, Hero raises to $1.75, CO calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 9
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T
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7
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(2 Players)
Hero bets $3, CO raises to $32.50 and is All-In, Hero ...

Villain is very loose and fairly aggressive over a very small sample (<15 hands). I've been pretty aggressive myself at like 30/30 or something.

What type of range are we looking at?
 
zachvac

zachvac

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Sep 14, 2007
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Personally I think range is irrelevant here. We have to assume that at best we have 9 flush outs plus the 3 A outs, so 12 which is just under 45%. When there's a lot of money in the pot this is favorable because of odds, but with the odds we get we need to be 43% or better. So calling is at best break even with the rake. Obviously we could be up against JQc or something, but I think overpairs and 2-pair or sets are way more common here. With the 2-pair/set hands we only have the 9 outs and with sets even when we hit these he has a redraw to a boat. So aside from flat out bluffs we're getting barely the odds to call and with rake it's probably a bad call. Add the fact that he could be doing this with some other hands like 2 pairs and sets and I think it's a standard fold.
 
Munchrs

Munchrs

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Seeing as though youve been super aggro, if villian is smart and noticed this then his range is massive. he could be slow playing KK/AA or be on hands like sc's.

IMO his most likely range here is combo draw/set/2p/Overpair.

Even with top pair, as zach said, we are at best 45%.

The more i look at it the more i like folding.

Also on a side note. With draws you usually bet them for fold equity, you now have zero fold equity so you are only playing your outs which may not all be live.
 
Jagsti

Jagsti

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Feb 18, 2007
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I usually call this, but I have just put some ranges into stove and I think were crushed against his range, see what you think about my range here.

99-jj, 77, A9-AT, J8, 68, 7t, 79, t9 plus some other random flush stuff. It comes out at something like we have 35% equity, put in some mega donkey stuff like shoving middle pair etc might give us a bit more.. Given this, in hindsight, INSTAFOLD.

If you had a read on villain ie he shoves draws then INSTACALL :D.
 
S

switch0723

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Sep 2, 2007
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I prefer the fold for the reasons zach stated but i would have played the hand differently.

I would have prefered to see you check the flop because it serves you 2 purposes. Firstly you may get to peel off a free card to catch your flush. If not, you have the opportunity to check/raise, which i would prefer to see here. That way we build the pot up and have fold equity to take hte pot down after our re raise.
 
ChuckTs

ChuckTs

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13,642
Yeah I think this is a fold. As you guys said we really can't count anything more than our flush outs and we're obviously not getting odds to draw. I did call anyways :eek: and he showed K8h which hit.
 
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