$500 NL HE Full Ring: $500 NL HE Full Ring: Tough river in deep stacked cash against a reg

[jfkingchan]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$2/$5

Table Format

Full (8-10 seats)

Currency

$

Live $2/$5 game. Villain is a tough reg on the hero's left. Hero just picked off his bluff with a weak top pair 30 minutes ago when Villain raised pf and bet 3 all streets.

Hero (BB): ~$2800
Villain(Straddle): ~$4000

Villain straddled to $10
Folded to button who limped in.
Hero in BB raised to $45 with AsKh. Villain and Button called. 3 ways to the flop

Flop Kd 2s 4d. Hero c bet $90, Villain called.

Turn 8s, double flush board. Hero continued with a $200 bet and Villian called as well.

River off suit 5. Both flush draw missed. Normally Hero would take a check call line, but Hero decided to bet out $450, kind of a value/blockish bet to target weaker Kings, as well as non believing mid pairs. Also didn't want to check and underrepresent the strength of the hand and face an overbet by the opponent.

Villain tanked for 1 minute and shoved. Hero had around 2k left. ?????

Obviously not getting the best odds to call off with one pair. However, there weren't a lot of hands that the Villain would take this line with, especially on the river. Ad3d or maybe 6d7d(less likely) were probably the most logical hands, calling in position with a combo draw and hoping to hit and stake the hero with such deep stacks. Not entirely sure if a set of 4s or even a set of 2s would take this line either. On the other hand, Hero definitely has the range advantage here, being the preflop aggressor oop, with all the Aces, AKs, and set of Kings at this spot. Being able to shove overpot on the river in position, facing a lot of aggression from the pf raiser, seem quite strong to me. Although on the other hand there arent a lot of value hands that Villain could have either.

For bluffs, I guess small suited Ace or 3d5d make sense. I believe the Villain would likely 3bet maybe A10, AJ and AQ from the straddle preflop. Not sure if our history played a part in this hand too, although I opt against stacking off so many bbs on a single pair at the end and folded.

Any thoughts and kind insights would be much appreciated!







Villain and button both called.

Flop

 

[Station_Master]

It looks like you bet about 2/3rd pot on each street, so he must have something on the flop to call the big bet. I would expect 76 to fold other than 76dd. He should be calling Kx, pocket pairs and diamond draws mostly. Possibly some slowplayed sets.

On the turn he probably folds out stuff like 55. He could still be slow playing a set or two pair e.g
K4, but many villains would raise due to two flush draws. What's your read on villain, would he raise sets, 2pair etc on turn and what about flush draws would he raise those too?

The shove on the river is wierd as many strong hands might have raised previously and only really 76dd , A3dd and K5s get there, so 4 combos. But if he does slow play sets/ 2pair then there are lots of other poss combos (9 sets, various Kxs). On the other hand there arent tons of logical bluffs, really just missed diamonds but most regs know these arent the best bluff raises blocking the auto folds. He could also have something like KJ or KQ that he thinks is no good now and so turns into a bluff.

You need to be right about 40% of the time to make the call, I think it's pretty close so I wouldn't get too upset if you made the 'wrong' decision. I probably fold, but as I say its close and really depends on what you think of villain and how he perceives you. Your hand looks alot like AK or AA, would he expect you to fold if he bluffed? Or is he expecting you to station him?

 

[puzzlefish]

It's that polarizing river jam again, but this time all you have to go on is TPTK. I don't think you have enough info on your villain to make a good read if all you can say is he is a tough reg and bluffed once and got caught. Has he river shoved in other spots? In general I don't like calling while putting my entire stack on the line with TPTK when there are some draws completed on the river. There are just way better spots to do this, but as Station Master said calling won't be a big error here. I just don't think it's worth finding out.