$500 Max at Borgata AC - KK vs Broadway Board

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red_dawn_28

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2/5 game at Borgata in AC 7 handed. I will recreate the HH as best I can. I was in MP ($600 behind) with Kc, Ks. UTG (a relatively solid young Asian guy, $300 behind) raises to $20 (about the standard raise) and I raise to $60. Folds back around to villain who calls. Flop is T, J, Q with 2 clubs. He bets out $60. What to do here? Smooth call and hope for an A, 9 or blank? Raise to see where we are?

Obviously a distinct possibility is for him to have a set of any of the board cards (I’m 33% to win). Vs. AA I’m 26% to win. He could also have AK and I’m basically dead (6% to win/12% tie) although I do realize that is less likely given I have two of the Cowboys.

Thoughts?

Thanks
Red Dawn
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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How I played this hand would really depend on reads of the other player. If you think he has the ability to lay down hands like QJ, JT, AQ and possibly TT then I would really consider bluffing at this pot, and just sticking him all in here. Otherwise just call, and hope the turn brings happy. :) He doesn't really have a big enough stack to make the kind of moves you'd like to make on this hand.
 
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switch0723

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just check call it down, since you will have position on him so i doubt he will bet too big, if he does id lay it down and look for a better situation
 
c9h13no3

c9h13no3

Is drawing with AK
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I don't like checking it down here for the simple reason that the pot is $180, and villan only has $180 left behind... He's giving us decent (but not great) odds to call and try to hit our straight on the turn. However, if we just smooth call here, we can probably expect an all in/big bet on the turn (because he's pot committed). By just smooth calling, we put him in the driver seat, and I doubt we can call a shove on the turn if it comes a blank. That's a perfectly fine way to play it if you think he's a calling station/respect his UTG raise, and you don't think you can fold away two pairs/big draws.

The most likely hands in his range that have us beat are QJ, TT, JJ, and AK. I think QQ+ would shove preflop. He might also bet marginal hands like a combo draw this way (AcQc, ect.) If he has the ability to lay down good but not great hands like these, then shoving accomplishes two things for us.

1) It folds out some hands we are beat by/coinflipping with.
2) It ensures that we see both the turn & the river and we get our money in with better odds to beat JJ, QQ than if we call, and get bet into on a blank turn.

The problem with raising to see where we're at, is that if we raise to say, 180$, we'd be essentially raising him all in (he'd have 60$ left). So we might as well use our whole stack and get as much folding equity as we can.

So if you think the bet looks weak, and he's fairly scared of losing his short stack, then put him all in. But if he's made some good laydowns already in this session, or has been a calling station, then I'd smooth call and hope he slows down on the turn.
 
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