Yeah, your range is pretty close imho. 2 things.
1) Even though it's only 28 hands, this guy is probably a typical somewhat tighter full ring player. So his range to the river is going to be pretty transparent. A lot of these guys IF they did hit something big are betting the river. They aren't taking the chance that their opponent is checking behind, because it's FR, and players will too often.
2) It's full ring.
3) It's small stakes.
Hence... ranges get very transparent. When I assign a range, I'm never saying someone will always 4-bet QQ/JJ for example. Never get into thinking like that. Even if the exact opponent 4-bets QQ/JJ 95% of the time, you don't know if this is the 5% when they don't. You should discount some hands you think are unlikely to be in your opponents range, but don't complete remove them ever.
Assigning ranges isn't an exact science as you know. You don't need to enter every single draw for your opponent, just a few that make sense. The looser your opponent, the more we have of course. So just using this hand as an example, here's the value calling range of my opponent.
This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD
Poker HUD & Database
Board: 4d 5d 4s 2d 3h
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
33.9286% 32.1429% 1.7857% [ AA(50),AKs(100), ADQD(100), ADKC(100), ADKH(100), ADKS(100), TT-KK(100), 9D8D(100) ]
66.0714% 64.2857% 1.7857% [ KdKc ]
Notice I have AA in there, as well as a couple of made hand flushes. Since this opponent is in MP and called an UTG open, we should be removing a lot of suited connectors, that's why I only have one listed. It's also a 3-bet pot, so we have 4 factors that indicate our opponent will likely have a tighter range here. 1) They already have somewhat tight stats (small sample), 2) they called an UTG open. 3) It's full ring 4) it's a 3-bet pot.
Likely range our opponent will have by river:
This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD
Poker HUD & Database
Board: 4d 5d 4s 2d 3h
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
41.3462% 40.3846% 0.9615% [ AA(50),AKs(100), ADQD(100), ADKC(100), ADKH(100), ADKS(100), 88-KK(100), AQo(100), JDTD(100) ]
58.6538% 57.6923% 0.9615% [ KdKc ]
It's a clear river value bet.
Look how many draws I'd need to add to say it's not a river value bet.
This hand driven to you directly from DriveHUD
Poker HUD & Database
Board: 4d 5d 4s 2d 3h
Equity Win Tie Hand Range
51.9608% 50.9804% 0.9804% [ AA(50),AKs(100), ADQD(100), ADJD(100), ADKC(100), ADKH(100), ADKS(100), 99-KK(100), KDQD(100), AQo(100), QDJD(100), JDTD(100), TD9D(100), 9D8D(100), 8D7D(100) ]
48.0392% 47.0588% 0.9804% [ KdKc ]
It's just not realistic.
If you want to really crush these stakes, then you need to be betting every time you have a clear VB that can be called be a worse range.
).