Well I just put 2 and 2 together, and said you made a reference to it, which you do, thats all....lol
So if we min raise turn and not raise flop we get to showdown cheaper? I dont think so!!
Raising flop outweighs raising turn if we want to get to s/d cheaper.
Lets say we raise flop to $8,
He 3 bets- easy fold. us raising flop obv has next to no FE, and if he 3bs we dont get to SD. range villain 3bs OTF > range villain 3bs OTT
He flats- whether we make our straight our not on turn, the turn will go c/c..Or at least it should as we are being perceived weak(which will give him a chance to bluff rivers as youve said hes agg, but in fact hes prob only agg pre) and also the amount of times villain will have KJ we can just call river bets, (minimizing our losses with the worse straight.)
Now if we call flop and min raise turn as youve suggested, we raise turn to $15..
If he 3 bets- we have to fold.
If he flats- the river will go c/c by all his 2 pair hands that we now beat.
But he will donk if not 3 bet the turn will all his houses and presuming trips(on river,which would be an easy b/f situation), in which we all fold to.
So by raising flop we 'lose' $8,
by raising turn we 'lose' $18.50
As played we 'lose' $11, if we dont count the spew shove and just c/c,fold rivers...
So unless you dont like money, then raising flop to get to showdown, is cheaper than raising turn...
if we raise flop and he 3bs, we wont get to SD
if we flat flop then minraise turn, there is only 1 hand he can shove and thats KJ. presuming he flats, he will almost never donk river (since the only hand that makes sense to donk river with if it bricks is KJ, and thats obv being raised OTT)
this gets us to SD for $15 postflop
if we raise flop to suggested $8, the incredibly vast majority of the time he raises or flats, and almost never folds.
turn always goes ch/ch
pot OTR is $21.50 and like 75% of his value range (2ps, overpairs, sets) obviously leads big, with KQ/AQ probably being the only hands he c/c's.
If he somehow has a hand like AK/Jx, these are bluffing river too.
i dunno, im pretty sure were facing a river bet that often if we only raise flop that it becomes more expensive.