# \$50 NL HE 6-max: How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw.

A

#### ArcaneHuman

##### Rising Star
Bronze Level
Game
Hold'em
Game Format
No Limit
Stakes
\$.25/\$.50
Table Format
6-max (6 seats)
Currency
\$
Hello everyone. I'm starting to try to think more in terms of equity and pot odds and such and a scenario came up for me related to this. I can really use some advice about what to analyze mathematically in this kind of situation. In other words... if i had enough time, i could sit there and figure out all kinds of things. but what are the most important things to use poker math for here and how do i perform the calculations?

The title of this post says it all. "How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw".

In this particular hand, I got all my chips in the middle by the river after the right card came and I won this hand but obviously i'm not going to hit my draw every time. So i'm looking to use mathematics to see if this was a good play or if my bet sizing is a bit too hopeful.

Hero has As Jd in the Big Blind
MP villain limps 1bb
CO limps 1bb
SB villain limps 1bb
Hero raises to 4bb (probably should have raised a bit higher with so many limpers honestly)
MP folds
CO and SB call
(pot 13 bb)

Flop Comes... 6s 10s 9s
This gives hero approximately 36% chance to hit the nut flush.

Hero raises to 7bb
CO villain calls
SB villain calls
(pot 34 bb)

Turn... i don't remember the exact card but it was a total brick
Chance of hitting the draw is now at ~18%

Hero raises 14bb (41% of the pot with only an 18 percent chance at hitting the draw) good move? bad move? Of course... there's implied odds though.
CO calls
SB folds
(pot 52 bb)

i don't think the next street (river) is very important for this hand analysis but the card was the king of spades. For me this was a pretty standard pot size push.

So obviously sometimes this play will work and sometimes it won't but how do i think about this in terms of poker math to make sure i'm winning in the long run, and hopefully to be able to figure out how much i am making over the long run.

A

#### ArcaneHuman

##### Rising Star
Bronze Level
dunno if everyone can see this post

#### georgi krastev

##### Legendary Donk-Fish
Loyaler
dunno if everyone can see this post
It's visible, but probably the mathematicians are on vacation...

S

#### Station_Master

##### Legend
Platinum Level
It's ok to bluff with the nut flush draw but pre you need to raise bigger and when it's a 4 to flush remember your implied odds are not great. I think your line is fine, but also ok to check turn v 2 opponents

#### pentazepam

##### Legend
Platinum Level
You must also calculate what the chances are for a fold.

If you are up against calling stations you obviously cut down on the semi-bluffing unless you have a very good combo-draw or something similar.

#### 50centOverdraft

##### Rising Star
Bronze Level
Some guys will only let you bluff once

#### eetenor

##### Legend
Platinum Level
Hello everyone. I'm starting to try to think more in terms of equity and pot odds and such and a scenario came up for me related to this. I can really use some advice about what to analyze mathematically in this kind of situation. In other words... if i had enough time, i could sit there and figure out all kinds of things. but what are the most important things to use poker math for here and how do i perform the calculations?

The title of this post says it all. "How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw".

In this particular hand, I got all my chips in the middle by the river after the right card came and I won this hand but obviously i'm not going to hit my draw every time. So i'm looking to use mathematics to see if this was a good play or if my bet sizing is a bit too hopeful.

Hero has As Jd in the Big Blind
MP villain limps 1bb
CO limps 1bb
SB villain limps 1bb
Hero raises to 4bb (probably should have raised a bit higher with so many limpers honestly)
MP folds
CO and SB call
(pot 13 bb)

Flop Comes... 6s 10s 9s
This gives hero approximately 36% chance to hit the nut flush.

Hero raises to 7bb
CO villain calls
SB villain calls
(pot 34 bb)

Turn... i don't remember the exact card but it was a total brick
Chance of hitting the draw is now at ~18%

Hero raises 14bb (41% of the pot with only an 18 percent chance at hitting the draw) good move? bad move? Of course... there's implied odds though.
CO calls
SB folds
(pot 52 bb)

i don't think the next street (river) is very important for this hand analysis but the card was the king of spades. For me this was a pretty standard pot size push.

So obviously sometimes this play will work and sometimes it won't but how do i think about this in terms of poker math to make sure i'm winning in the long run, and hopefully to be able to figure out how much i am making over the long run.
The math is complex in this spot with regards to Villains actions- vs passive players 100bb deep it is fine to build a pot on flop and turn as we do not have to call off many turn shoves that are balanced.

How the V play really does dictate how profitable this action is.
It also dictates how much we want to pot control by making smaller bets 25% pot 33% when we bet- because our V can pay us off if we make our hand on later streets.

Full Flush Poker