$50 NL HE 6-max: How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw.

[ArcaneHuman]

Game

Hold'em

Game Format

No Limit

Stakes

$.25/$.50

Table Format

6-max (6 seats)

Currency

$

Hello everyone. I'm starting to try to think more in terms of equity and pot odds and such and a scenario came up for me related to this. I can really use some advice about what to analyze mathematically in this kind of situation. In other words... if i had enough time, i could sit there and figure out all kinds of things. but what are the most important things to use poker math for here and how do i perform the calculations?

The title of this post says it all. "How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw".

In this particular hand, I got all my chips in the middle by the river after the right card came and I won this hand but obviously i'm not going to hit my draw every time. So i'm looking to use mathematics to see if this was a good play or if my bet sizing is a bit too hopeful.

Stacks about 100 bb

Hero has As Jd in the Big Blind
MP villain limps 1bb
CO limps 1bb
SB villain limps 1bb
Hero raises to 4bb (probably should have raised a bit higher with so many limpers honestly)
MP folds
CO and SB call
(pot 13 bb)

Flop Comes... 6s 10s 9s
This gives hero approximately 36% chance to hit the nut flush.

Hero raises to 7bb
CO villain calls
SB villain calls
(pot 34 bb)

Turn... i don't remember the exact card but it was a total brick
Chance of hitting the draw is now at ~18%

Hero raises 14bb (41% of the pot with only an 18 percent chance at hitting the draw) good move? bad move? Of course... there's implied odds though.
CO calls
SB folds
(pot 52 bb)

i don't think the next street (river) is very important for this hand analysis but the card was the king of spades. For me this was a pretty standard pot size push.

So obviously sometimes this play will work and sometimes it won't but how do i think about this in terms of poker math to make sure i'm winning in the long run, and hopefully to be able to figure out how much i am making over the long run.

 

[ArcaneHuman]

dunno if everyone can see this post

 

[georgi krastev]

dunno if everyone can see this post

It's visible, but probably the mathematicians are on vacation...

 

[Station_Master]

It's ok to bluff with the nut flush draw but pre you need to raise bigger and when it's a 4 to flush remember your implied odds are not great. I think your line is fine, but also ok to check turn v 2 opponents

 

[pentazepam]

You must also calculate what the chances are for a fold.

If you are up against calling stations you obviously cut down on the semi-bluffing unless you have a very good combo-draw or something similar.

 

[50centOverdraft]

Some guys will only let you bluff once

 

[eetenor]

Hello everyone. I'm starting to try to think more in terms of equity and pot odds and such and a scenario came up for me related to this. I can really use some advice about what to analyze mathematically in this kind of situation. In other words... if i had enough time, i could sit there and figure out all kinds of things. but what are the most important things to use poker math for here and how do i perform the calculations?

The title of this post says it all. "How to think mathematically about building a pot for the nut flush draw".

In this particular hand, I got all my chips in the middle by the river after the right card came and I won this hand but obviously i'm not going to hit my draw every time. So i'm looking to use mathematics to see if this was a good play or if my bet sizing is a bit too hopeful.

Stacks about 100 bb

Hero has As Jd in the Big Blind
MP villain limps 1bb
CO limps 1bb
SB villain limps 1bb
Hero raises to 4bb (probably should have raised a bit higher with so many limpers honestly)
MP folds
CO and SB call
(pot 13 bb)

Flop Comes... 6s 10s 9s
This gives hero approximately 36% chance to hit the nut flush.

Hero raises to 7bb
CO villain calls
SB villain calls
(pot 34 bb)

Turn... i don't remember the exact card but it was a total brick
Chance of hitting the draw is now at ~18%

Hero raises 14bb (41% of the pot with only an 18 percent chance at hitting the draw) good move? bad move? Of course... there's implied odds though.
CO calls
SB folds
(pot 52 bb)

i don't think the next street (river) is very important for this hand analysis but the card was the king of spades. For me this was a pretty standard pot size push.

So obviously sometimes this play will work and sometimes it won't but how do i think about this in terms of poker math to make sure i'm winning in the long run, and hopefully to be able to figure out how much i am making over the long run.

The math is complex in this spot with regards to Villains actions- vs passive players 100bb deep it is fine to build a pot on flop and turn as we do not have to call off many turn shoves that are balanced.

How the V play really does dictate how profitable this action is.
It also dictates how much we want to pot control by making smaller bets 25% pot 33% when we bet- because our V can pay us off if we make our hand on later streets.