$5 NLHE 6-max: TPGK Facing a River Shove

H

Hermus

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Villian Stats (VPIP/PFR/AF): 40/28/2

pokerstars Zoom, Hold'em No Limit - $0.02/$0.05 - 6 players
Replay this hand on CardsChat

UTG: $6.10 (122 bb)
MP: $2.25 (45 bb)
CO: $5.43 (109 bb)
BU (Hero): $5.13 (103 bb)
SB: $5.88 (118 bb)
BB: $4.51 (90 bb)

Pre-Flop: ($0.07) Hero is BTN with Q A
UTG raises to $0.15, 2 players fold, Hero 3-bets to $0.45, 2 players fold, UTG calls $0.30

Flop: ($0.97) T A 4 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $0.31, UTG calls $0.31

Turn: ($1.59) 9 (2 players)
UTG checks, Hero bets $1.01, UTG calls $1.01

River: ($3.61) 9 (2 players)
UTG bets $4.33 (all-in), BU (Hero)?

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Villain is a recreational player that opens wide, continues wide against 3-bets, rarely 4-bets, and rarely folds post-flop. I bet the flop and turn for value, but he snap shoves on me after the second nine comes in on the river. I guess this is a 100% fold against this player type, but villain's line still confuses me. What do you think?
 
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feisas7991

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I dont really understand what we analyzing there. I would snap call river and highfive my friends.
He reps like 9x of clubs, thats basically it.
Hope this helps and Good Luck!
 
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gustav197poker

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The vast majority of the time you must 3-bet with AQo vs. a UTG player. The only case where it has any merit to call preflop is when you think V is a nitty. I also like the size you chose to 3-bet. Unless the blinds are very sticky players, your raise is enough for them to fold speculative hands that are not in good shape here.
On the flop you can bet bigger for value. If your opponent has a worse hand like AJ he could call. If V is very passive and does not have fold equity you will only be behind AK, as a set is going to raise on this flop, because it will have an advantage in the range.
On the turn you can continue with another barrel when you think your opponent has not reduced his hands on the flop. You could also check to take advantage of the position and induce V to bluff the river.
How the turn was played when V decides to lead you need to analyze his continuation of range on the turn. With what hands do you think the villain called and if there are still bluffs available.
If you think V is too passive he should have at least AK to bluff, which seems unlikely given the texture of the board. Seems more likely some flush combinations like: KQ; KJ; KT.
Greetings.
 
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fundiver199

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Preflop
Fine

Flop
If your read is, he never fold, then why bet so small? You can bet twice as much as still get called by pretty much the same range. You dont need to use solver approved GTO type sizing against someone, who have no idea, what his correct ranges are supposed to be.

Turn
Now the flushdraw came in, and AT, T9, TT also came in, so your hand is now dramatically worse, than it was on the flop. Yet now you put the hammer down with a much larger bet. This is very backwards. Against this player type you need to play in a very straight forward way. Bet relatively large, when you have a very good hand and bet small or check, when you have a medium strong showdown value hand, like you do now. If he just made a flush, you are drawing dead, so now is not the time to bloat the pot. I typically check back this turn, especially when I dont hold a club in my hand.

River
Strange line by opponent, but what are his bluffs? Is he really getting to the river with a gutshot draw like KQ and then turning it into a bluff like this? Your hand was very weak to even bet the turn, so its completely reasonable to fold it now, when you are facing an overbet. You have better hands to call with like a flush or a boat. If you check back turn, you dont see the river like this, and you can mostly look to catch a bluff or even a worse hand betting for value.
 
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300HPGOD

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I think depending on the villains in the blind and how often UTG is opening we can call or 3 bet here. 3 betting is probably better but Ill break from the crowd a bit and say as long as the blinds are tight and not aggressive then calling is not bad.

On the flop as played we get a good flop where there are a lot of hands that we are beating but will still call a bet here. I see no reason to go small here. The bet size you made it gives villain a little over 4 to 1 pot odds which is their odds of hitting a flush draw on the next card. I think your bet here should be much larger as draws will still call, worse Axs will still call and who knows, maybe even worse calls. Bet in the neighborhood of at least 60 cents here but you can larger and still get called.

On the turn as played it may be the worst card in the deck outside of the J of clubs (yes j of clubs gives us a gutter but that might not matter with flush out there plus AJ would be ahead now). With a 10 and 9 on the board it really only leaves AJ as the only worse Ace that would open UTG, call a 3x raise pre, call flop and then also call turn if we were to bet. I dont think A8 with no clubs or even 8 of clubs would play that way. This now leaves us in a spot where villain called one street with QQ or JJ, has AJ, or we are beat. I hate giving villain a free run at another club but checking back may be best. If we were to bet I like going small (about 1/3rd ish) for two reasons. One if we get raised Im out of there and we at least lose less. Secondly, if I had the flush I would not be bombing this pot as I would want villain to stick around and I would assume if I had the flush then they didnt. Therefore if we are to bet I like small bet that looks more like a bet of strength where I am trying to get villain to make a crying call. Also if villain does have a big hand and sees a small bet they may think they have to raise their strong hands here to juice the pot and then we at least avoid a tough river decision.

On the river when they call twice and then bomb it, its a tough spot. Bluffs could play this way and would bet this way if it was a bluff but I think this is a strong hand here and we can safely fold. I do doubt A10 plays this way and I would think flushes may back off a little due to the board pairing but I think we are beat here. Its a fold where you will get bluffed sometimes but imo mostly you will be running into it with a call here.
 
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fundiver199

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Just want to add, that the value hand, which makes the most sense for Villain to have here, is a boat. It would be weird for a flush to play passive on the turn and then aggressive on the river, when the board has paired. It would also be really loose for him to call the preflop 3-bet and the flop C-bet with any hand containing a naked 9 like K9 or 98, when he cant have 9X of clubs, since 9c is on the board. So I dont think, he have a lot of trips here.

It would however make sense for him to play this way with a boat. On the turn he is concerned with the flush, so he just check-call, but when the board pair on the river, he dont want to risk letting Hero check behind with a hand, that might have called. So he is repping kind of thin, but by betting large on the turn Hero has if anything slightly overrepped his hand. So it would require a lot of balls for him to actually risk his entire stack on a river bluff in a 3-bet pot on a A high board, where Hero can have all the AK/AQ in the world.

As a general rule for stakes like 5NL or 10NL, if you call off an entire stack on the river with top pair, you are probably getting taken to value town far more often, than you are getting shown a bluff. Calling in spots like this also drive up variance, so if you make it your default to fold, you will probably find life at the poker tables more profitable and also less tilting.
 
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feisas7991

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Preflop
Fine

Flop
If your read is, he never fold, then why bet so small? You can bet twice as much as still get called by pretty much the same range. You dont need to use solver approved GTO type sizing against someone, who have no idea, what his correct ranges are supposed to be.

Turn
Now the flushdraw came in, and AT, T9, TT also came in, so your hand is now dramatically worse, than it was on the flop. Yet now you put the hammer down with a much larger bet. This is very backwards. Against this player type you need to play in a very straight forward way. Bet relatively large, when you have a very good hand and bet small or check, when you have a medium strong showdown value hand, like you do now. If he just made a flush, you are drawing dead, so now is not the time to bloat the pot. I typically check back this turn, especially when I dont hold a club in my hand.

River
Strange line by opponent, but what are his bluffs? Is he really getting to the river with a gutshot draw like KQ and then turning it into a bluff like this? Your hand was very weak to even bet the turn, so its completely reasonable to fold it now, when you are facing an overbet. You have better hands to call with like a flush or a boat. If you check back turn, you dont see the river like this, and you can mostly look to catch a bluff or even a worse hand betting for value.



Hats off to you if you really have figured that player pool has always a boat there, i dont really play cash games. But to say that check is better than bet fold/call on the turn seems mental to me at these stakes (once you figure pattern of value/punts vs bet ott you would start printing insanely there) and most likely one of reason lower stakes players cant climb stakes.
On the river the only few hands that beat us are T9 of diamonds ( if he is absolute whale station)
and 2 combos of A9.

I would assume sets are fast playing rather than call on dynamic boards. . .

Hope this clarifies my point of view and Good Luck!
 
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fundiver199

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Hats off to you if you really have figured that player pool has always a boat there

The value part of Villains range should mostly be boats, but of course he can also have bluffs.

But to say that check is better than bet fold/call on the turn seems mental to me at these stakes (once you figure pattern of value/punts vs bet ott you would start printing insanely there) and most likely one of reason lower stakes players cant climb stakes.

I am pretty sure, a solver would check back this turn with AQ no club near 100% of the time. And then it becomes a question of, how massive calling mistakes, we expect this particular opponent to make. Is he calling our 3-bet out of position and then putting in his entire stack post with hands like A8 or A5? If yes then sure we can go balls to the walls with thin value bets. But if not we should do some pot control, when the turn card was pretty much the second worst in the entire deck for us.

and most likely one of reason lower stakes players cant climb stakes.

If the goal is to climb up stakes, maybe it actually makes sense to learn the more "correct" way to play hands, since at higher stakes we cant expect opponents to make the same massive amounts of calling mistakes, or to never bluff.

On the river the only few hands that beat us are T9 of diamonds ( if he is absolute whale station) and 2 combos of A9. I would assume sets are fast playing rather than call on dynamic boards. . .

I think, he can have all 4 combos of A9 as well as TT, 99, 44 so a total of 12 combos of boats, if we also give him T9 of diamonds. Its not that uncommon for people to check-call a set on the flop in a 3-bet pot on a A high board, and then probably plan on check-raising the turn, because they expect hands like AK/AQ to barrel off. I think, that T9 offsuit is a bit of a streatch, so fair enough to leave that out.
 
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