$5 NLHE 6-max: Set of 9s on 9AK flop

[GreenDaddy1]

Neither villain particularly wild or loose. SB 22/11/5 but a small sample of 37 hands. BB 18/9/1 from 163 hands.

Pretty deep here so called the large 3 bet with 99 after BB cold called it. Honestly it is a pretty expensive way to set mine, but on the button and deep stacked I was not inclined to fold it after the cold call. I'm probably folding this spot vs the SB only, I just dont have much info rather than that huge 3 bet to go on, though I know a 4 bet is an option instead at times. Thoughts on this? Occasionally on the right boards I can use my positional advantage to win the pot, but obviously I'm going to be calling and pretty much giving up on a lot of flops. The advantage is when I do hit the set chances are high villain(s) have hands that are going to pay me off.

Very interesting flop, chances of one or both of them having an A or K are high. I was expecting to be able to extract a lot of value with the set of 9s and easily hook one of them. Of course I am stuffed set over set, and some of the time one of them definitely has AA or KK. SB more likely than BB, I would think.

Anyway, pretty crazy action on the flop here after my raise. Sizing wise I didnt want to look too strong but wanted more money in the middle asap. With the following shovefest hard to put either of them on much other than AA, KK, AK and maybe A9 very rarely but I am inclined to dismiss that as neither seemed that loose. My gut said go for it. Equilab tells me I'm 38% vs both villains if I put them on AA, KK, AK. Price to call the all in was roughly 2:1, so I'm good here right? I mean the variance is going to be a real bitch lol, but coming out ahead in the long run by my shoddy late night maths.




Pacific Poker - $0.05 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

MP: 226.8 BB
CO: 126 BB
Hero (BTN): 184.8 BB
SB: 100.4 BB
BB: 359 BB
UTG: 108.2 BB

SB posts SB 0.4 BB, BB posts BB 1 BB

Pre Flop: (pot: 1.4 BB) Hero has 9♦ 9♣

fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to 2.4 BB, SB raises to 10.8 BB, BB calls 9.8 BB, Hero calls 8.4 BB

Flop: (32.4 BB, 3 players) 9♠ A♣ K♦
SB bets 14.4 BB, BB calls 14.4 BB, Hero raises to 30.8 BB, SB raises to 89.6 BB and is all-in, BB raises to 268.8 BB, Hero calls 143.2 BB and is all-in

Turn: (470 BB, 3 players) 2♠

River: (470 BB, 3 players) T♣

Spoiler

Hero shows 9♦ 9♣ (Three of a Kind, Nines)

Main Pot [301.2 BB]: (Pre 63%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)
Side Pot#1 [168.8 BB]: (Pre 65%, Flop 91%, Turn 95%)

SB shows A♦ K♣ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)

Main Pot [301.2 BB]: (Pre 18%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)

BB shows A♥ K♠ (Two Pair, Aces and Kings)

Main Pot [301.2 BB]: (Pre 19%, Flop 4%, Turn 2%)
Side Pot#1 [168.8 BB]: (Pre 35%, Flop 9%, Turn 5%)

Hero wins 286.2 BB
Hero wins 160.4 BB

 

[Sidetracked]

If anyone is ever folding their set of 9s on that board after the preflop action, they will never make money playing poker.

 

[braun_kan]

Wow what a nail-biter pot. Happy it worked out! The math checks out for a calling on the flop. If you had an even deeper stack then it would be trending towards a fold. NH.

As far as pre-flop goes I think the call is good. We are getting 26% pot odds to call and have a 12% chance to flop a set with potentially huge implied odds. I think it is around 30% chance that 99 will hit the flop as an overpair or better so there are quite a few playable boards especially in position.

BR79 lists 66+ in his calling range IP against someone with a 5% 3-bet stat:
https://www.blackrain79.com/2017/09/how-to-defend-against-3-bets.html

 

[300HPGOD]

I think calling pre is fine since you already have the raise and the caller in front. If you only had one villain then I think its not the best call but with this situation where that much is already in and you are closing the action I like it. Plus you have position here which is important for the times you do hit as you will have an easier time extracting the value.

I do think you flop raise should be a little bigger but I do agree with raising there and in the end the min raise is okay. When we have that action in front of us IM liking it because I think we may be beat here set over set by SB at times but I would be fine with that since BB is the larger stack and doubt they over called there with KK or AA (possible but I doubt it) so this is a call all the time. I cant see a case for folding here as at least one of them is having AK a decent amount of the time so that set blocks the other villain. You ran into the best scenario here but even if SB has us you are winning the side pot against the other villain much of the time and that would make you about even for the hand.

 

[John A]

Don't think I'm almost ever raising that flop after a bet and call. So dry and raising after a bet and call and just calling a 3-bet pre, screams of a set, especially when this deep. I mean, what in the world could your range be? I'm laying my hand down if I'm BB all day and feeling good about it.

Glad it worked out... sometimes the cards fall into place perfectly.

 

[fundiver199]

Preflop
I think, this is a very mandatory defend, especially when you opened from BTN, and you are deep against BB. Its not purely a setmine also. Sometimes you can get to showdown without improving and be good against hands like AK, AQ or bluffs, that whiffed. Even smaller pairs might sometimes be 3-bet SB vs. BTN.

Flop
As John A say, raising here is a very unbalanced play, because you have no draws, that want to raise on that flop. The preflop 3-bettor also has a big range and nut advantage, because he can have AA, KK and AK, and you typically cant. Maybe sometimes AK, but certainly not AA or KK. Anyways you did raise, and when this action unfolds, you have to go with your hand and pray, you are against two AK´s and not someone with AA or KK.

This time you were, and it was of course a dream spot for you with two opponent having the same hand and blocking each others outs. Funnily enough I just posted a hand in "bad beats", where the exact same situation unfolded. Only I was one of the unlucky players with top two pair and 4,5% equity on the flop

 

[GreenDaddy1]

Thanks guys.

So to be clear, if we call on the flop, are we always still getting it in here, but just keeping more of their hands that are not sets of As and Ks in play? Ie letting them hang themselves when we're ahead rather than being hopeful of bad calls or meeting AK? And therefore getting more value, I gather.

I was thinking so much about their range I honestly forgot to consider how they might perceive mine. Pretty good lesson there.

 

[Vallet]

This is a very good flop. SB and BB block each other and this is difficult to assume. I thought one of them had a stronger hand. For example, this one.
https://www.cardschat.com/replayer/624Pt0s2o
Then you wouldn't be able to fold with a set.

 

[zuker]

well played!